David Leonhardt fumbles about!


The skills of the upper-end press corps:
His analysis is the featured front-page report in today's New York Times.

It sits at the top of page A1. In print editions, the headline says this:
U.S. Is Alone Among Peers In Failing to Contain Virus
That's a wholly accurate statement. Early on in his report, David Leonhardt says this:
LEONHARDT (8/7/20): Nearly every country has struggled to contain the coronavirus and made mistakes along the way.


Yet even with all of these problems, one country stands alone, as the only affluent nation to have suffered a severe, sustained outbreak for more than four months: the United States.

Over the past month, about 1.9 million Americans have tested positive for the virus. That’s more than five times as many as in all of Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia, combined.

Even though some of these countries saw worrying new outbreaks over the past month, including 50,000 new cases in Spain, the outbreaks still pale in comparison to those in the United States.
Leonhardt's basic premise is plainly true. The United States has handled the virus much more poorly than every comparable nation. Plainly, we're the train wreck of the developed world when it comes to the virus.

We agree with Leonhardt's basic claim. We don't agree with the way he argues in support of his claim.

How does Leonhardt struggle and fail? We think there are two basic problems:

He emphasizes "cases," not deaths: Right from the start, Leonhardt focuses on "cases" rather than deaths. For many doubters, this will play right into Trump's strong hand—the wide array of phony claims he has made about "cases" and testing.

Many people believe Trump's central claim—his claim that we have more "cases" because we do much more testing. "Cases" is a nebulous statistic to begin with, but it's also the statistic many people will be reluctant to believe.

When he discusses deaths, he uses the less instructive statistic: Eventually, Leonhardt does talk about deaths.

When he does, he uses the less significant measure of deaths—and his presentation is selective and misleading:
LEONHARDT: Already, the American death toll is of a different order of magnitude than in most other countries. With only 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States has accounted for 22 percent of coronavirus deaths. Canada, a rich country that neighbors the United States, has a per capita death rate about half as large. And these gaps may worsen in coming weeks, given the lag between new cases and deaths.
Finally, in that passage, Leonhardt discusses our "per capita death rate." But he doesn't do so until that passage, which is paragraph 18.

When he does discuss deaths instead of cases, he discusses total deaths to date (per capita). He skips the more seminal statistic—current daily or weekly deaths (per capita).

Leonhardt wants to show that were the train wreck of the developed world, but he chooses the wrong way to do it. Even now, the United States isn't the worst in the developed world at the measure Leonhardt discusses.

We may be substantially worse than Canada, but five other developed nations are still substantially worse than we are. Below, you see the data:
Total deaths to date, per million population:
Belgium: 850
United Kingdom: 685
Spain: 610
Italy: 582
Sweden: 570
United States: 493
Canada: 237
Even now, we aren't the worst among developed nations at total deaths to date (per capita). Canada is doing better than we are, but five European countries are still doing worse. In short, the U.S. is not "alone among peers" if that's the measure you're using.

That said, we're the god-awful worst, by far, at current daily or weekly deaths. Here you see the god-awful way we compare, in our current stumblebum state, to the countries listed above:
Deaths in the past seven days, as of August 7:
United States: 8,034
United Kingdom: 414
Spain: 57
Italy: 55
Canada: 37
Sweden: 27
Belgium: 20
Those numbers haven't been adjusted for population. But even if you do adjust, our current daily/weekly death rate dwarfs those of all comparable nations.

When it comes to current deaths, we're a god-awful joke. We're the current train wreck of the developed world, by far.

Leonhardt's (accurate) point is that we are the train wreck of the developed world. Plainly, a person can't establish that point with the "death rate" statistic he chose.

Our gruesome status only becomes clear when you talk about current, ongoing death rates. But when Leonhardt stops talking "cases" and starts talking deaths, he uses the statistic which doesn't show what a pitiful train wreck we are.

Can we talk? Our major journalists are amazingly bad at almost all professional tasks. (Leonhardt, who went to Yale, has long been sold as one of the smart ones.)

