STARTING TOMORROW: What is truth?

MONDAY, JANUARY 25, 2021

And to what extent do we care?: Have we Americans possibly gotten lucky? Have we managed to avoid a predicted surge of Covid infections and deaths?

Yesterday, atop the front page in print editions, a news report in the Washington Post examined that question. Fenit Nirappil started his front-page report as shown:

NIRAPPIL (1/24/21): The United States appears to have avoided the worst-case coronavirus scenarios that officials feared would overwhelm hospitals in the aftermath of Christmas and New Year’s gatherings. But experts caution that the threat from the virus has not diminished and could intensify with the emergence of new variants.

Even as hospitalizations begin to stabilize, they do so from record heights. The country’s hospitals averaged more than 130,000 covid-19 patients a day over seven days this month, far exceeding summer and spring surges. The death toll from cases contracted before and after the holidays will stretch into February. Authorities reported nearly 4,500 deaths Wednesday, a new single-day record.

According to Nirappil, it seems we may have dodged a bullet, though things could still get worse.

A person could say that Nirappil was possibly hedging his bets. For ourselves, we were most struck by the last sentence we've highlighted, in which Nirappil told readers this:

"Authorities reported nearly 4,500 deaths Wednesday, a new single-day record."

Nirappil's statement can be defended as technically accurate. It could also be seen an example of cherry-picking of a familiar kind.

It's true! According to the Washington Post's data set, 4,440 deaths from Covid-19 were reported on Wednesday, January 20. That's almost "nearly 4,500 deaths," though it's closer to 4,400.

Something else in Nirappil's statement is true. Within the Post's data set, that was the highest number of Covid deaths reported for any single day since the pandemic began in March 2020. Inevitably, that may seem like a significant fact.

Then again, other things are true. Wednesday's reported number of deaths had been very high. But as we noted last Friday,  these were the numbers of Covid deaths reported on the three days before that:

Reported deaths from Covid-19:
Sunday, January 17: 2,068
Monday, January 18: 1,418
Tuesday, January 19: 2,166

Wednesday's number was very high. By way of comparison, Monday's number had been very low. And just for the record, these numbers—these numbers of "reported" deaths—followed a three-day holiday weekend, when the reporting anomalies which occur every week tend to be larger than usual.

As he started, Nirappil reported only one number from the previous week. Was that an example of solid reporting? Or was it "cherry-picking?"

There's no ultimate way to answer that question, but Nirappil omitted more information than he chose to include. Meanwhile, here's the way he and/or his editor chose to end his lengthy report:

NIRAPPIL: About 3,900 deaths were reported Friday in the United States, suggesting Wednesday’s peak may not be an anomaly. The seven-day average of deaths in the weeks after Thanksgiving hovered around 2,500.

“We are getting, in some way, numb to the numbers,” said John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital. “The numbers of hospitalizations, cases and death are still incredibly high. Even if we see a pullback, those numbers are still incredibly scary.”

As he closed his lengthy report, Nirappil made a comparison. Plainly, it was a comparison of the apples-to-oranges kind:

Nirappil compared the number of deaths reported on Friday (about 3,900) to the smaller average number in the weeks after Thanksgiving (about 2,500 deaths per day). In doing so, he showed that he knows about the important statistic known as the 7-day rolling average.

What he didn't say was this: 

After Friday's reporting, the 7-day average for the preceding week stood at 3,101 deaths per day. After Saturday's reporting was done, the 7-day average had dropped to 3,084. In other words:

Where the 7-day average once stood at "about 2,500 deaths" per day, it now stands at just over 3,000. That's an apples-to-apples presentation, although it still has its flaws.

There is no perfect way to report the number of Covid deaths. That said, there are plenty of ways to misreport the number of such deaths.

One such way involves the cherry-picking of individual days. To wit:

Even after November's election, Trump spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany would report the (lower) number of deaths reported on some particular weekend day, thereby giving the impression that things just weren't so bad. 

By way of contrast, people like Maddow and Tapper would reliably report the (higher) number of deaths reported on some particular midweek day, thereby pushing viewers' perceptions in the other direction.

No one reported the 7- or 14-day averages, the only respectable way to report such deaths. No one bothered explaining the weekly reporting glitch which drives numbers higher on midweek days, much lower over the weekend.

