Do you understand what Fauci said?

WEDNESDAY, JULY 1, 2020

Also, decline in deaths restored:
Does anybody understand the tricky statistic called "cases?" This is why we ask:

Yesterday, Dr. Fauci made a comment which launched a million reports. Here's the way the comment is presented atop the front page of this morning's Washington Post:
GEARAN (7/1/20): Staggered by the resurgent novel coronavirus, cities and states are reinstituting restrictions on bars, pools and large gatherings days ahead of July 4 celebrations as the top U.S. infectious-disease expert warned Tuesday that the pandemic is out of control in some places and soon could reach 100,000 [new] cases a day.

Nationally, new infections have topped 40,000 in four of the past five days
during an accelerating outbreak that exceeds the worst days of April.

[...]

Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he would not be surprised to see the number of new infections more than double, from over 40,000 a day now to 100,000 a day.
According to this remark, new infections (new "cases") are now topping 40,000 per day. But we could go as high as 100,000 new cases per day!

(Gearan et al. failed to include the word "new" in their opening paragraph. They made Fauci's meaning more clear a bit later on.)

We could go as high as 100,000 new cases per day? Does anyone understand that remark? This is why we ask:

Just last week, the head of the CDC said that the actual number of total cases to date may be as much as ten times the current recorded number. This is the way the Washington Post reported that assessment:
SUN (6/26/20): The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 10 times as high as the 2.4 million confirmed cases, based on antibody tests, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

CDC Director Robert Redfield’s estimate, shared with reporters in a conference call, indicates that at least 24 million Americans have been infected so far.
That was Redfield's assessment of the overall number of "cases" (infections) to date. We're saying the number is 2.4 million, but the actual number could be as high as 24 million!

That's what Redfield said. He was speaking about total infections to date. That doesn't necessarily mean that the number of new cases on any given day is actually ten times as high as the number which is being reported.

Still, if we're dealing with a factor of ten, isn't it possible that we're already experiencing 100,000 new infections (new cases) per day, with only 40,000 of those new infections being diagnosed and recorded? If not, why not? Do you have the slightest idea?

When it comes to covid-19 statistics, deaths are easy, cases are hard. It seems to us that there are a hundred ways to get confused about "cases," with some journalists striving to dabble in every one.

Deaths are more straightforward, though inconsistent reporting procedures create confusions even there, as New Jersey showed last week.

For ourselves, we're prepared to report a bit of superficial good news: yesterday, nationwide deaths declined again. (We're using the Washington Post numbers, adjusted for the retroactive dump of old deaths New Jersey engineered on June 25.)

Nationwide, we closed the month with the lowest seven-day average since the good old days of mid-March. Below, we make an up-to-the-minute addition to the numbers we posted yesterday:
Daily deaths, nationwide, 7-day rolling average
May 25-May 31: 915.6
June 1-June 7: 803.4
June 8-June 14: 710.9
June 15-June 21: 585.9
June 24-June 30: 543.9
The rate of decline has slowed—but as of yesterday, the decline was still occurring. Yesterday's seven-day average was the lowest such number yet, unless you let a skew occur based on those retroactive New Jersey numbers.

At the end of May, the seven-day average stood at 915.6 deaths per day. After yesterday's numbers were released, the seven-day average at the end of June stood at 543.9.

That's a big decline, but it may not continue. Meanwhile, news orgs now focus on "cases," a rather slippery statistic which offers quite a few pathways to confusion and incomprehension.

In closing, we return to our basic question:

Based on what Redfield said, is it possible that we're already experiencing 100,000 new infections (new cases) per day, only 40,000 of which are being recorded?

Is it possible that this is true? Of one thing you can be certain—no one is going to ask!

22 comments:

  1. All you need to know, dear Bob, is that 'cases' and 'new cases' is a completely useless statistic.

    It should actually be called something like 'cases discovered' and 'new cases discovered', to make it clear that this is the number of positives among all the tests performed.

    ...actually, they should present 2 numbers: 'tests performed' and 'number of positives'. But it still would be pretty useless, because we don't know how they pick the subjects: random? symptomatic? If a mixture - what kind of mixture? etc. etc. etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello everyone. I was heartbroken because i had very small penis, not nice to satisfy a woman, i had so many relationship called off because of my situation, i have used so many product which i found online but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments about this specialist called Dr OLU and decided to email him on drolusolutionhome@gmail.com
      so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis t, Enlargement Within 5 day of it, i began to feel the enlargement of my penis, ” and now it just 2 weeks of using his products my penis is about 10 inches longer and am so happy..feel free to contact DR OLU on (drolusolutionhome@gmail.com) or whatsapp him on this number +2348140654426  