In this morning's front-page report, Leonhardt started with "cases," a nebulous statistic which plays into Trump's hands. And when he finally started discussing deaths, he used the statistic which doesn't show how bad our current state is.

One last point:

Online, the Times has added a graphic right under paragraph 18. The graphic shows a version of (current) "Daily deaths per million."

That's the statistic Leonhardt didn't use in paragraph 18. In order to show what a train wreck we are, it's the statistic he should have used. Online at the Times, no explanation is offered.

People reading the Times online will just have to figure the whole thing out for themselves. That graphic didn't appear in that location in this morning's sprawling report in the hard-copy Times. So it goes as our brightest journalists try to explain the world.

Our journalists are masters of very few skills. Memorization of Storyline may be their only real skill.

Our journalists are masters of very few skills. This fact is highly counterintuitve, but it's plainly true.


  1. "Leonhardt's basic premise is plainly true."

    Well, only if you're a Orange Man Bad dembot, dear Bob.

    Otherwise, it is, of course, utter bullshit, just like all the rest of Orange Man Bad dembottery.

    You can't compare the US with Canada; at best you could compare places like Vermont, Montana, N.Dakota, and Alaska with Canada.

    Try it, dear Bob, and see how that will come out; who's in a different order of magnitude.

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  2. "Many people believe Trump's central claim—his claim that we have more "cases" because we do much more testing."

    Digby publishes the results of a Pew poll about what Republicans and Democrats believe. The people who believe this about testing are that same 38% that still support Trump. Beyond that, most people believe there are more cases because there are more infections, not solely because there is more testing. That same 38% believe the US is the same as or more effective at controlling covid than peer countries. These questions seem to be a test of whether someone supports Trump or not, not what they hear and understand about covid.


    1. Somerby does not care about geography.

      One unique trait about the US is that much of the population is fairly rural. When you look at areas of similar population and density, the US has by far the worst death rate, for example NY has a per million death rate of 1,688, way beyond any other area in the world, well except for a bunch of other US states.

  3. If you are talking about "controlling" the virus, you need to talk about cases because it matters that people are getting sick in large numbers, not just that some die. If the disease were never fatal, you couldn't say that the virus was "under control" simply because no one dies of it. Cases are how you measure the degree of control of the virus.

  4. This whole thing is an idiotic hoax. You can't "control" a virus. What is the plan here, exactly? To remain locked into our homes for ever and ever? Until there's a vaccine? What if there is never a vaccine, or even just no vaccine in, say, the next 5 years?

    Is the developed world going to stay locked down for 5 years? How? That doesn't seem possible, and almost certainly suicide deaths will exceed the deaths the virus would have caused, and it will actually kill people less than 80 years old, unlike this wanna-be flu.

    1. "This whole thing is an idiotic hoax."

      Yeah, it's all dembottery; liberals desperately trying to steal a couple of percentage points for Rapist Joe.

      FWIW, Sweden probably has the best approach: no hysteria, no lock-downs, no bullshit, normal life.

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    3. How about your home country of Russia, Mao ?

    4. Mao, you should probably wander across the border from Russia (through Finland) into Sweden and see how normal it is.

  5. Number of cases is not a "meaningless" statistic, as about 15% -- that's the number I had heard a little while ago -- of the infected will require medical care and hospitalization. Some percentage will require ICU care, which is particularly problematic in far-flung rural counties where there may be one or two ICU beds. Here, in Oregon, rural counties are driving the number of cases. I just traveled through some of these rural counties and caught bits and pieces of people's conversation. They are resentful of masks and school closures and everything else that comes along with the governor's orders. But when the shit hits the fan, they will have to send their sick people to Portland and other larger cities, potentially overwhelming those places as well.

    1. Dirty little open secret:
      Republicans hate rural America, and do nothing for them.

  6. I keep making the same comment here, but the Times's lie makes me want to scream. A true statement is
    "With only 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States has accounted for 22 percent of REPORTED coronavirus deaths."
    Nobody knows how many UNREPORTED coronavirus deaths there have been. Countries like Russia, China and Iran flat-out lie about their numbers. Many poor countries do not do enough little testing to know their total number of coronavirus deaths. North Korea doesn't report at all.