Nirappil picked the highest number, simply ignored the others. Eventually, he reported the 7-day averages post-Thanksgiving but ignored the 7-day average which obtained as his report went to press.

At present, that average is down by roughly ten percent from where it stood just ten days ago. That may be a holiday-based statistical glitch, or it may suggest that some modest improvement is taking place. 

At any rate, the current average—3,070 Covid deaths per day—is higher than it was at any point during the year 2020. That's a basic statement of fact, with high and low numbers thrown in.

Atop page one, in paragraph 2, Nirappil cited one number—the highest one-day total ever. He didn't mention the lower numbers which had come in the days before.

He didn't work with 7-day averages until the very end of his report. At that time, he offered an apples-to-oranges comparison instead of saying something like this:

"The seven-day average of deaths in the weeks after Thanksgiving hovered around 2,500. Today, the seven-day average stands at just over 3,000 deaths per day, though it may be leveling off."

Even there, the recent holiday weekend may be introducing noise into the statistics. But that point could be mentioned too, and at least you'd now be comparing apples to apples, with a word of caution thrown in.

We were struck by the way Nirappil (and his editor) shot that largest number right to the top of the pile. Cable stars have done that for months, even as McEnany was cherry-picking the smallest single-day numbers.

Nirappil's choice brought a question to mind. It's an anthropological question, and we plan to regard it that way.

Our questions goes like this:

To what extent are we humans wired to care about such entities as accuracy and truth? Enjoyably, we plan to discuss that question this week with respect to some well-known movies.

"What is truth?" Pontius Pilate once asked. Our own question will be somewhat different.

To what extent are we humans wired to care about such entities as accuracy and truth? This week, we'll examine the question with respect to the way major critics have reviewed certain films. Next week, we expect to move on to prevailing questions of gender and race.

Are we wired to care about truth? Or is it Storyline all the way down?

In our view, the answer to this is in no way clear, not even here in Our Town!

Tomorrow: Roger Ebert, Mel Gibson, three stars


23 comments:

  1. Somerby is truly a one-trick pony. And he beats that horse to death.

    No, we don't think we "got lucky" here in CA, especially in Los Angeles County, and today it was reported that they have identified a mutated strain of virus in CA that may account for the much higher number of cases here.

    Somerby thinks these daily averages mean something, but they must be taken in the larger context of what is happening in different locations and in relation to health care resources. Because these aren't just statistics -- they are a description of what is happening to real live people.

    Somerby seems to be arguing that it is wrong for a reporter to use numbers in serve of a larger narrative, but that narrative is a much more accurate descriptor of what is happening to people than Somerby's nitpicks are.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Are we wired to care about truth? Or is it Storyline all the way down?"

    Is Somerby wired to care about the truth? He assails Nirappil after acknowledging that:

    "Nirappil's statement can be defended as technically accurate."

    He goes on to accuse Nirappil of "cherry-picking" (the wrong term) because he disagrees with Nirappil's narrative that things are at an all-time high. Somerby says:

    "Something else in Nirappil's statement is true."

    Then Somerby goes on to complain about the holiday weekend and how it affected averages, arguing that the very low numbers reported during a holiday weekend make the reduced 7-day average the best statistic.

    But Somerby doesn't once think about the big picture, how those deaths are affecting actual people in different parts of the country. This pandemic is so damaging that no amount of average or adjusting by population size or any other game using statistics is going to distract people from the FACT that this is a high point in terms of covid-deaths for our nation. Nayappil is not exaggerating deaths. Those are real. Somerby's desire to minimize them is no more true a narrative than Nayappil's, which reflects the condition on the ground for most people, especially in hard-hit states.

    Who minimizes covid these days? The right, conservatives, especially Trump supporters. Who has been consistently minimizing covid stats and ignoring the suffering of those affected by covid? Somerby and Trump and conservatives.

    Somerby pretends that only Nayappil has a narrative. Somerby has one too. And he wouldn't recognize the truth if it bit him in the ass.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "No one reported the 7- or 14-day averages"

    There is no reason to consider an average which includes an artificially low number (due to a holiday or other reporting anomaly) as more accurate than a recent single-day figure (assuming no holiday or reporting anomaly).

