FRIDAY, JANUARY 5, 2024
A failure to adjust: A front-page report in the New York Times carried some welcome news.
The report appeared on Saturday morning, December 30. It reported a sharp decline in murders during this past year.
Arango and Robertson did the reporting. Headline included, their report started like this:
After Rising During Pandemic, Murders Fell Sharply in 2023
Detroit is on track to record the fewest murders since the 1960s. In Philadelphia, where there were more murders in 2021 than in any year on record, the number of homicides this year has fallen more than 20 percent from last year. And in Los Angeles, the number of shooting victims this year is down more than 200 from two years ago.
The decrease in gun violence in 2023 has been a welcome trend for communities around the country, though even as the number of homicides and the number of shootings have fallen nationwide, they remain higher than on the eve of the pandemic.
In 2020, as the pandemic took hold and protests convulsed the nation after the murder of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis, the United States saw the largest increase in murders ever recorded. Now, as 2023 comes to a close, the country is likely to see one of the largest—if not the largest—yearly declines in homicides, according to recent F.B.I. data and statistics collected by independent criminologists and researchers.
The rapid decline in homicides isn’t the only story. Among nine violent and property crime categories tracked by the F.B.I., the only figure that is up over the first three quarters of this year is motor vehicle theft...
According to FBI data and other statistics, homicides were substantially down last year, as compared to the number recorded in 2022.
Arango and Robertson included several points of caution about these preliminary figures. Our only interest today concerns the way they described the situation in Detroit.
Homicides were down in many cities last year, as the reporters note. That said, they started with that statement about Detroit. Later, they added an effusive wrinkle:
Detroit is on track to record the fewest murders since the 1960s.
[...]
The city of Detroit is on track to record the lowest number of homicides since 1966, a remarkable milestone even given its substantially smaller population today. Local officials credited an aggressive effort to jump-start the criminal justice system, which had largely stalled in the pandemic.
“We know why violent crime soared in America,” said Mayor Mike Duggan at a news conference this month. “The criminal courts shut down. You couldn’t put 12 jurors in a room.”
When it comes to Detroit, that's all they wrote! We decided to fact-check the reporters' claim about that "remarkable milestone," in which they compared the number of homicides in Detroit last year to the number in 1966.
According to Arango and Robertson, Detroit has achieved "a remarkable milestone even given its substantially smaller population today." But how much smaller is that population? We decided to check it out:
Population of Detroit:
1966: 1.6 million (est.)
2023: 620,000 (est.)
It's come down a long way, baby! That said, here are the recorded numbers of homicides in Detroit for those two years:
Homicides in Detroit:
1966: 214
2023: 252
Back then, the city was almost three times as big. It had substantially fewer homicides.
By our calculations, what follows is the approximate homicide rate for the two years in question:
Approximate homicide rate in Detroit:
1966: 13.4 per 100,000
2023: 40.6 per 100,000
How remarkable does last year's milestone look after that basic statistical adjustment?
What we have in that news report is the latest failure to adjust. Sometimes, reporters fail to adjust for inflation. Sometimes, though, other failures to adjust may find their way into print.
According to CNN, homicides last year were down by 18.4% in Detroit as compared to 2022. That's a sensible type of comparison. It seems to us that the Times reporters should have just left it at that.
Innocent question here: is Detroit basically empty now? Sounds like a cool place to move to, what with its already well set up structure and heritage.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, the 60- year comparison is meaningless. I suspect that these younger journalists now have no sense of the past, or exactly how much 1966 differed from almost any time afterwards, everywhere.
A problem with moving to a shrunk Detroit is underfunded pensions. Pensions should have been fully funded when the covered employees were working, but in many cities they weren't. Future Detroit residents will have to pay big taxes to pay pensions to the many city employees who were working there when the city was much larger.
DeleteThis idea of fully funding pensions almost never happens anywhere, in businesses or public orgs, without mandating it.
DeleteIt IS mandated. Businesses must obey the mandate, at least formally. They're OK as long as an actuary approves their pension fund amount. No doubt some businesses take advantage by under-funding. A few businesses overfund, because that reduces taxable earning s and defers income tax.
DeleteAFAIK municipalities are also required to fully fund, but cities seem to have the power to ignore this requirement if they want to. And, of course, they can underfund by finding an actuary who approves their level of funding.