    Surely the Times has been made aware of the difference between "cases" and "reported cases".

    BTW common sense shows how ridiculous that Times's statement is. Countries with higher mortality rates than the US include Belgium, UK, Spain Italy and Sweden. Does is make sense that that these wealthy countries, with top-notch medicine, have the worst results in the world? I don't think so.

    1. I would add the the US has done 25% of the world's virus tests and had 22% of the world's known virus cases. The similarity of these two percentages is not a coincidence IMO.

    2. You should know better than to make such an argument, David. It makes no sense at all. To draw your conclusion, you would have to be sure that everyone in the US was tested. You are implying that 100% of those tested have the virus, when the actual figures vary and are considerably lower (10%-25% of those tested are positive). You are reasoning like a child who thinks that a cat and a dog are the same animal because they both have four legs.

    3. @10:14 The CDC believes that in the US most infected people have never been tested. The CDC estimated that for every person tested positive, there are at least ten other people who had the disease but were never tested. A great many people have the disease with no symptoms. The more one tests, the more asymptomatic sufferers one will discover.

    4. One person died every minute today because of Trump. We'll have 300,000 dead at least before the end of the year, a majority of them due to Trump's incompetence and weakness as a man and a leader. In a year, he will have killed more people than died in all of WWII.

      The return to school will be a major disaster as it was in Israel. States are having to band together to get tests because of Trumps' lack of leadership and courage:


      ""A test result that comes back in seven or eight days is worthless for everybody -- it shouldn't even be counted," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security in Baltimore. "It's not a test in any kind of effective manner because it's not actionable."

      Trump's ball-less, pathetic response to this plague is an international scandal and will cement his place as easily the worst leader American ever had and one of the worst world leaders in the last 12 centuries. (Not THEE worst.)

      It's too bad. It's not like it would have been that hard. One would just need to have courage and tiny bit of instinct. A 6 year old girl could have handling the crisis better than Trump. He just wasn't prepared for it and doesn't have the skills it takes to be a great man or a great leader. That's just an obvious fact. (He has done some good things for sure but the virus response erased them all and then some.)

      It's too bad we had Trump during Covid. Hillary, despite being a corrupt queen of all warmongers, at least has balls. She would have gotten it done. So, so, so many are dead and will die because of Trump's lack of courage and weakness as a man.

    5. @1:26 - what specific actions would a Democratic President have taken that Trump failed to take?

    6. If Hillary Clinton was President, there would be a dozen investigations ongoing about the 300 American deaths caused by COVID.

    7. It's not about Democratic or Republican It would be the same if it was Mitt Romney or Ron Paul. They would have formed a national strategy. And rallied the country around defeating this virus and defeating it more soundly than any other country. Rally the country around it like the moon landing. Kick the ass of the virus. They would not have played on our divisions and and given unending stream of conflicting messages. It's about being a competent human being. It's about being an adult man or woman. The competent leader would have not left and empty stockpile empty for 3 years. They would have not lied about it as it became serious. They would not have delivered messages to their constituents that it was okay not to wear a mask when it wasn't. They would not belittle their political opponents for calling attention to the seriousness of the matter. Most simply, they would not have put their election prospects over the American lives as Dumbshit has.

      They would have locked down the whole country in the third or fourth week of March. In the same way NBA stopped their season and Apple closed all their stores, followed the following week by most other retailers. If those institutions got it, why didn't Trump? The European countries locked everything down and made confinement and masks mandatory. Why didn't Trump? Why not? Why would he think that we would not need to do what the rest of the world was doing? A competent human being would have simply followed exactly what the rest of the world was doing. The competent person would respect nature. And respect risk. A competent human being would understand the historical gravity of the matter. Trump, unbelievably, never even grasped the historical context of this! (It changed to political stakes and rules.) A president who wasn't a selfish, lazy, weak, moron would have deferred to medical experts and risk experts. They would have form coalition and consensus. They would not have pressured states to reopen too early against the advice of experts and only for the reason to try to get the economy back on track so they could win an election. They would understand this is nothing that can be manipulated through persuasion and propaganda. Specifically, they would have faced the reality and locked the country down, made masks mandatory, had a national strategy. Trump one week was saying that he had the ultimate power in the next week he was telling the states that they were all on their own. These are the reactions of a weak weak weak man. A competent human being would make a stand, that's what great leaders do. Trump is a wishy washy boy. A competent human would respect mother nature, respect the historical context and the value of human lives. They wold have shut the country down. And now so many are dead because of one weak man.

