Kevin Drum nervous about poll bounce?

TUESDAY, AUGUST 25, 2020

The bounce which had to be killed:
We don't know if, on balance, his new post is correct. But Kevin Drum almost sounds nervous:
DRUM (8/25/20): Don’t Worry About Poll Bounces

Just a quick reminder: presidential candidates often get poll bounces after their conventions. Sometimes it’s small, sometimes it’s a little better than that. But in virtually every case, the bounces go away a couple of weeks after both conventions have been held. So don’t get either excited or worried if either Trump or Biden go either up or down by the end of this week. By September it will all be gone.
We aren't sure if post-convention poll bounces even exist any more. It's often said that, in such tribalized times as these, there are so few undecided voters that those famous old bounces no longer exist.

That said, we became nostalgic as we read the highlighted sentence. It made us think of a major post-convention poll bounce—a major bounce which wouldn't die, and therefore had to be killed.

In particular, Brian Williams played a fascinating role in the killing of that bounce. Not that anyone ever cared, but people are dead all over Iraq because the bounce which wouldn't die did, in fact, get killed.

That bounce got killed by the mainstream press. For that reason, you'll see it discussed nowhere else.

What occurs in the press corps stays in the press corps! If only for the sake of nostalgia, remind us to review the history of that major poll bounce some day.

58 comments:

  1. If the bounce goes away, what difference does it make whether Brian Williams stifles it or not? It seems purely ceremonial.

    According to polls, Biden has received a 5 point bounce following the Democratic convention. Why would Somerby imply that he received no bounce, or that such bounces are no longer a thing? Minimizing any success of the Democratic candidate is a Republican tactic.

    It seems likely that if Gore's bounce went away, it wasn't because of Brian Williams. He just isn't that big a deal and he doesn't have that power. Somerby is spreading blame pretty indiscriminately for a phenomenon he professes not to understand.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That bounce did not go away. It was sent away by Williams and Kathleens and Maureens

      Delete
    2. Why would TDH imply that bounces aren't longer a thing?

      First of all, it's Drum who says they're not a thing, or at least so unimportant a thing that they'll be gone by next month.

      So I guess according to you, Drum is a Republican now.

      Secondly TDH doesn't imply anything about poll bounces. He outright says that he's not sure whether post-convention bounces are real, and he tells you why he's not sure: the paucity of undecided voters.

      Somerby is spreading blame pretty indiscriminately for a phenomenon he professes not to understand.

      Says the ignoramus who apparently thinks TDH wrote something about not understanding the phenomenon.

      Delete
    3. Oh, if only the media were exactly the same as 20 years ago, imagine the relevance TDH would enjoy.

      Delete
    4. Drum is a moderate, not particularly liberal and definitely not progressive. Somerby likes him because he includes graphs in his blog.

      The way deadrat quibbles over language, you'd think he didn't read for content at all.

      The point is that you cannot argue about who suppressed a bounce if you have just said that there is no such thing as a convention bounce. But deadrat wants to argue about whether "imply" means the same thing as "said". Somerby certainly implied things about bounces if he said them outright. And if he says he is "not sure" then how can you claim that he "understands" bounces?

      deadrat will manufacture any trivial quibble in order to make it appear there is something to oppose in an anonymous comment, as long as the comment is critical of Somerby, because his main purpose here is not to express an opinion about anything, but to defend Somerby. That is a lost cause, deadrat. He is not worth defending because he long ago stopped making sense.

      Delete
    5. It can be frustrating to read Anonymous Ignoramuses as they try to respond to blog entries and comments, but it's a tough job that nobody has to do, and I guess I'm just the nobody to do it.

      Drum is a moderate, not particularly liberal and definitely not progressive.

      OK, not my impression, but I don't read Drum very often, so let's go with your assessment. The point is that wherever you put Drum on the political spectrum, he certainly isn't a Republican. He is however, someone who questions the significance of post-election bounces. According to @10:05 that's a "Republican tactic."

      The point here is that it's absurd to call everyone you disagree with a Republican.