Cities with dramatic drops in population are caught in death spiral. As the population drops, the per person obligation of the remaining population grows. That means higher taxes and worse city services. Those problems encourage more people to move away. If only a single person were left, s/he would be fully responsible for the entire unfunded pension liability.
Everyone knows Detroit has had a lot of problems. What’s your point? You can’t generalize from Detroit to other different cities.
DeleteMy point is: Cities with underfunded pensions that experience dramatic drops in population are caught in a financial death spiral.
DeleteMost of the lead-poisoning crime wave came after 1960.
ReplyDeleteCars were invented in the 1920s and lead has been around in paint and other products (water pipes, dishes, toy soldiers for example) for a long time. I think you are wrong about attributing the crime wave to after 1960, when the abatement projects were all after 1960.
DeleteThere was a crime wave in the 1930s from lead paint. The economic boom after WWII brought gas-guzzling cars with leaded fuel. Kids exposed to lead when two or three years old have an elevated risk to be criminals in their teens and adulthood.
DeleteThis more controversial than Drum acknowledges.
DeleteIMO Democrats like to blame various problems on lead because that allows them to avoid acknowledging that some of their policies haven't worked and might have even been counter-productive.
DeleteDavid, lead interferes with brain development. It doesn’t care about policy or politics. It’s like methane and carbon dioxide, which absorb infrared light, regardless of policy, politics, or economics.
DeleteLead and carbon just don’t care.
You would think David would have learned this after Trump's disastrous attempt to gaslight COVID.
DeleteWe all agree: students have the right to call for Palestine to be free, from the river to the sea.
ReplyDeleteNo one put any students in jail for doing that, and the presidents who were fired defended the right of students to say such things. Too bad you couldn't defend those presidents here (and elsewhere) yourself but perhaps you only care about Palestine and not the costs to anyone else.
DeleteI’m an anonymouse. You don’t know what I’ve said about other issues.
Deleteaddressing @5:29. don’t respond if that wasn’t you
DeleteYou still don’t know what I’ve said about other issues.
Deleteso what?
DeleteKevin:
ReplyDeletehttps://jabberwocking.com/listening-in-on-republicans/
Homicides are way down compared to last year and during the pandemic, not down compared to before the pandemic. The 1966 comparison is specious. Why is Somerby even mentioning it? The reporter only brings up 1966 in order to say that the current rate is lower than any year since 1966. Is Somerby suggesting that there are far fewer people in Detroit compared to last year? If so, those are the numbers he should be furnishing to make his case.
ReplyDeleteThis is a stupid nitpick because homicides are down all over the country (but not compared to pre-covid numbers) and no one is arguing that there is any magic involved. Most of our larger cities have increased in population, not decreased like Detroit (making Detroit an anomaly). If the decline in population were responsible for the homicide decrease compared to last year (not 1966), you wouldn't expect to see such a widespread phenomenon.
So, if Somerby is not making the argument that this is an artefact of population change, why is he bringing this up at all? It adds nothing but confusion to a straightforward and true report.
Somerby says: "According to CNN, homicides last year were down by 18.4% in Detroit as compared to 2022. That's a sensible type of comparison. It seems to us that the Times reporters should have just left it at that."
I think Somerby might have noted his quibble, shrugged and then written about something else that is actually worth people's time to consider. This is just spreading the stupid and Somerby said earlier this morning that he is against stupid.
He bring up 1966 because the reporters did. They used it to underscore what they called "remarkable milestone" and implied the changes since 1966 represented a significant improvement in the city's homicide rates over a long time span. Somberby considers this misleading because of their failure to adjust the population base rate. I can see where you would think it is a nitpick. It's OK to disagree and feel hurt.
DeleteI think it is stupid to make such a fuss over one offhand true remark that affects nothing about the report. My feelings aren’t hurt — my time has been wasted.
DeleteYou and Somerberry are both making basically the same point.
DeleteIt's okay to feel like the decision you made to spend your time reading the essay was a mistake. That's common in natural.
(the 1966 comment was not exactly true. The writers committed a base rate fallacy as Summersby accurately pointed out.)
DeleteThe reporter only said murders were the lowest since 1966. That is a fact. I agree that the rate matters but this was said in the context of a comparison with last year, where the general population is closely similar, so Somerby’s complaint is irrelevant.
DeleteSo, you feel the year over year comparison is a more sensible type of comparison and Somerby should just leave it at that. That makes sense.
