STARTING TOMORROW: What is truth?

MONDAY, JANUARY 25, 2021

And to what extent do we care?: Have we Americans possibly gotten lucky? Have we managed to avoid a predicted surge of Covid infections and deaths?

Yesterday, atop the front page in print editions, a news report in the Washington Post examined that question. Fenit Nirappil started his front-page report as shown:

NIRAPPIL (1/24/21): The United States appears to have avoided the worst-case coronavirus scenarios that officials feared would overwhelm hospitals in the aftermath of Christmas and New Year’s gatherings. But experts caution that the threat from the virus has not diminished and could intensify with the emergence of new variants.

Even as hospitalizations begin to stabilize, they do so from record heights. The country’s hospitals averaged more than 130,000 covid-19 patients a day over seven days this month, far exceeding summer and spring surges. The death toll from cases contracted before and after the holidays will stretch into February. Authorities reported nearly 4,500 deaths Wednesday, a new single-day record.

According to Nirappil, it seems we may have dodged a bullet, though things could still get worse.

A person could say that Nirappil was possibly hedging his bets. For ourselves, we were most struck by the last sentence we've highlighted, in which Nirappil told readers this:

"Authorities reported nearly 4,500 deaths Wednesday, a new single-day record."

Nirappil's statement can be defended as technically accurate. It could also be seen an example of cherry-picking of a familiar kind.

It's true! According to the Washington Post's data set, 4,440 deaths from Covid-19 were reported on Wednesday, January 20. That's almost "nearly 4,500 deaths," though it's closer to 4,400.

Something else in Nirappil's statement is true. Within the Post's data set, that was the highest number of Covid deaths reported for any single day since the pandemic began in March 2020. Inevitably, that may seem like a significant fact.

Then again, other things are true. Wednesday's reported number of deaths had been very high. But as we noted last Friday,  these were the numbers of Covid deaths reported on the three days before that:

Reported deaths from Covid-19:
Sunday, January 17: 2,068
Monday, January 18: 1,418
Tuesday, January 19: 2,166

Wednesday's number was very high. By way of comparison, Monday's number had been very low. And just for the record, these numbers—these numbers of "reported" deaths—followed a three-day holiday weekend, when the reporting anomalies which occur every week tend to be larger than usual.

As he started, Nirappil reported only one number from the previous week. Was that an example of solid reporting? Or was it "cherry-picking?"

There's no ultimate way to answer that question, but Nirappil omitted more information than he chose to include. Meanwhile, here's the way he and/or his editor chose to end his lengthy report:

NIRAPPIL: About 3,900 deaths were reported Friday in the United States, suggesting Wednesday’s peak may not be an anomaly. The seven-day average of deaths in the weeks after Thanksgiving hovered around 2,500.

“We are getting, in some way, numb to the numbers,” said John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital. “The numbers of hospitalizations, cases and death are still incredibly high. Even if we see a pullback, those numbers are still incredibly scary.”

As he closed his lengthy report, Nirappil made a comparison. Plainly, it was a comparison of the apples-to-oranges kind:

Nirappil compared the number of deaths reported on Friday (about 3,900) to the smaller average number in the weeks after Thanksgiving (about 2,500 deaths per day). In doing so, he showed that he knows about the important statistic known as the 7-day rolling average.

What he didn't say was this: 

After Friday's reporting, the 7-day average for the preceding week stood at 3,101 deaths per day. After Saturday's reporting was done, the 7-day average had dropped to 3,084. In other words:

Where the 7-day average once stood at "about 2,500 deaths" per day, it now stands at just over 3,000. That's an apples-to-apples presentation, although it still has its flaws.

There is no perfect way to report the number of Covid deaths. That said, there are plenty of ways to misreport the number of such deaths.

One such way involves the cherry-picking of individual days. To wit:

Even after November's election, Trump spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany would report the (lower) number of deaths reported on some particular weekend day, thereby giving the impression that things just weren't so bad. 

By way of contrast, people like Maddow and Tapper would reliably report the (higher) number of deaths reported on some particular midweek day, thereby pushing viewers' perceptions in the other direction.

No one reported the 7- or 14-day averages, the only respectable way to report such deaths. No one bothered explaining the weekly reporting glitch which drives numbers higher on midweek days, much lower over the weekend.