      Why do I have to explain these obvious things to you? What is the matter with you? Why would you ask such a stupid fucking question?

    8. Trump tried to gaslight the virus, like it was some common Chuck Todd.

    9. Exactly. Trump was playing the same divide and conquer game he does in an ordinary political situation. He was too stupid to see this was an event that changed that game and changed the rules. His stupidity and lack of awareness is astonishing. I guess it's probably true that Trump has never studied world history or great world leaders. He never studied Napoleon or Alexander the Great. He probably knows nothing at all about them. I guess. It's amazing a man could be as obtuse as Dumbass is and was but one explanation is a total lack of historical knowledge.

      It's such a baby boomer situation. A spoiled ignorant pig who had everything handed to him on a silver platter his whole life was too lazy and stupid to even prepare for the job. He lived in a bubble of ego and excess his whole life that was removed from reality and nature so of course reality and nature mowed him over and destroyed him. That's the way the world works.

    10. Yes, persuasion and propaganda (and bullying) are Trump's gifts. He's really good at it. And he's good at manipulating the news cycle. And he's right about a lot of things he is against. All of that is well and good as far as I am concerned in an ordinary political situation.

      What is so interesting about this is his total lack of a deeper human awareness beyond those more superficial conditions. He treated it as if it was some ordinary news cycle scandal that he could manipulate in the same way he manipulates others.

      It's extraordinary his inability to grasp that a greater, uncontrollable phantom of nature was bearing down on us and would have to be respected and dealt with on different terms than usual.

      It's like when a tsunami is headed towards the beach. All the animals except humans run for the hills. The humans stupidly stay on the beach in bikinis, holding beers watching the destruction barrel down right towards them until bunch of them are wiped out and killed. But the rest of the animals were long gone, headed for higher ground. It's like human beings have a deficiency of instinct in some matters of nature that other animals do you have.

      It's the same way here although you can start to differentiate between humans. Most people could see that this was something different, something that had to be dealt with differently and more forcefully; that it wasn't just an ordinary political situation.

      But some people didn't see that. Some of us, for whatever reason, were not in touch with that part of our nature and didn't understand the gravity.

      It just turns out one of those people was the president. And we'll have more than half a million dead before it's all over because of it.

    11. Hey Boomer in your gated community and gilded bubble of ego and materialism,

      Here's how you do it:


      Easy? No.
      Painful? Yes.
      The only choice of a competent, courageous leader?

      You bet your sweet ass.

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  8. Well, you can't have it both ways, Bob. We either count current deaths, per capita v. other countries, or we don’t. Or we can count “cases,” which we currently don’t, since widespread mitigation factors are not required here as in other countries, which have managed quite well (given a number of outliers).

    If Leonhardt's statistics aren’t satisfying, if his propoganda simply doesn’t cut it, I’m all for his propoganda. Maybe that’s a mistake on my part, but the simple fact is that this pandemic has rocked the entire world. I’m not sure that focusing on statistical arguments as you do here lightens that fact.


    1. Just read the previous post by Bob. He is redeemed for his good points. Too bad he isn't a journalist himself.

      Or is he?


    2. No, he is not a journalist. He is a semi-retired stand up comedian and former teacher. He once wrote a guest op-ed about cheating on standardized tests. He has no background or training as a journalist.