DeleteYes, and I think Somerby manufactured a complaint because he likes to portray reporters as unreliable because it undermines faith in our press, which is a cornerstone of democracy. This is a nothingburger.
DeleteI'm more interested in reason and rational debate grounded in objective facts, logical reasoning, and evidence rather than subjective speculations on one's personal motivations. Subjective speculations on one's personal motivations repulses rational debaters but it is common for a lot of us to turn to that tactic. So, I understand you feel the way you do in issuing personal conjectures over logical reasoning. Thanks.
DeleteThere is a pattern here of Somerby manufacturing trivial nitpicks in order to portray the press as incompetent. He makes plenty of mistakes himself. None of that is subjective. Somerby’s website is searchable. No, I will not spend any time documenting anything for you.
DeleteIt would have helped if Bob had interpreted 'since' correctly. Of course the aggregate number for 1966 is going to be lower than 2023. The less-unuseful comparison would be to 1967, when there were 281 homicides. Then you can argue over rates un-distracted.
DeleteIt's subjective unless you document it. But I understand how you feel. It's OK to feel frustrated and like someone has hidden, nefarious motivations. Especially if it challenges your deeply held beliefs. There's nothing to be ashamed of deciding to compulsively write and ruminate about these subjective feelings. Although I trust you are seeing a professional to help you come to terms with it. Mental health is complex and unique to each individual. Thanks for sharing.
DeleteAmerican's trust in media has fallen to a historic low. Maybe it's because a random blogger accurately nitpicks their mistakes in order to make them seem incompetent.
DeleteOr maybe it is something else.
It is documented. All of Somerby’s essays are part of his archive so anyone can read them. I’ve already explained what he did today, which is not subjective but obvious, especially to anyone trained in statistics. A little bit of knowledge, like Somerby’s affection for calculating baserates, leads him to think this reporter made an error when the actual comparison is to 2022, not 1966. The mention of 1966 distracts Somerby so that he ignores the larger meaning of what is being said.
DeleteYour patronizing psychobabble is annoying but you don’t seem to have any real expertise about statistics or psychology. No one was saying the murder rate was better than in 1966. Somerby often goes off on these meaningless tangents because (1) he ignores context, (2) he loses track of the main point, (3) he is motivated to find fault, (4) he thinks a trivial gotcha invalidates everything else said, (5) his knowledge of stats is superficial.
You sound like a freshman psych major applying the contents of you Psych 101 textbook to everyone you meet. You sound silly doing that.
@11:21. What Somerby does can’t be helping. It supplements the full-scale attack by the right. The press isn’t perfect but disinformation and propaganda are worse. We need to defend truth.
Delete11:30 Thank you for your constructive criticism and for providing more theories about his motivations and additional unique interpretations of this essay. You are important and deserve your say. Many people still defend and support the media even as it evolves into an anachronism in the age of the digital revolution and diversified information channels. Many people don't even realize the media is becoming an anachronism before our very eyes. Some, very, very few, but some still even trust it. It's an interesting topic that Somerby has thankfully documented for people in the future to review. I appreciate your statistical and psychological expertise and imaginative theories.
DeleteIrrational obsessions can have an impact on daily life and cause considerable anxiety but it happens to the best of us. Don't be ashamed. A mental health professional can provide guidance and support in understanding and managing these feelings.
Delete"The press isn’t perfect but disinformation and propaganda are worse. We need to defend truth."
DeleteAs we all know, Biden has been found guilty by 2 federal courts of acts of “coerced censorship” and has been found to have “coerced or significantly encouraged social media platforms to moderate content” in violation of the First Amendment. The full-scale attack by the right seems worse though . Biden “coerced the platforms to make their moderation decisions by way of intimidating messages and threats of adverse consequences” and “significantly encouraged the platforms’ decisions by commandeering their decision-making processes” but those are old crimes. Trump is more important. Trump is a threat to democracy. If he is reelected he will become a dictator and begin a campaign of assassinating petty criminals (according to a major mainstream journalist). This is more important. We need to support the Biden administration's defense of democracy through censorship, trying to throw their political opposition into jail, and attempts to remove any other people from the ballot. How can Democracy survive the full-scale attack by the right without these patriotic moves by Biden?
It's that, or vote for fascists.
DeleteVote for the party who's trying to have their competition thrown in jail, who have been found to perpetrate “the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history” and who won't allow their own party members to decide who they want in a primary by forcing through a candidate that members of their own party overwhelmingly don't want ... or for the fascists.