Nirappil picked the highest number, simply ignored the others. Eventually, he reported the 7-day averages post-Thanksgiving but ignored the 7-day average which obtained as his report went to press.

At present, that average is down by roughly ten percent from where it stood just ten days ago. That may be a holiday-based statistical glitch, or it may suggest that some modest improvement is taking place. 

At any rate, the current average—3,070 Covid deaths per day—is higher than it was at any point during the year 2020. That's a basic statement of fact, with high and low numbers thrown in.

Atop page one, in paragraph 2, Nirappil cited one number—the highest one-day total ever. He didn't mention the lower numbers which had come in the days before.

He didn't work with 7-day averages until the very end of his report. At that time, he offered an apples-to-oranges comparison instead of saying something like this:

"The seven-day average of deaths in the weeks after Thanksgiving hovered around 2,500. Today, the seven-day average stands at just over 3,000 deaths per day, though it may be leveling off."

Even there, the recent holiday weekend may be introducing noise into the statistics. But that point could be mentioned too, and at least you'd now be comparing apples to apples, with a word of caution thrown in.

We were struck by the way Nirappil (and his editor) shot that largest number right to the top of the pile. Cable stars have done that for months, even as McEnany was cherry-picking the smallest single-day numbers.

Nirappil's choice brought a question to mind. It's an anthropological question, and we plan to regard it that way.

Our questions goes like this:

To what extent are we humans wired to care about such entities as accuracy and truth? Enjoyably, we plan to discuss that question this week with respect to some well-known movies.

"What is truth?" Pontius Pilate once asked. Our own question will be somewhat different.

To what extent are we humans wired to care about such entities as accuracy and truth? This week, we'll examine the question with respect to the way major critics have reviewed certain films. Next week, we expect to move on to prevailing questions of gender and race.

Are we wired to care about truth? Or is it Storyline all the way down?

In our view, the answer to this is in no way clear, not even here in Our Town!

Tomorrow: Roger Ebert, Mel Gibson, three stars


30 comments:

  1. Somerby is truly a one-trick pony. And he beats that horse to death.

    No, we don't think we "got lucky" here in CA, especially in Los Angeles County, and today it was reported that they have identified a mutated strain of virus in CA that may account for the much higher number of cases here.

    Somerby thinks these daily averages mean something, but they must be taken in the larger context of what is happening in different locations and in relation to health care resources. Because these aren't just statistics -- they are a description of what is happening to real live people.

    Somerby seems to be arguing that it is wrong for a reporter to use numbers in serve of a larger narrative, but that narrative is a much more accurate descriptor of what is happening to people than Somerby's nitpicks are.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

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    2. Hello to everyone out here, I am here to share the unexpected miracle that happened to me … My name is Susan Christian , I live in London, UK. we got married for more than 9 years and have gotten two kids. thing were going well with us and we are always happy. until one day my husband started to behave in a way i could not understand, i was very confused by the way he treat me and the kids. later that month he did not come home again and he called me that he want a divorce, i asked him what have i done wrong to deserve this from him, all he was saying is that he want a divorce that he hate me and do not want to see me again in his life, i was mad and also frustrated do not know what to do, i was sick for more than 2 weeks because of the divorce. i love him so much he was everything to me without him my life is incomplete. i told my sister and she told me to contact a spell caster, i never believe in all this spell casting of a thing. i just want to try if something will come out of it. i contacted Dr Emu for the return of my husband to me, they told me that my husband have been taken by another woman, that she cast a spell on him that is why he hate me and also want us to divorce. then they told me that they have to cast a spell on him that will make him return to me and the kids, they casted the spell and after 24 hours my husband called me and he told me that i should forgive him, he started to apologize on phone and said that he still love me that he did not know what happen to him that he left me. it was the spell that Dr Emu casted on him that make him come back to me today, me and my family are now happy again today. thank you Dr Emu for what you have done for me i would have been nothing today if not for your great spell. i want you my friends who are passing through all this kind of love problem of getting back their husband, wife , or ex boyfriend and girlfriend to contact Dr Emu , if you need his help you can contact him through his private mail: emutemple@gmail.com or you can contact him through his website https://emutemple.wordpress.com/ fb page Https://web.facebook.com/Emu-Temple-104891335203341 and you will see that your problem will be solved without any delay.

