EXPERTS, PROFESSORS AND JOURNOS: Fictitions!

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2015

Part 2—Score gains in Grade 12 math:
Have high school seniors been doing less well in math in recent years?

In theory, that’s an important question. In practice, such questions mainly exist to let our journalists and “educational experts” repeat standard establishment narratives:

Nothing is working in our schools! Our teachers, with their infernal unions, have foiled education reform!

Have high school seniors been doing less well in math? For various reasons, it’s a hard question to answer. But as you may recall, the Washington Post seemed to think it was up to the task on Thursday, September 3.

That morning, the paper offered a gloomy, front-page report as part of our annual back-to-school pseudo-reporting. With apologies, we’ll post its opening nugget again, as we did last week.

Nick Anderson did the reporting. Needless to say, a leading “educational expert” was instantly cited as Anderson offered gloomy thoughts about the performance of high school seniors, both on the SATs and on some unnamed “federal tests:”
ANDERSON (9/3/15): Scores on the SAT have sunk to the lowest level since the college admission test was overhauled in 2005, adding to worries about student performance in the nation’s high schools.

The average score for the Class of 2015 was 1490 out of a maximum 2400, the College Board reported Thursday. That was down 7 points from the previous class’s mark and was the lowest composite score of the past decade. There were declines of at least 2 points on all three sections of the test—critical reading, math and writing.

The steady decline in SAT scores and generally stagnant results from high schools on federal tests and other measures reflect a troubling shortcoming of education-reform efforts. The test results show that gains in reading and math in elementary grades haven’t led to broad improvement in high schools, experts say. That means several hundred thousand teenagers, especially those who grew up poor, are leaving school every year unready for college.

“Why is education reform hitting a wall in high school?” asked Michael J. Petrilli, president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, a think tank. “You see this in all kinds of evidence. Kids don’t make a whole lot of gains once they’re in high school. It certainly should raise an alarm.”
“It is difficult to pinpoint a reason for the decline in SAT scores,” Anderson said, making a statement which fell just short of a lie. In fact, the SATs can’t be used for making these kinds of comparisons, a basic fact Petrilli noted in a blog post later that day. But even as Anderson pimped some very familiar gloom with a bungled front-page report, Petrilli seemed to support his overall gloomy assessment.

Have high school seniors been on the skids? Is math achievement on the decline? Anderson seemed to be saying just that, and his elite “educational expert” seemed to be agreeing.

“You see this in all kinds of evidence,” the expert reliably said. As part of this scripted recitation, Anderson made a gloomy reference to those “federal tests,” which were said to show “generally stagnant results.”

To what “federal tests” was Anderson referring? He never explained, but the answer is clear—he was referring to the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the widely-praised “gold standard” of domestic educational testing.

Are high school seniors stagnating on the NAEP, as Anderson gloomily said? Not exactly, no! No, it seems that they are not, as we will show you below.

Beyond that, a word of warning: as with the SATs, so too with the Grade 12 NAEP! There’s a basic reason why it’s hard to make reliable comparisons over time with NAEP testing in Grade 12—a basic problem which doesn’t obtain with NAEP testing in Grade 4 and Grade 8.

Petrilli identified that problem too, in his blog post later that day. But in the Washington Post, it was all gloom and doom, just as the funders prefer!

Tomorrow, we’re going to take you through Petrilli’s full blog post. In our view, it’s an intellectual and/or moral disgrace—the kind of work which helps us see how utterly faux our educational discourse actually is.

For today, let’s set ourselves a simpler task. Let’s look at Grade 12 math scores on those “federal tests” over the past ten years. How “stagnant” have those math results actually been?

People, let’s break every rule in the book—let’s take a look at the record! First, a bit of background:

The NAEP conducts two major parallel studies. It conducts the so-called “Main NAEP,” which test students in Grades 4, 8 and 12.

(Drop-outs don’t get tested.)

The NAEP also conducts the so-called “Long-Term Trend Study,” which tests 9-year-old students, 13-year-old students and 17-year-old students, no matter what grade they’re in.

(Once again, drop-outs don’t get tested. This becomes an important fact in Grade 12 and 17-year-old testing, a point we’ll discuss tomorrow.)