DeleteGood thing no one is being asked to hold two contradictory ideas in one's mind simultaneously. ;)
10:28,
DeleteIf you're ever in Texas, look me up. I'll pay for your first three abortions.
Bill Ackman"s wife has been found to have plagiarized multiple paragraphs in her MIT dissertation, but that's all right because she has owned up to her mistakes and is moving on. No further comment from Dr. Neri Oxman nor her husband are expected. Nothing to look at here except the karma.
ReplyDeleteExcept for karma and all the Ivory Tower feet of clay.
DeleteYou couldn’t do one tenth as well at academic writing or research as Dr Gay because you don’t know the meanings of basic words. You need to shut up about her feet of clay you ignorant slob. This was a right wing hit job orchestrated by Chris Rufo and has nothing to do eith her competence. You wouldn’t survive one day at Harvard.
DeleteAn accusation can be made by a bad person for bad reasons and still be true.
DeleteOr false.
DeleteAnonymouse 9:12pm, no, it wasn’t a right wing hit job. The lady couldn’t get get a kind word from Penny Pritzker until it was likely that were trying to persuade her to go quietly.
DeleteNo, I don’t have to be an academic to ascertain just how readily this cohort will jettison standards for people with the right views, connections, and ethnicity.
Chris Rufo isn’t exactly an heir to a fortune or Rahm Emanuel’s brother, they could have easily ignored him.
Look under your couch cushions for some change. You need to buy a clue.
Rahm’s brothers are Zeke, a doctor, and Ari, a businessman.
DeleteWho could have ignored Christopher Rufo? The Right-wing New York Times? That's not how corporate-owned media, who crave tax breaks work.
DeleteYou can never trust a businessman. I am Karl Marx and/ or the modern Conservative movement.
DeleteRufo announced he was going to get her fired. It was absolutely a hit job that the media participated in.
DeleteAnonymouse 10:08pm, have you ever considered looking at the last names of the very capable people who have run the NYT?
DeleteAnonymouse 10:06pm:
Deletehttps://provost.upenn.edu/person/ezekiel-emanuel
Are you implying there is some Jewish conspiracy afoot? Do you go around identifying Jewish people by their names? Or their noses? A visit to the Holocaust Museum will show you how the Nazis did it. Rufo said he would get Gay fired. You right wing scum own this one.
DeleteAnonymouse 10:26pm, no conspiracy any more than Pres Biden’s political stance on Israel is a conspiracy.
DeleteIt’s the typical machinations that play out when views of powerful people collide.
It ain’t Chris Rufo or Elise Stefanik calling the shots.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/us/politics/israel-biden-letter-gaza-cease-fire.html
That’s total bullshit.
DeleteAnonymouse 11:09pm, Chris and Elise send their best wishes to you.
DeleteWhat about your neo-nazi friends?
DeleteI don’t have any friends who say “From the river to the sea”.
DeleteRufo isn’t your friend.
DeleteCecelia, I don’t understand what point you’re making about Zeke Emanuel.
DeleteNo one my friend if they’re mouthing that chant.
DeleteYou?
This is an internecine dispute in your camp, dimwit.
Anonymouse 11:38pm, that’s because you didn’t read Bob’s blog on him, though you likely commented on it ten times.
DeleteCecelia, do you just prefer not to be understood?
DeleteAnonymouse 11:43pm, Bob wrote a blog on Mr. Emanuel and his reaction to student priests against Israel.
DeleteFind it.
Protests, rather
DeleteThanks Cecelia. I checked out their last names.
DeleteThey all seem to be the names of people who run a Right-wing newspaper, who crave corporate tax breaks.
BTW, you should checkout the last names of NHL players.
Anonymouse 7:29pm, they all crave corporate tax breaks and exemptions for businesses that will put money into the campaigns of their candidates, their social engineering theories and/or globalist hopes and dreams, and money into their pockets. Let’s not forget power.. Both sides.
DeleteU.S. policy toward Israel is correct. Policy that punishes for speech is incorrect. That’s a war that’s going on in your party.Congress was only too happy to jump in at the request of some of your powerful constituents. Chris Rufo doesn’t mean squat to Harvard, Inc. and they would never have paid him a moment’s worth of attention if they hadn’t been alarmed about what was happening on college campuses amongst the leftists and with the people who are supposed to be serving the president and championing his policies.
