This whole discourse is out of order!

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

Peter Baker, front page of the Times: Full disclosure:

We hadn't watched last evening's Last Word when we scanned today's New York Times.

We still hadn't seen the opening segment of Lawrence O'Donnell's program. That said, and for obvious reasons, we read a certain front-page "News Analysis" first.

The piece was written by Peter Baker, who's the farthest thing from dumb. It sat above the fold on the front page of today's print editions—and it helps establish a basic fact about this broken press corps.

Baker's the farthest thing from dumb!  Despite that fact, his essay started like this:

NEWS ANALYSIS
Too Old? The Focus Is Now on Trump

The last time the nation held a debate with the presidency on the line, a candidate with about eight decades of life behind him faced the challenge of proving that he was still up to the job of running the country. He failed.

Two and a half months later, the cast of characters has shifted and another candidate heading toward the octogenarian club confronts his own test to demonstrate that he has not diminished with age. Whether he passes that test may influence who will be the next occupant of the Oval Office.

At 78, former President Donald J. Trump exhibits more energy and speaks with more volume than President Biden does at 81, but he, too, has mixed up names, confused facts and stumbled over his points. Mr. Trump’s rambling speeches, sometimes incoherent statements and extreme outbursts have raised questions about his own cognitive health and, according to polls, stimulated doubts among a majority of voters.

With Mr. Biden now out of the race, the politics of age have been turned on their head. Mr. Trump is now the oldest person ever to run for president on a major party ticket and, if he wins, would become the oldest president in history by the end of his term, when he would be 82. While he managed to sidestep questions about his own capacity while Mr. Biden was his opponent, the rival he will square off against at Tuesday’s prime-time debate in Philadelphia will be Vice President Kamala Harris, who at 59 is nearly two decades younger.

Donald J. Trump "has mixed up names?" The problem, of course, goes well beyond that, and it may have nothing to do with age. But as of today, it's finally clear:

It isn't possible to get the Times to come to terms with that fact.

The presidential candidate in question says crazy thigs every day. For the record, he began saying crazy things about Barack Obama's place of birth back in 2011, when he was 65—just six years older than Candidate Harris is today.

Today, he says crazy things pretty much every day. 

Some of the crazy things he says fly in the face of the basic functioning of the American system. Some of the crazy things he says seem to suggest that he has no idea how certain basic policy questions work.

We've been urging the Times (and other such orgs) to come to terms with a basic fact of life:

When a nominee says crazy things, the fact that he did so is front-page news. If the nominee says crazy things every day, it's front-page news every time.

Peter Baker isn't dumb; his analysis piece plainly is. Last evening, O'Donnell thundered about the way Baker focuses on the candidate's recent statement, at The Economic Club of New York, about the possibility of addressing the current high costs of child care.

For the record, Trump's long address was full of crazy remarks. In its usual simple-minded way, the high-end press corps widely decided to focus on what he said in response to a question from an audience member about those child care costs.

In fairness, Trump's jumbled response was easy to mock, and our journalists tend to love anything that's simple-minded and easy. Along the way, news orgs avoided the larger problem with what the candidate said in response to that question, just as Baker does today.

At this point, let's be fair! We agree with this part of what Baker says in his piece:

BAKER (9/10/24): What he seemed to be saying was that he would raise so much money by imposing tariffs on imported goods that the country could use the proceeds to pay for child care. 

We agree! That did seem to be what the hopeful was saying as he meandered along. As he wandered the countryside, vaguely conveying that impression, an underlying fact also seemed to be clear:

The candidate doesn't have a proposal for reducing the cost of child care, and he didn't want to say so.

Fair enough! Candidate Trump has no proposal concerning the costs of child care. He seemed to say that his brilliant plan for using "smart tariffs" will bring in so much money that it will be easy to finance some future plan, if he ever has one.

That seemed to be what he was saying! But as we read the Baker piece, we were struck by the groaning fact O'Donnell cited last night. Possibly at the insistence of editors, Baker had chosen not to say something he surely knows to be true.