For today, let’s ignore the statistical problem caused by high school drop-outs. Let’s stick to a simpler question: How have actual high school seniors been doing on those federal tests?

Another small bit of background:

The Grade 12 math test on the Main NAEP was revised in 2005. In the best direct comparison we currently have, we can compare math scores attained in 2005 with math scores attained in 2013. (Results from the 2015 testing aren't available yet.)

How have high school seniors been doing in math? Over the most recent eight-year period we can review, these gains in average scores have been recorded:
Gains in average scores, 2005-2013
Main NAEP, Grade 12 math
National public schools

White students: 4.32 points
Black students: 5.24 points
Hispanic students: 7.67 points
Asian-American students: 11.08 points
Those are the actual score gains recorded by the nation’s actual high school seniors during that actual eight-year period. And yes, the NAEP tests representative samples of high school seniors, unlike the SAT!

An obvious question arises:

Are those significant score gains? Or should those gains be viewed as a type of “stagnation?”

We’d love to see some actual journalists and educational experts address that important question. For today, we’ll cite the familiar, rough rule of thumb we’ve cited many times in the past.

When reporting results from the NAEP, journalists frequently apply a rule of thumb. We’ve always referred to it as a very rough rule of thumb, although journalists will sometimes apply it quite literally when it produces gloomy results about the daunting size of our “achievement gaps.”

Journalists almost never apply the rule of thumb to students’ score gains. In fact, they virtually never discuss such gains, except to deny that any such gains have occurred. But according to this very rough rule of thumb, ten points on the NAEP scale is often compared to one academic year.

Applying that very rough rule of thumb, those look like substantial score gains on the Grade 12 NAEP. That’s especially true when we consider the statistical role played by high school drop-outs, which we’ll discuss tomorrow.

(To see Petrilli discuss it in his blog post, just click here.)

Good grief! If we apply that very rough rule of thumb, black high school seniors gained more than half a year in average math achievement over an eight-year period. The gains by Hispanic and Asian-American high school seniors were even larger.

Unless we’re being completely irrational, that would count as rapid growth. Until you read the Washington Post! Or until you hear the familiar words of one of our well-funded “experts.”

Why would Anderson say that scores have stagnated on those “federal tests?” There’s a shaky answer to that question, which we’ll explore tomorrow.

But when we do, we’ll look at the full blog post Petrilli offered on the same day he was quoted in the Post. In our view, his blog post is a work of intellectual and/or moral squalor.

Michael Moore explained this aspect of our culture back in 2003. “We live in fictitious times,” he said. “We live in the time where we have fictitious election results that elect a fictitious president.”

Those election results were stone-cold sober compared to our education reporting. We know of no other part of our public discourse where the “fictitions” are so familiar and so dominant.

These fictitions are shouted in our ears by our journalists and our “experts.” They dominated what appeared in the Washington Post that day.

On Thursday, we’ll return to those professors at Penn and their peculiar study. Tomorrow, let’s review what the expert said.

We think his blog post was a disgrace. But then, what else is new?

Tomorrow: Pure squalor—a scripted disgrace

Where the data come from: The National Center for Education Statistics produces tons of data from the NAEP. Unfortunately, there is no known way to make our “journalists” review, report or acknowledge the existence of such data.

Dearest darlings, it just isn’t done! In our education discourse, it’s narrative all the way down!

Back to the facts-in-themselves! If you want to examine Grade 12 math results from the Main NAEP, you’ll have to do these things:

For starters, just click this.
Then, click on MAIN NDE (Main NAEP Data Explorer).

After that, click on “I agree to the terms above.”

At that point, you’re on your own. But all the data are there

33 comments:

  1. Fictition = fiction

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  2. "Journalists almost never apply the rule of thumb to students’ score gains. In fact, they virtually never discuss such gains, except to deny that any such gains have occurred. But according to this very rough rule of thumb, ten points on the NAEP scale is often compared to one academic year."
    Bob Somerby

    Under "the rough rule of thumb" ten points is often compared to one academic year by Bob Somerby. Period.

    Journalists almost never apply it perhpas because, despite the many faults Somerby lays constantly at their clown shod feet, they know it is fiction too. Especially, but not limited to, putting your thumbprints on math scores.