    When you are dealing with data, you remove outliers (data points that are distorted by some artificial factor irrelevant to your research question). Kevin Drum might point out that a curve is a better way of showing the trend for covid than any single average (7 or 14 days), because it shows change over a time period. Nayappil's point is that the covid death figures have been increasing and are at a peak. That is shown in curves plotting covid deaths.

    Reporters have difficulty presenting graphs in their reports so they must use sentences with words and a few numbers. Their choices are meant to convey what is going on with covid overall, to people who may or may not be comfortable with statistics. Nayappil's choice of a high daily death rate to represent the FACT that covid is at its highest point so far in the pandemic, is appropriate to his overall point, which is TRUE and not a distortion or finagling of data. Somerby himself has not disputed that truth, although he uses the weasel word "technically true" to avoid acknowledging that technically true = true.

    Somerby is wrong to be complaining about this. He might have a point if he were critiquing a technical report, but that is not what is going on. People reading Nayappil want to know: (1) is covid getting better or worse, (2) am I in danger, (3) what is being done about the pandemic. To minimize the state of the covid pandemic, for example by using a rolling 14-day average of numbers that are lower in the past but increasing to the present day, is to lie with statistics. At this point, the actual daily deaths have never been higher and the best statistic is the one that reflects that truth, not Somerby's artificially low averages.

    ReplyDelete
  4. In a worsening pandemic, the larger number of reported deaths is followed by a rise in the weekly average. Thus, it’s perfectly fine to cite the very large numbers of reported deaths (4383 on 1/20 and 4008 on 1/21, according to the CDC; aside from 4/15/2020, all of the largest number of reported deaths during the pandemic have occurred this month.)

    There is nothing at all wrong with the Post article. The author is saying that some indicators show some hope of a turnaround, while others, such as the large spikes in reported deaths, give cause for worry.

    And that’s it.

    ReplyDelete
  5. “We were struck by the way Nirappil (and his editor) shot that largest number right to the top of the pile. Cable stars have done that for months, even as McEnany was cherry-picking the smallest single-day numbers.”

    It would at least be consistent if the Cable Stars (“liberal/mainstream” no doubt; Fox need not be thought of here), and apparently also Washington Post columnists, who all, according to Somerby, are in love with narrative, anti-Trump narrative to be exact, were to now start reporting the lowest numbers now that Biden is president.

    But what struck Somerby was the higher number that the columnist reported.

    The ways of the “liberal” press are inscrutable.

    ReplyDelete
  6. A lot of people don't understand the use of moving averages apparently.

    Interestingly, new cases seems to plateauing which will be good news if the trend continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 12:43
      You mean, like this, as reported in the Post story Somerby carps about:

      “Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said at a White House briefing Thursday that cases appeared to be plateauing, but he warned that it could be a temporary slowdown.”

      Here you have the crux of the story. The reporter did a perfectly fine job of explaining it.

      And if only Somerby had mentioned the number of cases, even once. But he didn’t. He only talked about deaths.

      Delete
    2. You do disagree with Somerby re. reporters overstating and misreporting the number of Covid deaths. I understand.

      Delete
    3. This reporter overstated and misreported nothing, 2:11.

      Delete
    4. @2:11 -- this is not a matter of opinion.

      Delete
  7. "NIRAPPIL (1/24/21): The United States appears to have avoided the worst-case coronavirus scenarios"

    See, dear Bob? I told you so.

    Now, as your zombie cult seized power, COVID The (formerly) Terrible is going to be nothing but a seasonal flu. Just wait a couple of days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump tried to gaslight a global pandemic like it was David in Cal.
      If Trump had just played-up how much COVID was killing people of color, Right-wingers would have drafted COVID as Trump's Vice Presidential candidate.

      Delete
  8. Here, by the way: Howie Carr, for your reading pleasure:

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01/21/without-trump-to-blame-virus-turns-the-corner/

    "Just as “the homeless” disappear whenever a Democrat takes office, along with rising gas prices or drone bombing of “wedding parties” in terrorist states, seldom will be heard a discouraging word about COVID-19 until further notice.

    If you doubt that the air is rapidly deflating out of almost a year’s worth of breathless hysteria in the alt-left media, just Google “New COVID-19 cases decline.”

    Here’s a small sampling over the last 72 hours:

    From CNN: “New Covid-19 cases declined 11% after hitting a peak last week.”