For perhaps the ten millionth time, Trump had offered a crazy account of the way tariffs work.

Needless to say, Lawrence immediately began to say Trump had been "lying" again. This implies that Donald J. Trump actually understands the way tariffs actually work.

We're sorry, but we know of no reason to assume that that is true.

Does Candidate Trump actually understand the way tariffs actually work? We don't have the slightest idea—but among the various crazy things he said at The Economic Club of New York, he scattered this manifest nonsense of this type through major parts of his endless address:

TRUMP (9/5/24): Under my leadership, America will encourage domestic production instead of punishing it. As you know, our country’s vast manufacturing wealth was created at a time with very little domestic taxation, few regulations, and most revenue came from tariffs from other countries. That was when we were at the wealthiest ever, proportionately. We were the wealthiest country ever during those days. That was before income tax came along.

Now we foolishly do the opposite. We impose lower tariffs, and no tariffs, on foreign producers. We have the lowest tariffs of any nation in the world, and we relentlessly punish our own companies for doing business in America. You do business in America, you’re punished tremendously.

I had many, many companies come to me, "Sir, I can’t compete. They’re sending kitchen cabinets, washers and dryers, everything. I can tell you, every--motorcycles. They’re sending them here, sir. We can’t compete."

And I made it so they could compete and thrive. Every one of those people, we should get them up and talk to you one day, because every one of those people comes up to me, and every time I see them, they hug me, they kiss me, they love me, because I saved their businesses.

Yes, he actually said that! Every time those business leaders see him, they call him "Sir." After that, they hug and kiss him, they love the hopeful so much.

As you can see in that brief excerpt, these business leaders hug him and kiss him because of what he accomplished when he was president, through his use of tariffs. But does he know how tariffs work? 

Does he know what a tariff is? Again and again and again and again, it pretty much seems that he doesn't:

TRUMP (continuing directly): I intend to reverse this model and once again turn America into the manufacturing superpower of the world. We can do that, just with being intelligent. The key to this effort will be a pro-American trade policy that uses tariffs to encourage production here and bring trillions and trillions of dollars back home. And you know what? We deserve it.

Candidate Trump says he'll use tariffs to "bring trillions and trillions of dollars back home." 

But how exactly do tariffs work? How is that going to happen? For perhaps the ten millionth time, Candidate Trump seemed to say that tariffs work like this:

TRUMP: In the words of a great but highly underrated president, William McKinley, highly underrated, the protective tariff policy of the Republicans has been made, and made the lives of our countrymen sweeter and brighter. It’s the best for our citizenship and our civilization, and it opens up a higher and better destiny for our people. We have to take care of our own nation and our industries first.

In other words, take care of our country first. This is when we had our greatest wealth. He was assassinated, and he left his group of people that followed him. Teddy Roosevelt became a great president, spending the money that was made by McKinley.

So McKinley got a bad deal on that one. He built tremendous wealth. They had the Tariff Act of 1887, and they had a committee that studied, what are we going to do? They had a big problem, a problem like I hope to have with this country someday. So much money was coming in from foreign countries that they didn’t know how to spend it. They had no idea, so they set up a committee—we’ll set one up with the people in this room—"How do we distribute the wealth that we have?"

And Roosevelt built dams and built railroads and did national parks, but he did it with the money that was made with tariffs from McKinley. So you have to remember that. Very highly underrated, a very underrated president.

Let’s give them both credit. Smart tariffs will not create inflation. They will combat inflation. I had almost no inflation, and I had the highest tariffs that anyone’s seen, and they were going a lot higher. Foreign nations will pay us hundreds of billions of dollars, reducing the deficit and driving inflation down. It will largely reduce our deficit.

In my first term, we imposed historic tariffs with no effect on consumer prices or inflation. The anti-tariff people, many of them, I believe, honestly work for these other countries in some form, get tremendous amounts of lobbying money and other money because it doesn’t make sense what they’re saying. But we had no inflation, and we had protection, and I saved so many industries. I saved the steel industry.