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    Replies
    1. It is not fiction. It is rough. The lack of precision of the "rule of thumb" makes it inappropriate to use for technical purposes where greater accuracy is required. It doesn't make it useless. Non-technical readers of news reports do need to have the numbers put into some perspective. The rule of thumb is an appropriate way to do that and Somerby does not go beyond the roughness of the measure -- he cautiously says that it is a meaningful improvement, not a trivial gain.

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    2. Here is another example of something that has been explained to KZ repeatedly but which he ignores in order to repeat the same tired old criticisms of Somerby. Next he will cite a source that he continually misinterprets, a source that merely says you can't do statistics and draw conclusions using the "rule of thumb" because it isn't an accurate measure for those purposes. Deadrat, on several occasions, listed the wide range of other people besides Somerby who have referred to this same rule of thumb, yet KZ persists in calling this Somerby's invention.

      "Especially, but not limited to, putting your thumbprints on math scores."

      Here KZ distorts Somerby's past references to putting one's thumb on the scales. It is unclear whether KZ is being cute or really doesn't recognize the difference between thumbs and thumbprints. In either case, it makes no sense at all, except as something vaguely critical of Somerby.

      This is tiresome -- please stop.

      Delete
    3. Obama is often compared to Hitler.

      You remember Hitler, don't you @ 1:47? Many blame him for leading the world into World War II, which, according to some noted Daily Howler expert commenters, may still be going on because the US still has troops occupying Germany. That said, Eisenhower was the first post-war president, and then Korea started.

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    4. So here is a question for @ 1:47.

      If the "very rough" rule of thumb is 10 points is compared to one academic year, is the average 12th grade black student student doing ninth grade work or is the average white student performing at the level of a college junior?

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    5. 1:23 PM thinks he's a good liberal because he dissembles in going after Somerby to protect Rachel Maddow's reputation. In one of his many earlier attempts to sell this same criticism he, himself, actually once linked to this study [LINK] which he was hoping nobody would read:

      [QUOTE]>>> The reading and mathematics measures of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) have been, and continue to be, reported on scales that appear to have the properties of “cross-grade” scales: Reported scores are higher for 8th-grade students than for 4th-grade students, and higher for 12th-grade students than for 8th-grade students.

      [Assertion:] “One year’s growth is (approximately) x NAEP scale points”

      An example of the use of this kind of score interpretation appeared in a blog called “The Daily Howler” by Bob Somerby on April 7, 2010 [LINK], in the context of a commentary about a Washington Post editorial on the 2009 NAEP reading results...

      Historically, these scales were developed in ways that were intended to support cross-grade interpretation; however, the degree of support for and endorsement of such interpretations has varied over the past two decades.

      The Goals of This Paper

      This paper ultimately seeks to make two points: (1) Different evidence is needed to support the two [assertions including the one cited] above [and the other about the issue 3:11 PM raises], and (2) Insufficient evidence is currently available to support either category of interpretations for NAEP. Either further research is required to support either or both of these classes of interpretations, or greater clarity is needed in the presentation of NAEP results to discourage such interpretations. The conclusion of this essay will be that evidence can and should be assembled to support, and make more precise, interpretations of the first kind (“one year’s growth”), while interpretations of the second kind (cross-group comparisons across four-year spans) should be discouraged.

      Conditional “One Year’s Growth”

      If “one year’s growth” is to be useful as a value that makes points on the score scale more meaningful, it would be useful to know if the empirical average value of “one year’s growth” is very different for students at different levels of the score scale or
      Validity Issues Involved in Cross-Grade Statements About NAEP Results from different demographic backgrounds. Because values for “one year’s growth” are not currently available, the answers to these questions are unknown.

      However, values for the difference between NAEP results at grades 4 and 8 are available, and tabulated in various ways in Appendix A (for the 2009 reading assessment, for which the cross-grade scale is endorsed), and Appendix B (for the 2009 mathematics assessment, with its historical, but not maintained, cross-grade scale). Those values for “four years’ growth” give hints about what would happen if we knew “one year’s growth.”