    Wall Street Journal: “Newly Reported U.S. Coronavirus Cases Decline Again.”

    National Panhandler Radio: “Current, Deadly U.S. Coronavirus Surge Has Peaked.”

    At least until the mid-term elections, when the Democrats will be needing to ramp up mail-in voting yet again, because it worked so well in November in the rotten boroughs where voter turnout sometimes exceeded 100%.

    That’s why Big COVID is hedging its bets just a bit, allowing such future potential horrors as “mutant strain B.1.1.7” to start warming up in the bullpen — just in case.

    This is nothing new. Recall how Big Pharma didn’t announce that the vaccines were ready to go until Nov. 5, when it was too late to benefit Trump.

    Let’s go state by state: “COVID death rate steadily declining in CA … (Utah) Rolling 7-day average continues to declin e… Ohio: Hospitalizations continue to decline …Covid-19 Cases Continue to Decline in Wisconsin … New Cases Continue to Fall in New Mexico … Erie County’s COVID-19 cases decline … (TN) COVID cases in state down 27% last week … (SD) Covid-19 hospitalizations fall below 200 … (LA) NOLA Public Schools’ COVID-19 case decline.”

    And so on.

    Is there anything Joe Biden can’t do? When does he get the Nobel Prize for medicine?"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where did Howie Carr plagiarize this from?

      Delete
    2. It's not Biden's fault Trump is incompetent and unlucky.

      Delete
  9. More good news. Covid has practically eliminated the flu.

    Per the CDC:
    "Seasonal influenza activity in the United States remains lower than usual for this time of year."

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The coronavirus relief legislation created a 20% premium, or add-on, for COVID-19 Medicare patients. Maybe that explains it.

      Delete
    2. More likely it is because people are staying home, washing their hands, wearing masks and getting flu shots. Duh!

      Delete
  10. Somerby is concerned because the press doesn't present rolling averages of covid deaths, meanwhile, Trump's covid denialism has resulted in deaths from covid being under-reported in areas where support for Trump is strongest. As a result, those total deaths reported are an underestimate of the total covid deaths, in some areas by very large amounts.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/1/25/2011733/-Pro-Trump-areas-are-undercounting-COVID-19-deaths-new-study-suggests-by-a-lot

    It seems likely that the high single day totals being reported by journalists are much closer to the actual deaths than Somerby adjusted figures. If Somerby's aim were truly accuracy in reporting, he would mention this kind of problem, not be so obsessively focused on demanding that journalists always report the lowest death total possible.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Somerby's Cult of Truth is a ruse intended to scold those who abandoned the notion that he has any relevancy or influence.

    ReplyDelete
  12. My name is Riana from USA i want to testify of a powerful spell caster who return my ex boyfriend,it all started when i took his phone and saw a lady message him that she enjoyed the last time and i confronted him about it he was angry and and stop talking to me from that day he started acting strange then he told me he didn't want me anymore that he loves someone else i was so diver-stated i cried all day and night he blocked me from his Instagram and on phone so i couldn't reach him anymore this made me sad and cry even the more i was searching for something online when i saw a comment about Dr Ogudugu great work i contacted him and told him about my problems and i did everything he asked me to do he told me after 24hrs my ex will return back to me well i doubted him though because my ex didn't want to have anything to do with me anymore the next day to my greatest surprise he called me and was begging me to give him another chance now we are both happy together all thanks to Dr Ogudugu he can also help you contact greatogudugu@gmail.com/WhatsApp: +2348063739701

    ReplyDelete
  13. It is a very hard situation when playing the lottery and never won, or keep winning low fund not up to 100 bucks, i have been a victim of such a tough life, the biggest fund i have ever won was 100 bucks, and i have been playing lottery for almost 12 years now, things suddenly change the moment i came across a secret online, a testimony of a spell caster called DR EMU, who help people in any type of lottery numbers, i was not easily convinced, but i decided to give try, now i am a proud lottery winner with the help of DR EMU, i won $1,000.0000.00 and i am making this known to every one out there who have been trying all day to win the lottery, believe me this is the only way to win the lottery. contact him via email: Emutemple@gmail.com call or whats app +2347012841542 Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/

    ReplyDelete

  14. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
    Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever













    LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
    Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever

    ReplyDelete