But Biden and Harris are letting it go. They’re letting it go. It’s so easy to keep. A combination of fair trade tax cuts, regulatory cuts, and energy abundance will allow us to produce more goods, better and cheaper, right here in the USA than we’ve ever done before. And foreign nations will respect us again. I got along great with foreign nations, and I taxed the hell out of them. And they liked me. Maybe they respected me.

Again and again, for perhaps the ten millionth time, the candidate seemed to say that a tariff is like a tax imposed on a foreign country. 

He "taxed the hell out of" foreign nations, the former president said. Under his new plans for more far-reaching tariffs, "foreign nations will pay us hundreds of billions of dollars, reducing the deficit and driving inflation down," the former president added.

"I got along great with foreign nations, and I taxed the hell out of them," the former president puzzlingly said. "Maybe they respected me," he modestly mused—and from there, he immediately turned to quoting Viktor Orban's praise for his brilliant global leadership.

As Lawrence explained last night, the president of the United States can't tax a foreign nation. That isn't the way a tariff works. That isn't where the money comes from—and there's absolutely zero chance that Baker doesn't know that.

Peter Baker knows that these representations don't seem to make actual sense. He also knows that Candidate Trump says these things day after day after day as he whips up rally crowds by telling them that the last election was stolen, another repetitive claim the Times agrees to ignore.

If a candidate says these things every day, it's front-page news each time! In this case, Baker made fun of the verbal jumble Trump created in failing to answer the child care question, but he just let it go after that.

He didn't mention the apparent lunacy of Trump's proposal for vastly expanded tariffs. We'll take a guess as to why Baker's editors made him do that:

Talk about tariffs is very hard—and they like their front page to be easy.

Please don't make us try to explain this lunacy any further. But on the morning of the debate, this whole Potemkin "national discourse" is vastly out of order.

In the past few days, we've been trying to draw a contrast between the present and the past. Were we the people more serious once? How about our high-end journalists?

Are we now a confederacy of clowns, Fox News and the Times together?

For extra credit only: For Lawrence's opening segment last night, you can just click here. For the record, we don't know why he seems to feel so sure that Candidate Trump is lying.

Regarding the Times, we also note this:

In the paper's September 7 print editions, Jonathan Weisman offered this "Political Memo" about Trump's speech to The Economic Club. 

Weisman focused on the candidate's remarks about tariffs too. Seeming to chuckle a bit, he restricted himself to the politics of the tariff proposals. 

Policy can be hard! As you can see, Weisman didn't bother explaining the policy problems with what Candidate Trump says and says, and says and says and says and says, about this miracle cure. Presumably, that would simply be too hard for readers of the Times.

Our public discourse is highly Potemkin. It's given the look of a public discourse, but it's Marshmallow Fluff inside, then pretty much all the way down.

For the C-Span tape of the candidate's speech, you can just click here. No one at The Economic Club piped up about the tariffs!


38 comments:

  1. Unfortunately Harris also says crazy things. And, they may be more dangerous than Trump's crazy things, because she might actually implement them. Two of them are
    1. Rent control
    2. Taxing unrealized gains.

    Rent control has failed in city after city. Even liberal economist mostly agree that it's a bad idea. Rent controls can destroy cities, because it discourages the development and maintenance of rental housing and apartments.

    I don't know of any jurisdiction where they have tried to tax unrealized capital gains. It's a terrible idea, for many reasons.
    1. Depending on the asset, it may be difficult or impossible to measure Let's say you buy a house in Silicon Valley for $2 million and the market price rises to $3 million. You would owe income tax on $1 million. But, the market price is just someone's guess. It's not an objectively measurable figure.

    2 You might not have the cash to pay this tax. In the above example you would owe tax on $1 million, which might be $300,000. It you don't have $300,000 lying around, you might have to sell your house to pay the tax.

