MONDAY: Maybe two years, the Pentagon says!

MONDAY, JULY 7, 2025

One person's ranting persists: We're so old that we can remember the bombing attacks on Iran.

Operation Midnight Hammer took place on Saturday, June 21, Eastern time. President Trump offered his initial assessment that night:

Trump Speaks on Iran Bombing

PRESIDENT TRUMP (6/21/25): A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Everybody heard those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. 

Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror. Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.

"Completely and totally obliterated" became an instant watchword. In the strictest literal sense, President Trump had only applied that formulation to Iran's "key nuclear enrichment facilities"—but the next morning, Secretary Hegseth may have seemed to take things farther:

Hegseth Press Briefing after US Strikes Iran

SECRETARY HEGSETH (6/22/25): Last night, on President Trump's orders, U.S. Central Command conducted a precision strike in the middle of the night against three nuclear facilities in Iran: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan in order to destroy or severely degrade Iran's nuclear program...We devastated the Iranian nuclear program.

[...]

Many presidents have dreamed of delivering the blow to Iran's nuclear program and none could until President Trump. The operation President Trump planned was bold and it was brilliant.

In Hegseth's formulation, the bombing strikes had severely degraded (or perhaps had "destroyed") Iran's "nuclear program" writ large. 

Soon thereafter, an accurate report by CNN—and then by the New York Times and the Washington Post—touched off a local version of tribal World War III:

In an accurate report, CNN accurately reported an accurate fact—an early assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency said that Iran's nuclear program had been damaged less severely than that. The Associated Press also reported the contents of that early assessment:

New U.S. intelligence report suggests Iran’s nuclear program only set back by months after strikes

A new U.S. intelligence report found that Iran’s nuclear program has been set back only a few months after a U.S. strike and was not “completely and fully obliterated” as President Donald Trump has said, according to two people familiar with the early assessment.

The intelligence report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency on Monday contradicts statements from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the status of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The people were not authorized to address the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

According to the people, the report found that while the Saturday strikes at the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites did significant damage, they were not totally destroyed.

The assessment found that at least some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium was moved out of multiple sites before the U.S. strikes and survived, according to the people, and it also found that Iran’s centrifuges are largely intact.

How accurate was this early assessment? We have no idea! That said, the news orgs in question had accurately reported the contents of this DIA assessment. 

CNN and the other orgs had filed accurate news reports about an early assessment. Inevitably, the president was still fulminating about this bit of "fake news" as recently as July 3, at the angry "Salute to America" rally where he said that he hated all Democrats.

Concerning CNN and the others, here's what he angrily said:

Salute to America Celebration

PRESIDENT TRUMP (7/3/25):  Complete obliteration. It turned out that was complete obliteration. Think of these guys flying way up in the air in a dark night. No moon, no nothing, and they hit every single target. 

[...]

Iran's nuclear enrichment has been obliterated. Remember when CNN said it wasn't obliterated, it was maybe damaged or damaged badly, but obliterated is too strong a word? No, it was obliterated, that's now been proven. The Atomic Energy Commission said everything it's been obliterated. And they were trying to demean me by saying that, but they were really demeaning those great pilots, and people, and mechanics that got those planes over there and were able to shoot from high up in the air, going very, very fast with potentially a lot of things being shot at them and hit every single one, every single.

They're trying to demean me, but to me, they were demeaning them. And they got out of the plane and they said, "What the hell? We hit every single target." They know better than anybody, but now that's been proven. It's CNN fake news and scammers that work for them, scam writers that work for them. But we understand it and we fight it back, and a lot of people said, "Sir, don't criticize it because they're beneath you." 

No, they're not beneath me, nobody's beneath. You got to put it, otherwise people don't understand. If you don't say something about, you got to say it. These people did one of the greatest military hits and maneuvers in the history of our country, and I want them to be appreciated for it.

Thus spake President Trump, as part of his Salute to America event. 

That's what the president said on July 3. Just to establish the record, here's what Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell had said the day before, in a formal press conference:

Pentagon Press Briefing for 7/02/25

PARNELL (7/2/25): Our assessment of the battle damage around Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan remains unchanged. We believe, and certainly all of the intelligence that we've seen, have led us to believe that Iran's—those facilities, especially, have been completely obliterated. And the interesting side point about this, Tara, is that all of the conversations that we've had since Operation Midnight Hammer, with our allies all around the world, but certainly also in the region, they say a couple of things. They share our sentiments about the degradation of Iran's nuclear program and the fact that we have degraded their program by one to two years. At least intel assessments inside the department assess that, and I think their intelligence shares that conclusion.

REPORTER: Does current assessments by this department think it's been degraded or delayed by one to two years?

PARNELL: I think we're thinking probably closer to two years, like degraded their program by two years.

According to Parnell, Iran's program has been degraded or delayed by something approaching two years. 

We don't know if that really is the current assessment. If that really is the current assessment, we don't know if it's accurate.

But that's what Parnell said, in a formal Pentagon press event on July 2. The next night, the president was fulminating in the heartland again—and his fulminations found no room for this formal assessment.

Initially, the DIA had said Iran's program had been set back by maybe just a few months. CNN and other agencies accurately reported that initial assessment.

As of July 2, Parnell was formally saying that the Iranian program had been set back by something approaching two years. Inevitably, his formal statement has come and gone with very little notice. In its place, we get the ranting of the president—ranting the press corps has thoroughly normalized. 

As the ancient saying goes, "[Little] beside remains."

Also this: We wanted to establish the record about this significant matter. At present, the formal assessment seems to say something approaching two years.

Parnell said Iran has been set back maybe two years—but evaluation continues! In the July 2 presser, this exchange also occurred:

REPORTER: Is that a final assessment that you're citing there, or is there still more information coming in?

PARNELL:  The assessments are ongoing. And every day that goes by, the intelligence picture that we have gets clearer and clearer. And as we get those updates, Courtney, we'll keep you updated.

Parnell says the assessments are ongoing. But within the dying American discourse, all that's left is the shouting—the shouting, and the absurd self-pity, and the declarations of hate.

Could something be wrong with the person in question? If so, that's a human tragedy, but our journalists aren't going to ask!