      The point is that you cannot argue about who suppressed a bounce if you have just said that there is no such thing as a convention bounce.

      But if you argue, as TDH did, that there isn't a post-convention bounce any more, you can still argue that there used to be a convention bounce, and in fact there was one for Gore that was suppressed. And you think I'm the one who can't read for comprehension.

      Somerby certainly implied things about bounces if he said them outright.

      No, if he said them outright, they're not implicit. I'm sorry to quibble over the meaning of words.

      [deadrat's] main purpose here is not to express an opinion about anything, but to defend Somerby.

      You're really interested in my opinion? How flattering. You could just ask or you could read my comment yesterday @4:50P about how TDH is off base.

      [deadrat] He is not worth defending because he long ago stopped making sense.

      I'm not asking anyone to defend me. It would be nice if you could actually post a coherent argument against what I actually wrote instead of guessing about things like my "purpose." I understand that might be too hard for you. Bear in mind that just because you fail to understand something doesn't mean that it doesn't make sense.

      Delete
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  2. Somerby, that was the time (post convention) I got hooked on DH. Thank You.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hopefully, Brian Williams doesn’t read this blog. If he did, surely his head would swell, seeing as how he’s singlehandedly responsible for Gore’s poll bounce deflation AND all those dead in Iraq.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you kidding? Brian Williams has long taken credit for that stuff, as well as for 4 button suits.

      Delete
    2. Our friendly ESL ghost speaks!

      Delete
    3. Oh, and that’s English?

      I had to google it.

      Delete
    4. Looks like you gets the lasty word!

      Delete
    5. Sure ‘nuff.

      (Now I does.)

      Delete
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  27. My name is Bernada Gaspar. Out of respect for you and your spells I must make this testimony know to all. I've been to other spell casters without seeing any result, all they want was after my money. I just wished I came to you earlier, i got the best from you. My ex husband was gone for a year and I went everywhere and other spell casters for help but no result until my friend introduce me to Dr Isikolo. After the Love Spell was done, I finally got a calls from him in less than 48 hours. His spells worked wonders and my husband is back with full of love. It was like a miracle! He suddenly came back with flowers saying that i should for give him, i was truly flabbergasted and shocked when my husband kneel down begging for forgiveness and for me to accept him back. I'm really short of words and joyful, you are a God sent to me and my entire family.. And now i am a joyful woman once again. Thank you so much Dr Isikolo. To everyone who is looking for a real spell caster contact Dr.Isikolo at isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com You can also Whatsapp him on +2348133261196
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    ReplyDelete
  28. How to have your husband back home with your kids again

    I'm a lady with 2 kids i am from USA, my husband leave me and his 2 kids for about 10 months i go through a lot of pain i do all i could to make him returned to me and to his kids but nothing works out. it was really a stressful period to me because i could dint go through the heartbreak. i was told to get a love spell doctor contacted to help me out which i did i was lucky to get DR.PEPOKO Contact who was able to help me out, he cast up a love spell that brought back my husband to me and to his kids thanks so much DR. PEPOKO I really appreciate what you have done for me. here he his contact if you may required for it by solving your relationship email. Pepokospiritemple@gmail.com or you can call and whatssap him +2348156148821
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  29. Hello, I am Leona Filip. After being in relationship with my husband for years, he broke up with me. I did everything within my reach to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so badly because of the love I had for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to my friend and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back , I had no choice than to try it. I messaged the spell caster, and he assured me there was no problem and that everything will be okay before two days. He cast the spell and surprisingly on the second day, my husband called me. I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that had happened He wanted me to return to him. He also said he loved me so much. I was so happy and went to him that was how we started living together happily again. The spell casters email is : isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com. You can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or any other Case. 1) Love Spells 2) Lost Love Spells 3) Divorce Spells 4) Marriage Spells 5) Binding Spell. 6) Breakup Spells 7) Banish a past Lover 8.) You want to be promoted in your office/ Lottery spell 9) want to satisfy your lover Contact this great man if you are having any problem for a lasting solution through isikolosolutionhome@gmail.com You can also WhatsApp him on +2348133261196.
    visit his (DR ISIKOLO) website: https://isikololovetemple.com