      Delete
  2. "Are we wired to care about truth? Or is it Storyline all the way down?"

    Is Somerby wired to care about the truth? He assails Nirappil after acknowledging that:

    "Nirappil's statement can be defended as technically accurate."

    He goes on to accuse Nirappil of "cherry-picking" (the wrong term) because he disagrees with Nirappil's narrative that things are at an all-time high. Somerby says:

    "Something else in Nirappil's statement is true."

    Then Somerby goes on to complain about the holiday weekend and how it affected averages, arguing that the very low numbers reported during a holiday weekend make the reduced 7-day average the best statistic.

    But Somerby doesn't once think about the big picture, how those deaths are affecting actual people in different parts of the country. This pandemic is so damaging that no amount of average or adjusting by population size or any other game using statistics is going to distract people from the FACT that this is a high point in terms of covid-deaths for our nation. Nayappil is not exaggerating deaths. Those are real. Somerby's desire to minimize them is no more true a narrative than Nayappil's, which reflects the condition on the ground for most people, especially in hard-hit states.

    Who minimizes covid these days? The right, conservatives, especially Trump supporters. Who has been consistently minimizing covid stats and ignoring the suffering of those affected by covid? Somerby and Trump and conservatives.

    Somerby pretends that only Nayappil has a narrative. Somerby has one too. And he wouldn't recognize the truth if it bit him in the ass.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "No one reported the 7- or 14-day averages"

    There is no reason to consider an average which includes an artificially low number (due to a holiday or other reporting anomaly) as more accurate than a recent single-day figure (assuming no holiday or reporting anomaly).

    When you are dealing with data, you remove outliers (data points that are distorted by some artificial factor irrelevant to your research question). Kevin Drum might point out that a curve is a better way of showing the trend for covid than any single average (7 or 14 days), because it shows change over a time period. Nayappil's point is that the covid death figures have been increasing and are at a peak. That is shown in curves plotting covid deaths.

    Reporters have difficulty presenting graphs in their reports so they must use sentences with words and a few numbers. Their choices are meant to convey what is going on with covid overall, to people who may or may not be comfortable with statistics. Nayappil's choice of a high daily death rate to represent the FACT that covid is at its highest point so far in the pandemic, is appropriate to his overall point, which is TRUE and not a distortion or finagling of data. Somerby himself has not disputed that truth, although he uses the weasel word "technically true" to avoid acknowledging that technically true = true.

    Somerby is wrong to be complaining about this. He might have a point if he were critiquing a technical report, but that is not what is going on. People reading Nayappil want to know: (1) is covid getting better or worse, (2) am I in danger, (3) what is being done about the pandemic. To minimize the state of the covid pandemic, for example by using a rolling 14-day average of numbers that are lower in the past but increasing to the present day, is to lie with statistics. At this point, the actual daily deaths have never been higher and the best statistic is the one that reflects that truth, not Somerby's artificially low averages.

    ReplyDelete
  4. In a worsening pandemic, the larger number of reported deaths is followed by a rise in the weekly average. Thus, it’s perfectly fine to cite the very large numbers of reported deaths (4383 on 1/20 and 4008 on 1/21, according to the CDC; aside from 4/15/2020, all of the largest number of reported deaths during the pandemic have occurred this month.)

    There is nothing at all wrong with the Post article. The author is saying that some indicators show some hope of a turnaround, while others, such as the large spikes in reported deaths, give cause for worry.

    And that’s it.

    ReplyDelete
  5. “We were struck by the way Nirappil (and his editor) shot that largest number right to the top of the pile. Cable stars have done that for months, even as McEnany was cherry-picking the smallest single-day numbers.”

    It would at least be consistent if the Cable Stars (“liberal/mainstream” no doubt; Fox need not be thought of here), and apparently also Washington Post columnists, who all, according to Somerby, are in love with narrative, anti-Trump narrative to be exact, were to now start reporting the lowest numbers now that Biden is president.

    But what struck Somerby was the higher number that the columnist reported.

    The ways of the “liberal” press are inscrutable.

    ReplyDelete
  6. A lot of people don't understand the use of moving averages apparently.

    Interestingly, new cases seems to plateauing which will be good news if the trend continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 12:43
      You mean, like this, as reported in the Post story Somerby carps about:

      “Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said at a White House briefing Thursday that cases appeared to be plateauing, but he warned that it could be a temporary slowdown.”