    3. An unrealized capital gain can disappear. In the above example, suppose after rising from $2 million to $3 million, your house value declines back to $2 million. You already paid tax on a million dollar unrealized gain, but that gain has disappeared. Would the government refund your $300,000? Would they only allow you to take it as a deduction? Who knows?

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    1. They have rent control in New York City and in Santa Monica, CA, two places where I have lived and that I can personally say were not destroyed. I believe that the difficulties arising from taxing capital gains can be worked out, but the point of her policy is that wealthy people should be paying their fair share and not hiding behind tax laws that enable them to circumvent taxes. I do not believe there is no way to figure out market value of assets. The IRS deals with people who cannot pay their taxes all the time. They work out schedules and seize assets. Inability to pay is not an excuse for not paying tax -- for anyone -- so why should wealthy people be exempt? Homeowners are already familiar with the way the value assessed on their home changes yearly for purposes of property taxes. If other capital gains fluctuate and you happen to sell at the wrong time, no one pays your the increase when the house value goes up substantially after you have sold it. I do not see why these things are problems when they are already part of the financial realities people deal with when buying and selling things.

      The reality on the ground is that wealthy people are not paying their fair share, so the rest of us taxpayers must pick up the slack on necessities. How is that fair and why should it continue?

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  2. JD Vance is very very good in this All in Summit interview yesterday. David in Cal and Cecelia will like this:

    https://youtu.be/eMxcM3ZcVmM

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    1. 1st lie -- the guy introducing JD Vance said he grew up in Appalachia, a poor part of the country, without the privileges others have (Vance grew up in a middle class suburb in Ohio, not in Kentucky, in an upper middle class home.

      Lie #2 -- He defined innovation as software and blamed regulation for lack of innovation. He then broadened innovation to include transportation and energy (such as alternative energy) but these are not areas being regulated but rather stimulated and encouraged by the govt, especially under Biden.

      Lie #3 -- He implied that the country has only been growing 0-1% per year for the past 3 years, which is far from true. Real growth is 3% for the first two quarters of 2024 compared to last year, and it was 2.8% in 2023 compared to 2022. Vance, of course, ignores the impact of covid, but he portrays growth as worse than it is under Biden, and that is lying.

      I am now 5 minutes into the podcast and I am not going to fact check the whole thing, but it seems obvious from this beginning that Vance lies just like Trump does. No matter how much of a tech bro he seemed on the podcast, it doesn't matter if you don't tell voters the truth about yourself and the economy.

      Delete
  3. Trump rarely admits making a mistake, so this acknowledgement is noteworthy
    RFK Jr. says Trump admitted to him he didn’t drain the swamp his first term and has asked him to help him drain the swamp moving forward:

    “He said, I didn't know anything about governing and he said, we won this election, and then all of a sudden, you got to fill 60,000 jobs.”

    “He said I was surrounded by people, by lobbyists and business interests who we’re saying, you got to appoint this guy, and that's what he did.”


    https://x.com/EndTribalism/status/1833183097904398422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1833183097904398422%7Ctwgr%5E41481bf6e2d083bc95defaf9fbdd1811e74c6195%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F671520%2F

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    1. Yes, this is the excuse for implementing Project 2025, the plan to eliminate civil service jobs and replace those with expertise with cronies whose only qualification is political loyalty.

      George W. Bush tried that during his term, replacing the FEMA Director with an underqualified political crony. When hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, the responsible person was unqualified to deal with it. As a consequence, people died and others suffered because of lack of preparation and poor coordination of the rescue efforts. It matters who is put into such jobs.

      Trump's transition team in 2016 was non-existant and that is why they were unable to create a government after they surprised themselves by beating Hillary. That is what inexperience does and Trump himself was unprepared to hold office, unqualified for the job.

      Now, it sounds like he is going to repeat that mistake by farming out the government to an organization instead of taking responsibility for leadership.

      Delete
    2. David,
      Weren't you one of the people who voted for the woefully unqualified Donald Trump for President in 2016?

      Delete
    3. Hillary made it easy, when she called me "deplorable". For me to vote for Hillary would be like a black person voting for George Wallace.