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  11. I see the entire world-wide Covid strategy as represented by this:


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  19. I have been suffering from a deadly disease (Hsv) for the past 3 years now, I had spent a lot of money going from one places to another, from churches to churches, hospitals have been my home every day residence. Constant checks up have been my hobby not until this faithful day, I was searching through the internet, I saw a testimony on how Dr Onokun helped someone in curing his (Hsv) herpes disease, quickly I copied his email which is Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com just to give him a test I spoke to him, he asked me to do some certain things which I did, he told me that he is going to provide the herbal cure to me, which he did, then he asked me to go for medical checkup after some days after using the herbal cure, behold I was free from the deadly disease, he only asked me to post the testimony through the whole world, faithfully am doing it now, please brothers and sisters, he is great, I owe him in return. if you are having a similar problem just email him on : Dronokunherbalcure@gmail.com

  20. My husband and I have been married for over 10 years. We met when I was 18 and he was 21. We’ve been through a lot emotionally together. There were several HUGE fights and painful situations in our marriage, but we always seemed to come out stronger on the other side. Out of the blue my husband just sprung the divorce talk on me, I was totally depressed until I found Dr.Todd website online and I ordered for a Love spell. You won’t believe my husband called me at the exact time this spell caster finished his spell work in 48hrs. I was totally amazed! He is wonderful and his spells work so fast. His Email: manifestspellcast@ gmail. com manifestspellcast.wordpress.com
    WhatsApp:+1 604 901 9747

  21. I completely trusted Dr Paul totally from the time I spoke with him during the period my husband Left me  after11 years of our marriage, He started the spell work on my husband, and gave me so much assurance and guaranteed me that he was going to bring my husband back to my feet in just 48 hours of the spell casting. I was so confident in his work and just as he said in the beginning, my husband is finally back to me again, yes he is back with all his hearts, Love, care, emotions and flowers and things are better now. I would have no hesitation to recommend this powerful spell caster to anybody who is in need of help.. E-mail; astoriashrine @ gmail com

  22. i am so glad to write this article today to tell the world how Dr jones
    cured my HPV virus that have been in my body since five years ago, ever
    since then my life has been in complete,i have used so many drugs that was
    prescribed to me by several doctors,but it didn't cure my HPV VIRUS neither
    did it reduce the pain, i was checking for solution on the internet then
    miraculously came across Dr jones the powerful herbalist that cure HPV
    INFECTION,then i contacted his email, i explained everything to him and he
    prepared a herbal cure and send it to me that was how i got cured from HPV
    disease totally after receiving his herbal medicine, so my friends viewers
    why waiting and be suffering with this HPV virus when there is someone like
    Dr jones that can cure any disease HIV/ CANCER/ HEPATITIS C VIRUS,HERPES
    VIRUS,ALS VIRUS. you can contact his via: email  bantespelltemple@gmail.com  .whatsapp
    or call +2349063962262

  23. I want to thank of great Dr. Todd he brought my boyfriend back to me. i had seen many people to get him back but nothing, Dr. Todd gave me a consultation and told me all truth, and I trusted Dr. Todd and had him do the spells for me. it took awhile because it was very very messy between us. i had to wait for each spell to do its work. but once the last spell finally was working and the other spells had worked, that is when he called. we met. then it took many more meetings. but now we are back together and i can only thank Dr.Todd, he is the greatest, i will come to Dr. Todd for life. Todd took care of me like family. contact; manifestspellcast @ gmail. com manifestspellcast.wordpress.com
    WhatsApp:+1 604 901 9747


  24. LOTTO, lottery,jackpot.
    Hello all my viewers, I am very happy for sharing this great testimonies,The best thing that has ever happened in my life is how I win the lottery euro million mega jackpot. I am a Woman who believe that one day I will win the lottery. finally my dreams came through when I email believelovespelltemple@gmail.com and tell him I need the lottery numbers. I have spend so much money on ticket just to make sure I win. But I never know that winning was so easy until the day I meant the spell caster online which so many people has talked about that he is very great in casting lottery spell, . so I decide to give it a try.I contacted this great Dr Believe and he did a spell and he gave me the winning lottery numbers. But believe me when the draws were out I was among winners. I win 30,000 million Dollar. Dr Believe truly you are the best, all thanks to you forever