      For reading, the values of growth from grade 4 to grade 8 are remarkably consistent across the range from low-performing (10th percentile) to high-performing (90th percentile) students, and across most demographic groups: They are largely in the range 40–45 points. There is a slight (and perhaps surprising) tendency for lower performing students to make larger gains.

      continued...

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    6. ...continued

      [QUOTE from the study continues]>>> The exceptions for reading are curious: Relatively high-performing students with disabilities show smaller gains (around 35 points) between grades 4 and 8, students in the Asian/Pacific Islander demographic classification exhibit slightly less growth (39 points for some levels), and Native American students show remarkably large gains from grades 4 to 8. (The latter may be associated with the very low scores for the lowest performing groups at grade 4.) English language learner (ELL) students show the smallest gains—around 30 points instead of the 40-something point gains that are typical for most.

      The picture is different for mathematics. A regular feature across all of the tables in Appendix B is that high-scoring students exhibit larger gains between grades 4 and 8—for all students the difference is 54 points at the 90th percentile versus 34 points at the 10th percentile. Aside from this, the pattern across demographic groups is similar to that for reading, except that the Asian/Pacific Islander group does not have lower than average gains.

      This all suggests that, for reading, one year’s growth may be fairly uniform across students, with a few unsurprising exceptions. What the results might be for mathematics is less clear: It may be that mathematics “builds on itself,” so that “the rich get richer” and large gains go with high scores. Or it may be that the unmaintained NAEP cross-grade mathematics scale is not the best way to examine the question. <<<[END QUOTE]

      Until a study weighs in with a rigorous conclusion as to what certain point differentials precisely suggest Somerby's standard is an entirely reasonable one for him to use in the meantime provided he continues to refer to it as a "rough rule of thumb."

      Delete
    7. 2:03 PM writes:

      That said, Eisenhower was the first post-war president, and then Korea started.

      Does this take on things have a tie in to a later season of "The Man in the High Castle" [LINK] series?

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    8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    9. Nearly all world conflicts have their roots in previous ones. American involvement in Korea was 1950-1953. Eisenhower was elected in 1952. I didn't mean to suggest that Eisenhower started Korean conflict. I just said Eisenhower was perceived as a postwar president in ways Truman was not. That should be uncontroversial if there weren't trolls trying to pick quarrels.

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    10. One has to hand it to CMike for his efforts to stick in his thumb and pull out a plum instead of a turd in defense of Somerby's statistical fiction.

      The final paragraph is, of course all CMike's, not the conclusion of the NAEP validation study. The key to what they come to conclude are in sentences CMIke quoted but did not highlight.

      The final italicized paragraph in his own second comment @ 8:14 would do Bob proud, but would be the first thing Somerby would attack if done by someone writing for, say, the New York Times or Washington Post. I particularly like the was he highlights portions of his own conclusion as if it were the work of someone else.

      Here is what CMike doesn't highlight from the NAEP's own study of Bob's rule of thumb.

      "Because values for “one year’s growth” are not currently available, the answers to these questions are unknown.

      "For reading, the values of growth from grade 4 to grade 8 are remarkably consistent

      "The picture is different for mathematics."

      I won't go into more detail. The simple fact is that there may be a rule of thumb that is reasonable for reading scores in grades 4-8. Nobody knows what it is, but one may be available some day. But Bob Somerby is not using a rule of thumb for reading test scores here in this post. He is doing it for math.

      He is not doing it for 4th to 8th grade. He is doing it for 12th grade. 12th grade math.

      Guess what CMike and all the Bobettes left in Howlerland? The 12th grade math tests don't use the 500 point score scale from which Bob pulled his 10 points equals one year of growth "very rough rule of thumb" out of his wrinkled derriere years and years ago. That point scale is used for tests given to 4th and and 8th graders. The NAEP math test given in the 12th grade uses a 300 point scale.

      The clever Bob defender could argue, well, since the point scale is smaller, those gains Bob has shown might represent even larger amounts of growth. Except nobody knows what they represent in terms of growth because "values for “one year’s growth” are not currently available" and because "the picture is different for mathematics."




      Delete
    11. Breaking news, @1:51 AM writes:

      The final paragraph is, of course all CMike's, not the conclusion of the NAEP validation study.