      Also, this acknowledged Trump mistake was that he
      wasn't effective at doing the right thing, namely drain the swamp. Hillary didn't even want to drain the swamp.

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    4. @6:10 are you not aware that Trump had nothing to do with designing Project 2025, and he specifically disavowed it?

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    5. David,
      You beg for (only Democratic Party) politicians to be truthful, and when they are, you get insulted, throw a hissy fit, and vote for a rapist.
      I hope you called the Left "snowflakes", first.

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    6. Earth to David -- Hillary is not running for any office. Biden is not running either.

      Drain the swamp refers to political appointees, not to civil service jobs. It also does not refer to people you dislike and want to instruct the DOJ to prosecute. None of that is what is meant by swamp, a term that typically refers to some kind of political corruption. There is way more of that on the right than on the left. If Trump cannot even figure out what the swamp is, how can he clean house? Trump admires the grifters and corruption is what he thinks the government is for. People who are not corrupt are suckers and saps to Trump. Trump thinks it is smart to evade taxes and not pay legitimate debts (like those he is accruing on the campaign trail in small towns all over America). He thinks stiffing those towns is his right, and he squeals like a stuck pig when someone gets a legal judgment against him.

      Case in point. Trump has stiffed the estate of Isaac Hayes, Neil Young, White Stripes (most recently), ABBA, Adele, Arrowsmith, The Animals, The Beatles, Beyonce, Bruce Springsteen, Celine Dion, Credence Clearwater, Earth Wind & Fire, Elton John, Foo Fighters, Guns & Roses, Leonard Cohen, and many others, by using their music without permission and without payment of royalties owed. He is being sued all over the place for this theft.

      We need to drain the swamp by getting rid of guys like Trump.

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    7. There are more than 100 former Trump staffers who have had roles in developing the Project 2025 plan and the leaders of the effort openly acknowledge that it is intended to expedite Trump's agenda in a second term.

      He can disavow all he likes. The plan is being cooked up by his people for him to use if he frauds his way back into power.

      Delete
    8. "You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? [Laughter/applause]. The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people, now have 11 million. He tweets and retweets offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks, they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.

      Dickhead in Cal assumed she was talking about him.

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    9. Anyone who has read David's comments, knows she was talking about him.

      Delete
  4. Yes Trump says a lot of crazy things. I focus on what he actually does, and he is generally sensible. Don’t want to hear about J6 from people who condone/encourage Floyd riots, pillaging and burning.

    Also, Trump knows that tariffs increase cost of goods at the store, but it is easier to sell it as “other country will pay the tax”. Not hard to understand - just like when he says NATO countries should pay 3%, when in fact he means they should spend 3% of their GDP on their own defense.

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    1. Do you also not want to know about J6 from legislators who almost died during the insurrection? How about what Congress itself found out about it during its investigation and hearings? Is that not real info either?

      Excusing Trump's lies is no better than excusing his ignorance. Neither one is worthy of the people who elect our politicians.

      It is possible to translate Trump's ignorance into meaningful statements, but you are then supplying the meaning, not Trump. He doesn't actually know the things you are adding about tariffs. Some who have worked with Trump call him the most ignorant man they've ever met. Should someone like that be elected to a responsible office where results matter? I don't think so.

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    2. "Don’t want to hear about J6 from people who condone/encourage Floyd riots, pillaging and burning."

      Perfect, because i don't want to hear about how it's not our job to help refugees from people who chanted "All Lives Matter" at BLM.

      Delete
  5. This substack newsletter may be interested to those following the politics of climate change:

    https://heated.world/p/a-high-stakes-climate-debate

    "Tonight’s debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has massive ecological and existential stakes.

    A whopping 30 percent of Americans say tonight’s televised showdown will help them determine who to vote for in November. And their choice will help determine whether 4 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions get released into the atmosphere over the next six years—an amount equating to $900 billion in global climate damages.