    ReplyDelete
  30. How to have your husband back home with your kids again

    I'm a lady with 2 kids i am from USA, my husband leave me and his 2 kids for about 10 months i go through a lot of pain i do all i could to make him returned to me and to his kids but nothing works out. it was really a stressful period to me because i could dint go through the heartbreak. i was told to get a love spell doctor contacted to help me out which i did i was lucky to get DR.PEPOKO Contact who was able to help me out, he cast up a love spell that brought back my husband to me and to his kids thanks so much DR. PEPOKO I really appreciate what you have done for me. here he his contact if you may required for it by solving your relationship email. Pepokospiritemple@gmail.com or you can call and whatssap him +2348156148821
    Here is also Dr. PEPOKO website you can visit it yourself www.pepokospiritemple.blogspot.com





    How to have your husband back home with your kids again

    I'm a lady with 2 kids i am from USA, my husband leave me and his 2 kids for about 10 months i go through a lot of pain i do all i could to make him returned to me and to his kids but nothing works out. it was really a stressful period to me because i could dint go through the heartbreak. i was told to get a love spell doctor contacted to help me out which i did i was lucky to get DR.PEPOKO Contact who was able to help me out, he cast up a love spell that brought back my husband to me and to his kids thanks so much DR. PEPOKO I really appreciate what you have done for me. here he his contact if you may required for it by solving your relationship email. Pepokospiritemple@gmail.com or you can call and whatssap him +2348156148821
    Here is also Dr. PEPOKO website you can visit it yourself www.pepokospiritemple.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  31. My name is Julian Marcus I'm from United Kingdom...I just found out about my husband cheating on me with a co-worker! We’ve been married for two years now with 2kids with lots of amazing moments together, i wanted to leave, but i love him so much. we are both still young and very attractive. but i want my husband, my friend, and the father of my beautiful children. how do i get past the thought of another woman having my husband? Not my fiancé, not my boyfriend, but my husband! i still love him even though he thinks i want to leave i really want him to do better and stop me before i walk out! my husband told me that he doesn’t feel loved anymore, just because of this co-worker he has be cheating on me with, that he wants a divorce, i was devastated, heart broken i begged him to listen to me that we can work it out like we always do, but he didn’t listen, he told me that he met someone that loves and understands him, i begged him to consider our kids but he didn't listen. he left and i was frustrated, i began searching for help and answers, then i heard about a man that can Cast a spell to remind him of all the things we have been through together and bring him back to me, at first I was scared then i decided to give it a try, and like magic my husband came back, apology and begging for forgiveness, thanks to priestbacasim, I’m posting this to help people with similar issues. You can contact him via his email pristbacasim2000@gmail.com or whatsapp +2348144258822 for help too.

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  32. After 5 years in marriage with my husband with 2 kids, my husband started acting weird and going out with other ladies and showed me cold love, on several occasions he threatens to divorce me if I dare question him about his affair with other ladies, I was totally devastated and confused until a old friend of mine told me about a spell caster on the internet called Dr Ilekhojie who help people with relationship and marriage problem by the powers of love spells, at first I doubted if such thing ever exists but decided to give it a try, when I contact him, he helped me cast a love spell and within 48 hours my husband came back to me and started apologizing, now he has stopped going out with other ladies and his with me for good and for real. Contact this great love spell caster for your relationship or marriage problem to be solved today via: Email: gethelp05@gmail.com or directly Whatsapp +2348147400259