      What gave it away, the fact that my comments were in italics and the grafs from the study weren't or that the written in my own words final paragraph came immediately after that "<<<[END QUOTE]" tag?

      Look 1:51 AM, if you think you're doing the Lord's work keep at it. It's safer for you and everyone else you, otherwise, would be coming in contact with if this is how you're compulsively spending your time day after day.

      Delete
    12. @ 1:51 and CMike there is a solution if Somerby wishes to use NAEP and his rule of thumbs for high school students.

      He could use the NAEP Long Term Trends test instead of the Main NAEP test.

      This has the advantage of maintaining the 500 point scoring scale. In addition, the test wasn't recently revised, so results go all the way back to 1978.


      Delete
    13. CMike writes "1:23 PM thinks he's a good liberal because he dissembles in going after Somerby to protect Rachel Maddow's reputation."

      I won't join the argument over test scores. But even the casual Howler reader knows that "going after Somerby" on this issue has nothing to do with Maddow. The closest she comes to tests is her Friday "news dump" quiz show segment. If you want to suggest otherwise, Somerby has a bunch of bridges she wants to jump off of he can sell you.

      Delete
    14. 9:38 AM informs me:

      ..."going after Somerby" on this issue has nothing to do with Maddow.

      But, of course, even the "casual Howler reader" of these comment threads knows that 1:23 PM's "going after Somerby" doesn't need to have anything to do with the subject at hand. 1:23 PM is here in post after post after post, regardless of the topic and often with the first comment in the thread, ever deriding whatever argument Somerby is making, Somerby's personal life, the readership numbers for this blog, and the people who enjoy reading it regularly. So, go ahead, you tell me why 1:23 PM does this incessantly if it's not because he is seeking some sort of crazed revenge for Somerby's devastating criticisms of 1:23 PM's love object, Rachel Maddow.

      Delete
    15. She is amazing, that Spellcaster Rachel.

      Of course, prior to 2008 and her appearance on MSNBC, all evil could be traced back to Jack Welch and his boy band of Irish millionaires.

      I'm betting the love interest of the Commenter Who Is Omnipresent is actually Maureen Dowd. But then I go way back to the time Ike became the first postwar President, and then Korea started.

      Delete
    16. Maureen Dowd. I hadn't thought of that, it would make sense of it all.

      Delete
    17. CMike will be weighing in soon on how those evil clueless women have deceived us into thinking the Gender Wage Gap measures discrimination.

      If you take the low salaries of Black and Hispanic women into account, they lower the wage totals for everyone. And they are a faster growing component of our work force plus they have to take more time off because they have more babies.

      Delete
    18. This is all a big joke to @11:11. He has the privilege of receiving that higher pay and never having any babies. More likely he is on disability, ehich gives him plenty of time for trolling and also explains his mental deficits. Good luck to you, @11:11. (I could be more personal in my response to you if you would use your full name.)

      Delete
    19. This thread started off with a comment on Bob Somerby saying "ten points on the NAEP scale is often compared to one academic year."

      CMike invoked an NAEP Validity Panel Study to try and prove it was OK for Somerby to use his own "very rough rule of thumb." I went back to that study since he linked to it.

      The only person that NAEP study cited as using the "rough rule of thumb" was Somerby.

      Delete
    20. @ 9:14 makes an interesting suggestion. I think the reason Somerby doesn't use the Long Term Trend Study is that you can go back a long time and it shows you only need teeny tiny thumbs to measure the non existent progress over the last two decades.

      Delete
    21. @ 10:29 you can call me Mary. What should I call you?

      Delete
    22. My goodness, you are actually @ 11:29.

      Delete
  3. Michael Moore? Didn't he explain another aspect of our culture back in 2000? If memory serves, he was talking about a fictitous vote for that fictitous guy who became fictitous President or some guy named Gore.

    "The lesser of two evils, you still end up with evil,"

    ReplyDelete
  4. It’s fairly clear that no one cares about these topics. Beyond that they care twice as much as they did about MoDo's recent trip to Paris.

    ReplyDelete


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    ReplyDelete
  6. There is nothing quite as thrilling as reading another chapter in the Great Very Rough Rule of Thumb Debate on TDH.