      How can i ever stop saying thank you to Dr  olu   































      Hello everyone. I was heartbroken because i had very small penis, not nice to satisfy a woman, i had so many relationship called off because of my situation, i have used so many product which i found online but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments about this specialist called Dr OLU and decided to email him on drolusolutionhome@gmail.com
      so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis t, Enlargement Within 5 day of it, i began to feel the enlargement of my penis, ” and now it just 2 weeks of using his products my penis is about 10 inches longer and am so happy..feel free to contact DR OLU on (drolusolutionhome@gmail.com) or whatsapp him on this number +2348140654426  


      How can i ever stop saying thank you to Dr  olu   

      Delete
    2. A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
      Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
      Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
      Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542

      Delete
  2. “That was Redfield's assessment of the overall number of "cases" (infections) to date. We're saying the number is 2.4 million, but the actual number could be as high as 24 million!”

    As the Post stated: “The number of people in the United States who have been infected with the coronavirus is likely to be 10 times as high as the 2.4 million confirmed cases”

    Somerby, after noting the “trickiness” of the term “cases”, engages in his own trickery by ignoring the Post’s use of the word “confirmed.”

    Redfield is saying that there are likely a lot more unconfirmed cases out there. These could be people who have not been tested, or show no symptoms.

    And, as to the supposed trickiness of the term “cases”, here is the definition used at worldometer, which comes by way of the CDC:

    “confirmed positive and also presumptive, suspect, or probable cases of detected infection.” (As of April 14, 2020, the CDC includes probable cases in their count.)

    Fauci is talking about 100,000 cases per day according to this definition.

    This is actually not terribly tricky, although Somerby is trying really hard to make it seem that way. Is he deliberately trying to confuse his readers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Slight correction: Redfield said the actual number is at least 24 million, rather than as high as 24 million.

      Delete
    2. A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
      Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
      Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
      Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/
      Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542

      Delete
    3. I agree with mh. Mr. Somerby hints at either trickery or sloppiness by The Post. I don't see it. Despite a busy week with little time to read the news, I was not mislead or confused by either Dr. Fauci or Dr. Redfield.

      Delete
  3. If it's true that 24 million have been infected with the virus, and roughly 100,000 have died with it (not from it, WITH it is how the deaths are counted), that means roughly .4% of the people who got the virus have died thus far. We wrecked our economy and totally reordered our way of life for that? They in fact want to press on with further closings, despite knowing all of this?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It all depends on your values, I guess.

      Delete
    2. The current mortality rate is like a very bad flu season. We didn't shut down the whole economy for the flu. We shouldn't shut down the whole economy for covid 19. High risk people, like me, can make it a point to stay home a lot and to take precautions.

      Delete
    3. No, it is 10 times worse than a bad flu season and it has only just begun.

      Delete
    4. Deaths are now running around 600 per day. The rate has been declining. If the rate of 600/day continues for 4 more months, that will be 74,000 deaths. A recent very bad fly season killed 80,000 Americans.

      Article from Sept., 2018:

      "An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades.

      "The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press.

      "Flu experts knew it was a very bad season, but at least one found size of the estimate surprising."

      https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

      Delete
    5. Huh?

      We already have 130k+ deaths in the US alone.

      The Covid19 death rate is many times higher than the flu rate.

      The flu has a vaccine, and the flu death rate is without any actions to mitigate, such as masks and social distancing. Without those actions, Covid19 might have caused over a million deaths already.

      Flu deaths are estimations at best, we have no idea how many people die from flus, it is very likely way overblown. The only flu deaths actually counted are for children, which is usually a handful, a few dozen at the most.

      It is remarkable how low the integrity of Republicans is.

      Delete
  4. Somerby quotes the following:

    "June 8-June 14: 710.9
    June 15-June 21: 585.9
    June 24-June 30: 543.9"

    What happened to the dates June 22-23? They are missing, with no explanation by Somerby.

    As much as he complains about the way others report data, this is ridiculous.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tracing has increased and counts of "increasing cases" are next to meaningless without randomized serology testing. We literally known nothing about whether cases have increased.

    ReplyDelete
  6. A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
    Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
    Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
    Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/
    Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542

    ReplyDelete

  7. I am very happy to share this little awesome testimony about Dr Okosun a great herbal doctor who help me enlarge my penis size.3.2 cm to 8.3 cm longer with his herbal mixture, my girlfriend is now so amazed with the autonomous size of my penis , if you you are also in need of help on how to enlarge your penis to become bigger and stronger I advice you to contact Dr Okosun on his email (drokosun12@gmail.com )or contact him on whatsapp number +2348136785562, if your penis is 4.2 cm and want to get it reach 9.2 cm within two weeks i recommend Dr Okosun just feel like promoting his Good work, Give him a try and thank me later.