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  34. My name is Julian Marcus I'm from United Kingdom...I just found out about my husband cheating on me with a co-worker! We’ve been married for two years now with 2kids with lots of amazing moments together, i wanted to leave, but i love him so much. we are both still young and very attractive. but i want my husband, my friend, and the father of my beautiful children. how do i get past the thought of another woman having my husband? Not my fiancé, not my boyfriend, but my husband! i still love him even though he thinks i want to leave i really want him to do better and stop me before i walk out! my husband told me that he doesn’t feel loved anymore, just because of this co-worker he has be cheating on me with, that he wants a divorce, i was devastated, heart broken i begged him to listen to me that we can work it out like we always do, but he didn’t listen, he told me that he met someone that loves and understands him, i begged him to consider our kids but he didn't listen. he left and i was frustrated, i began searching for help and answers, then i heard about a man that can Cast a spell to remind him of all the things we have been through together and bring him back to me, at first I was scared then i decided to give it a try, and like magic my husband came back, apologize and begging for forgiveness, thanks to priestbacasim, I’m posting this to help people with similar issues. You can contact him via his email pristbacasim2000@gmail.com or whatsapp +2348144258822 for help too.

    ReplyDelete
  35. My name is Julian Marcus I'm from United Kingdom...I just found out about my husband cheating on me with a co-worker! We’ve been married for two years now with 2kids with lots of amazing moments together, i wanted to leave, but i love him so much. we are both still young and very attractive. but i want my husband, my friend, and the father of my beautiful children. how do i get past the thought of another woman having my husband? Not my fiancé, not my boyfriend, but my husband! i still love him even though he thinks i want to leave i really want him to do better and stop me before i walk out! my husband told me that he doesn’t feel loved anymore, just because of this co-worker he has be cheating on me with, that he wants a divorce, i was devastated, heart broken i begged him to listen to me that we can work it out like we always do, but he didn’t listen, he told me that he met someone that loves and understands him, i begged him to consider our kids but he didn't listen. he left and i was frustrated, i began searching for help and answers, then i heard about a man that can Cast a spell to remind him of all the things we have been through together and bring him back to me, at first I was scared then i decided to give it a try, and like magic my husband came back, apologize and begging for forgiveness, thanks to priestbacasim, I’m posting this to help people with similar issues. You can contact him via his email pristbacasim2000@gmail.com or whatsapp +2348144258822 for help too.

    ReplyDelete
  36. My husband and I have been married for over 10 years. We met when I was 18 and he was 21. We’ve been through a lot emotionally together. There were several HUGE fights and painful situations in our marriage, but we always seemed to come out stronger on the other side. Out of the blue my husband just sprung the divorce talk on me, I was totally depressed until I found Dr.Todd website online and I ordered for a Love spell. You won’t believe my husband called me at the exact time this spell caster finished his spell work in 48hrs. I was totally amazed! He is wonderful and his spells work so fast. His Email: manifestspellcast@ gmail. com manifestspellcast.wordpress.com

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  37. Testimony By Lizzy Desler. How to get your ex back fast! I was hurt and heart broken when a very big problem occurred in my marriage seven months ago, between me and my husband . so terrible that he took the case to court for a divorce. he said that he never wanted to stay with me again, and that he didn't love me anymore. So he packed out of the house and made me and my children passed through severe pain. I tried all my possible means to get him back, after much begging, but all to no avail. and he confirmed it that he has made his decision, and he never wanted to see me again. So on one evening, as i was coming back from work, i met an old friend of mine who asked of my husband .So i explained every thing to him, so he told me that the only way i can get my husband back, is to visit a priest, because it has really worked for him too. So i never believed in spell, but i had no other choice, than to follow his advice. Then he gave me the Email address of the priest whom he visited. Pristbacasim2000@gmail.com. So the next morning, i sent a mail to the address he gave to me, and the priest assured me that i will get my husband back the next day. What an amazing statement!! I never believed, so he spoke with me, and told me everything that i need to do. Then the next morning, So surprisingly, my husband who didn't call me for the past 7 months, gave me a call to inform me that he was coming back. So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day, with lots of love and joy, and he apologized for his mistake, and for the pain he caused me and my children. Then from that day, our relationship was now stronger than how it were before, by the help of a priest. So, i will advice you out there if you have any problem contact Priestbacasim, i give you 100% guarantee that he will help you.. Email him at: Pristbacasim2000@gmail.com or WhatsApp him on +15202103368