      Here you have the crux of the story. The reporter did a perfectly fine job of explaining it.

      And if only Somerby had mentioned the number of cases, even once. But he didn’t. He only talked about deaths.

      Delete
    2. You do disagree with Somerby re. reporters overstating and misreporting the number of Covid deaths. I understand.

      Delete
    3. This reporter overstated and misreported nothing, 2:11.

      Delete
    4. @2:11 -- this is not a matter of opinion.

      Delete
  7. "NIRAPPIL (1/24/21): The United States appears to have avoided the worst-case coronavirus scenarios"

    See, dear Bob? I told you so.

    Now, as your zombie cult seized power, COVID The (formerly) Terrible is going to be nothing but a seasonal flu. Just wait a couple of days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump tried to gaslight a global pandemic like it was David in Cal.
      If Trump had just played-up how much COVID was killing people of color, Right-wingers would have drafted COVID as Trump's Vice Presidential candidate.

      Delete
  8. Here, by the way: Howie Carr, for your reading pleasure:

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01/21/without-trump-to-blame-virus-turns-the-corner/

    "Just as “the homeless” disappear whenever a Democrat takes office, along with rising gas prices or drone bombing of “wedding parties” in terrorist states, seldom will be heard a discouraging word about COVID-19 until further notice.

    If you doubt that the air is rapidly deflating out of almost a year’s worth of breathless hysteria in the alt-left media, just Google “New COVID-19 cases decline.”

    Here’s a small sampling over the last 72 hours:

    From CNN: “New Covid-19 cases declined 11% after hitting a peak last week.”

    Wall Street Journal: “Newly Reported U.S. Coronavirus Cases Decline Again.”

    National Panhandler Radio: “Current, Deadly U.S. Coronavirus Surge Has Peaked.”

    At least until the mid-term elections, when the Democrats will be needing to ramp up mail-in voting yet again, because it worked so well in November in the rotten boroughs where voter turnout sometimes exceeded 100%.

    That’s why Big COVID is hedging its bets just a bit, allowing such future potential horrors as “mutant strain B.1.1.7” to start warming up in the bullpen — just in case.

    This is nothing new. Recall how Big Pharma didn’t announce that the vaccines were ready to go until Nov. 5, when it was too late to benefit Trump.

    Let’s go state by state: “COVID death rate steadily declining in CA … (Utah) Rolling 7-day average continues to declin e… Ohio: Hospitalizations continue to decline …Covid-19 Cases Continue to Decline in Wisconsin … New Cases Continue to Fall in New Mexico … Erie County’s COVID-19 cases decline … (TN) COVID cases in state down 27% last week … (SD) Covid-19 hospitalizations fall below 200 … (LA) NOLA Public Schools’ COVID-19 case decline.”

    And so on.

    Is there anything Joe Biden can’t do? When does he get the Nobel Prize for medicine?"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Where did Howie Carr plagiarize this from?

      Delete
    2. It's not Biden's fault Trump is incompetent and unlucky.

      Delete
  9. More good news. Covid has practically eliminated the flu.

    Per the CDC:
    "Seasonal influenza activity in the United States remains lower than usual for this time of year."

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The coronavirus relief legislation created a 20% premium, or add-on, for COVID-19 Medicare patients. Maybe that explains it.

      Delete
    2. More likely it is because people are staying home, washing their hands, wearing masks and getting flu shots. Duh!

      Delete
  10. Somerby is concerned because the press doesn't present rolling averages of covid deaths, meanwhile, Trump's covid denialism has resulted in deaths from covid being under-reported in areas where support for Trump is strongest. As a result, those total deaths reported are an underestimate of the total covid deaths, in some areas by very large amounts.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/1/25/2011733/-Pro-Trump-areas-are-undercounting-COVID-19-deaths-new-study-suggests-by-a-lot

    It seems likely that the high single day totals being reported by journalists are much closer to the actual deaths than Somerby adjusted figures. If Somerby's aim were truly accuracy in reporting, he would mention this kind of problem, not be so obsessively focused on demanding that journalists always report the lowest death total possible.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Somerby's Cult of Truth is a ruse intended to scold those who abandoned the notion that he has any relevancy or influence.

    ReplyDelete
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