    ReplyDelete
  8. HOW DR AZIBA HELPED ME ENLARGE MY PENIS SIZE FROM 3.5 INCHES TO 11INCHES LONG AND 8.0 GROWTH https://naturalherbsmedicine.webs.com/
    I got married 2 years ago and it just seemed that there was no excitement in my sex life. My dysfunction to perform to the best of my abilities in bed made it harder for my wife and me to have a good time during sex. And i was having the feelings that she may decide to get a divorce one day. I knew something had to be done in order to improve my sex life and to save my marriage because my marriage was already falling apart, so when i was on my Facebook page i came across a story of how Dr Aziba helped him enlarged his penis to 8ins better.so i Immediately copied the Email address of the Dr and explained to him my problem,he gave me some simply instruction which i must follow and i did easily and my friends Today, i am the happiest man on Earth, All Thanks to Dr Aziba for saving my marriage and making me a real man today.i asked him about some purpular diseases like HERPES,HIV AIDS,HEPATITIS,DIABETICS, CANCERS, WART, Get Ex back ,etc....... which are affecting most people he said there is no disease without a cure , he has it all...You can as well reach the Dr below for help on your problem, for he has the solution to all...
    Email:[ PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL COM ]
    WhatsAPP DR [ +2348100368288 ]

    ReplyDelete
  9. A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
    Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
    Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
    Website: http://emutemple.website2.me/
    Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542

    ReplyDelete
  10. I was married for 13 years. My marriage has been deteriorating for some time so it was bound to unravel. I was her loyal, faithful supportive and trusting Husband. She had an additional wild side that went out of control. The last incident was when I found out that she was having an affair 2 weeks before our 14th wedding anniversary. Out of the blue my wife just sprung the divorce talk on me. I was so hurt and being a man, I thought I could cope with being single. It was so hard to move on so i had to reach out for help online. Our marriage and family therapists thought that "something" was not right about my wife. I went online and i found out about Dr Ogweshan and his good spell work reviews. I contacted him and explained my situation to him and he told me not worry that my wife will come back to me after 3 days. 3 days later in the morning around 09:34am I was totally shocked on how my wife called me telling me how much she missed me. His spell worked on me so fast and my wife has been so loving, Natural and I'm having a happy marriage after using his love spell. If you are in a loveless and unhappy marriage that cannot be salvaged, believe me...There is light at the end of this tunnel. You can reach him on his contact details. Email: drogweshan@gmail.com  Whatsapp: +2347050670365  

    ReplyDelete
  11. A GREAT SPELL CASTER (DR. EMU) THAT HELP ME BRING BACK MY EX GIRLFRIEND.
    Am so happy to testify about a great spell caster that helped me when all hope was lost for me to unite with my ex-girlfriend that I love so much. I had a girlfriend that love me so much but something terrible happen to our relationship one afternoon when her friend that was always trying to get to me was trying to force me to make love to her just because she was been jealous of her friend that i was dating and on the scene my girlfriend just walk in and she thought we had something special doing together, i tried to explain things to her that her friend always do this whenever she is not with me and i always refuse her but i never told her because i did not want the both of them to be enemies to each other but she never believed me. She broke up with me and I tried times without numbers to make her believe me but she never believed me until one day i heard about the DR. EMU and I emailed him and he replied to me so kindly and helped me get back my lovely relationship that was already gone for two months.
    Email him at: Emutemple@gmail.com
    Call or Whats-app him: +2347012841542

    ReplyDelete
  12. I visited my doctor for a second opinion to verify that I am currently experiencing genital warts on both sides of my inner labia caused by HSV which I was not aware I had until the genital warts appeared. I discovered them about 2 months ago and it saddened me to find the warts because I felt it meant I had contracted an STD,I never applied medical drugs or therapies,because I prefer going natural routes first if any are available. At first, I was not sure I’d be able to use anything since the labia is such a sensitive area but I remembered that I had been reviewing series of testimonies on how herbal doctor razor had been curing people of Genital warts, And I had Them on the bottoms of my feet so I decided to try doctor razor herbs. Thankfully, Doctor razor herbal medication seems to be getting rid of the genital warts. When I first began applying it I noticed some slight aching feelings in my vaginal area that I had never felt before. I no longer feel the aches though. I AM SO GRATEFUL TO BE COMPLETELY CURED OF THIS VIRUS.However, I don’t feel the shame anymore and am so grateful to Mother Nature and Doctor Razor for helping a sister out. Reach him on Email : drrazorherbalhome@gmail.com Whatsapp/Call his cell phone on +2349065420442. Visit Doctor Razor's Website : https://drrazorherbalhome.wixsite.com/drrazorherbalhome

    ReplyDelete