Cecelia, I'm not asking what point Zeke was making. I'm saying that I don't understand what point you were making by referring to him.
Delete"Chris Rufo isn’t exactly an heir to a fortune or Rahm Emanuel’s brother, they could have easily ignored him."
WTF?
" they all crave corporate tax breaks and exemptions for businesses that will put money into the campaigns of their candidates, their social engineering theories and/or globalist hopes and dreams, and money into their pockets. Let’s not forget power.. Both sides."
DeleteBoth the rich and the poor equally?
Can you provide me the names of the homeless people who are CEOs at Fortune 1000 companies?
Cece,
DeleteAre you suggesting that Harvard, Inc. could have just ignored the Right-wing rags and the Stefanik's of the world?
Certainly I, unlike Bob Somerby, believe everyone should ignore "the Others", but I'd be surprised if they didn't get pushback from the media mouthpieces who like the tax corporate breaks. I'd also be surprised if you and David in Cal wouldn't cry about "censorship" if Harvard, Inc. rightfully ignored them.
Anonymouse 8:52am, no, you do understand that Chris Rufo carries no weight with Harvard or any other elite university.
Delete“Zeke” is someone they will hear out. Rightly so.
Dr. Emanuel and others are alarmed about the rhetoric in campus protests, and Emanuel want changes made to the entire educational process.
Gay had been coached to say as little as possible during her appearance in congress. She mouthed no sentiments toward their goal. She came off as incoherent and as flaky as some of the protesters. That was not what concerned parents and donors wished to hear.
I thought Gay would manage to survive this brouhaha that is going on within academia and the WH (we’ve even seen it here amongst anonymices) She did not.
Rufo was only a means.
https://www.thedp.com/article/2023/10/penn-ezekiel-emanuel-nyt-opinion-piece-moral-liberal-education
You have shit for brains if you listen to a word Rufo says.
DeleteAnonymouse 10:28am, it’s anonymices who are cluelessly attributing power and influence to Chris Rufo.
DeleteWhen Rufo speaks, the Ivy League must listen…
You guys have the awareness of a six-year-old.
Perhaps “liberals” such as Bob Somerby should have, I don’t know, supported Gay, rather than writing post after post about her failure, just like the New York Times wrote tons of front page articles about … Gay’s failures. Just sayin’.
DeleteRufo is a clown and anyone who believes a word he says is a fool. Rufo is the dope who has people talking about how CRT is being taught in grammar schools.
DeleteBTW, the correct response to those who say CRT is taught in grammar schools is to point and laugh at their gullibility.
You live in Baltimore and you don’t bring our homicide reduction in 2023 into your post about Detroit? Or maybe you were just fine with The Sun’s and The Banner’s reporting on the homicide reduction.
ReplyDeleteHomicide reduction is good.
DeleteAbortion-rights advocates have enough signatures to put their proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot in Florida.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/05/florida-abortion-rights-amendment-00133938
Biden is going to win the Presidency in a landslide. Again.
DeleteCecelia had a couple of good days, but now she’s worse than David, as usual. I am Corthy.
ReplyDeleteAnonymouse 9:06pm, actually those were a couple of my grouchy days. I’m back to being my sweet self.
DeleteSo you were trying to say that Harvard can’t ignore Zeke Emanuel.
DeleteThey will, at the very least, give the appearance of not ignoring Dr. Emanuel. That would be a prudent move.
DeleteThey certainly did made a move for Len Blavatnik.
Len, who was born in the Soviet Union, is a big political donor. He also owns most of Warner Music Group.
Deletehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Len_Blavatnik
Blavatnik is also Jewish, a billionaire, donor to Harvard, and a close friend of Netanyahu.
DeleteAnonymouse 1:48pm, read the Wiki bio, but found this info irrelevant.
Len is a friend of a friend of President Putin. Cecelia didn’t think that was worth noting.
DeleteHe’s also a friend to Trump. You didn’t see that?
DeleteLen has a wife and four kids, but Cecelia doesn’t care.
DeleteAnonymouse 3:57pm, neither does Harvard.
DeleteHe has five kids.
He’s a good family man. I admire him. When I have to make a difficult decision, I ask myself what Len would do.
DeleteAnonymouse 8:18pm, Harvard wishes it had been that savvy.
DeleteI love Len. I am Cavvy.
DeleteDavid’s comment about lead brought him back down to Cecelia’s level. I am Horby.
ReplyDelete