    Keep it up, Bob.

    ReplyDelete


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  8. My Name is Anita.I will love to share my testimony to all the people in the forum cos i never thought i will have my boyfriend back and he means so much to me..The boy i want to get marred to left me 4 weeks to our wedding for another girl..,When i called her she never picked my calls,She deleted me on his facebook and he changed her facebook status from engaged to Single...when i went to her place of work he told his boss he dont want to see me..I lost my job as a result of this cos i cant get myself anymore,my life was upside down and everything did not go smooth with my life...I tried all i could do to have him back,all did not work out until i met a prophet when i Travelled to Africa to execute some business have been developing some years back..I told him my problem and all have passed through in getting her back and how i lost my job...he told me he gonna help me...i didn't believe that in the first place.but he swore he will help me out and he told me the reason why my girlfriend left me and also told me some hidden secrets.i was amazed when i heard that from him..he said he will cast a spell for me and i will see the results in the next couple of days..then i travel back to Us the following day and i called him when i got home and he said he's busy casting those spells and he has bought all the materials needed for the spells,he said am gonna see positive results in the next 2 days that is Thursday...My boyfriend called me at exactly 12:35pm on Thursday and apologies for all he had done ..he said,he never knew what she's doing and her sudden behavior was not intentional and he promised not to do that again.it was like am dreaming when i heard that from him and when we ended the call,i called the man and told him my girlfriend called and he said i haven't seen anything yet... he said i will also get my job back in 3 days time..and when its Sunday,they called me at my place of work that i should resume working on Monday and they gonna compensate me for the time limit have spent at home without working..My life is back into shape,i have my man back and we are happily married now with kids and i have my job back too.This man is really powerful..if we have up to 20 people like him in the world,the world would have been a better place..he has also helped many of my friends to solve many problems and they are all happy now..Am posting this to the forum for anybody that is interested in meeting the man for help.you can mail him to Dr.jartospellcaster@gmail.com I cant give out his number cos he told me he don't want to be disturbed by many people across the world..he said his email is okay and he' will replied to any emails asap..hope he helped u out too..good luck:Dr.jartospellcaster@gmail.com.Once Again His Email Address Is:Dr.jartospellcaster@gmail.com

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  9. My husband cheated on me for Almost three years. he ignore me for several months and left me with nothing, but i am happy today that Chief Nwaluta brought my husband back, I am so happy, Now my husband is all mine again. I can now say I'm happy again. Great spell from Chief Nwaluta, Chief Nwaluta is genuine. I truly believe in him and his spells. he is a professional. , My name is Sandra Gault and I live in Bryan Texas, My husband and i got married for more than 11 years and have gotten two kids. thing were going well with us and we are always happy. until one day my husband started to behave in a way i could not understand, i was very confused by the way he treat me and the kids. later that month he did not come home again and he called me that he want a divorce, i asked him what have i done wrong to deserve this from him, all he was saying is that he want a divorce that he hate me and do not want to see me again in his life, i was mad and also frustrated do not know what to do,i was sick for more than 2 weeks because of the divorce. i love him so much he was everything to me without him my life is incomplete. i told my sister and she told me to contact a spell caster, i never believe in all this spell casting of a thing. i just want to try if something will come out of it. i contacted Chief Nwaluta for the return of my husband to me, they told me that my husband have been taken by another woman, that she cast a spell on him that is why he hate me and also want us to divorce. then they told me that they have to cast a spell on him that will make him return to me and the kids, they casted the spell and after 1 week my husband called me and he told me that i should forgive him, he started to apologize on phone and said that he still love me that he did not know what happen to him that he left me. it was the spell that he Chief Nwaluta casted on him that make him come back to me today,me and my family are now happy again today. thank you Chief Nwaluta for what you have done for me i would have been nothing today if not for your great spell. i want you my friends who are passing through all this kind of love problem of getting back their husband, wife , or ex boyfriend and girlfriend to contact Chief Nwaluta,if you need his help you can contact him through his private E-mail:{ Nwalutaspelltemple@gmail.com } or you can contact him through his Web site :http://nwalutaspelltemple.blogspot.com. Thanks you Chief Nwaluta.

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