    That’s why, despite some pretty severe jet lag, I’ll be watching—and reacting/chatting live with subscribers starting at 8:45 p.m. Eastern time.

    Chat with me during the debate

    If you’ll also be watching, and if you’d like a place to hang out that’s full of people who care about the climate crisis, please join me! We’ve done similar threads during previous debates and they’ve been pretty well-attended.

    The only difference this time is that we’ll be using Substack’s new-ish chat function instead of the usual comment thread function. I’m hoping this will be a bit more user-friendly. We’ll see!"

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    1. Ideas for topics to discuss:
      1. What states is Jill Stein is on the ballot?
      2. Ironic that Cheney and Harris were the two most unpopular VP's in history.
      3. NYT/Siena poll that said the demographic that identifies least as Democrats is voters age 18-29

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    2. 4. The Dobbs decision, and expanding the Supreme Court.
      5. The positive effects on the Senate, of making the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico states.
      6. The irony of people who don't see color, telling us when Harris is and isn't black.

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    3. Both Cheney are Harris are ranked at 10/11 out of the 18 modern VPs, by the Presidential Greatness Project (the one in which Trump ranked last/worst among presidents). Neither was last:

      "Nixon veep Spiro Agnew — who resigned from office following a bribery scandal — ranked last, with Dan Quayle (George H.W. Bush), Henry Wallace (FDR), Garner and Alben Barkley (Truman) rounding out the bottom five."

      Next time you want to quote something, read it first.

      https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-07-07/vice-president-trump-biden-running-mate-election-2024

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    4. Actually I think they voted Buchanan as the worst president. Which is interesting in that he was one of our two gay presidents (Obama being the other - and Lincoln was bisexual). But not rankings by biased academics. Approval ratings. Harris was vice president to the most unpopular president in history and Cheney left office with the lowest approval rating for a VP in history - 9%.

      It's interesting because Cheney is a supporter of Harris now and Harris thinks Cheney is a respected leader. Which is totally wild because he is a war criminal who the country and especially liberals hate with a passion. It's just weird.

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    5. It is weird, because Cheney was revered by the Right, as part of St. Ronnie's cabinet, yet he's now persona non grata with Republicans because he won't side with Russia.
      We live in wold times.

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    6. 8:04,
      That's the worst kind of propaganda. Guilt by association with a war criminal.

      Delete
    7. "Obama is not gay."

      He most certainly is.

      Delete
    8. Trump is feces incarnated.

      Delete
  6. "While he [Trump] managed to sidestep questions about his own capacity while Mr. Biden was his opponent, ...

    While the nation's press managed to avoid raising questions about Trump's capacity while President Biden was his opponent, ....

    FTFY

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  7. There is no reason why Trump cannot be both too old and too crazy to be president. This isn't an either/or situation. Arguing about whether Trump is too crazy or Trump is too old makes no sense when either condition should be disqualifying.

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  8. Trump tonight:

    "They're eating the dogs!"

    The man is deranged.

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    1. When I lived in the Bay Area after the war, the anti-immigration dunderheads without any evidence accused the Vietnamese and Laotian refugees of doing the same thing. It's apparently SOP.

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  9. The Trump campaign would like to counter the Taylor Swift statement with the personal endorsement of Ted Nugent.

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  10. Trump lost the debate, and badly.

    Even Fox News is admitting this.

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  11. a rRE SKIP O HE 256 FANNY BURP FANNY BURP

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  12. "I've seen people on television. People on television say 'my dog was taken and eaten for food.' "
    Would somebody please set up the parental controls code on the Donald's TV? OK, historians may someday remember that as the most memorable line in a presidential debate going back to Lincoln/Douglas. Of course those guys were disadvantaged by the absence of quality television programming in the 19th century.There are upwards of 500 breeds of dog worldwide, can somebody please tell me what type pairs well with a nice merlot? Finally you can bet your last dollar that there are right now Republican operatives fanning out over the Springfield area with bags of money to hand out to the first Asian looking guy that they can film approaching Fido on a front porch. And they will provide the dog.

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