    ReplyDelete

  38. Life is a mystery with many questions that needs answers, what trouble are you facing on earth?
    Did your husband or wife leave your life without any good explanation which makes you confused and you want them back in your life? Dr Ilekhojie is the right man for the job, he is a powerful spell caster blessed by his ancestors and accepted by the gods as their mouthpiece on earth, Dr Ilekhojie help me save my broken home by bringing back my husband to me with his powerful spell. I and my husband was separated 9 months without communication but with the spell cast by Dr Ilekhojie, he is back and we are one happy family again. Contact Dr Ilekhojie if you are facing any kind of life problems and you need a quick solution. Viber or Whatsapp: +2348147400259 or email: gethelp05@gmail.com

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  39. Love never gives up, never loses faith, is always hopeful, and endures through every circumstances. I give God all the glory for bringing Lord Zakuza into my life for helping me get my wife back that got me divorced for one year. I was the last person on earth to accept the fact that spells exist or work not until I was referred to Lord Zakuza online to who has helped so many people with his powerful spells. I had no other option than to give it a try because 3 months after the divorce, I was demoted at my place of work due to depression for I don't know what to do to get her back but thank God today for using Lord Zakuza to get my happiness and love life back within 48 hours. Just last week here, I was promoted back to my position and I'm here to share my own experience with this man called Lord Zakuza. I don't know what you are going through today but know that in all situation there's always a way out. Lord Zakuza also prepares spells like Lottery spell, job spell, spell to stop a divorce, spell cure for any diseases, protection spell, spell to become successful and wealthy E.T.C. Contact him now for any help via TEXT OR WHATSAPP MESSENGER with: +1 740-573-9483 and Email on: Lordzakuza7@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  40. It WORKS! My ex blocked me on every platform. It took a while, about two months or so, but HE UNBLOCKED ME JUST A FEW HOURS AGO! Don’t give up! IT WORKS! contact Dr. Ilekhojie for help now. we are back together. Have faith in this process..Here his contact..WhatsApp him: +2348147400259 ,
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    ReplyDelete
  41. After being married for four years, My husband just decide to walk away. I did everything within my reach to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so badly because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused.I explained my problem to my friend and she suggested that I should rather contact Dr Ilekhojie that he could help me cast reconciliation spell to bring him back. I had no choice than to try it. I messaged Dr Ilekhojie and he assured me there was no problem and that everything will be okay before three days. He cast the spell and surprisingly on the second day, my husband called me. I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that had happened he wanted me to return to him. You can also contact Dr Ilekhojie if you need help

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  42. My Boyfriend started going out with other girls and showing me cold love, on several occasions he threatens to broke-up with me if I dare question him about his affair with other girls, I was totally devastated and confused until an old friend of mine told me about a spell caster on the internet Dr Ilekhojie who help people with their relationship and marriage problem by the powers of love Spells, At first I doubted If such thing ever exists but decided to give it a try, When I contact him, he told me everything I needed to do and I did and he helped me cast a reconciliation spell and within 28 Hours my boyfriend came back to me and started apologizing, now he has stopped going out with girls and he is with me for good. Here’s his contact.. CALL/WHATSAPP: +2348147400259 Email: (gethelp05@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
  43. My wife was flirting with another man. until she vanished away, I was desperate to get her back, I wasted so much time and money trying to get my wife back, I tried almost all possibilities to have her back and nothing worked. I became lonely. To make it short, I found a spell caster, Dr Ilekhojie. I saw the good testimonies about his wonderful work and after reading the Testimonials, I decided I had to try and give it one last try and After the spells, a miracle happened, my wife came home. It was awesome, anyone who needs help, should contact him:

    Email: gethelp05@gmail.com
    WhatsApp/Call him on +234-814-740-0259

    ReplyDelete
  44. I'm so excited my broken Marriage has been restored. My ex husband is back after he left me and our 2kids for another woman. I was so happy to meet Dr. Osasu how he helps many people to bring their Lover back so i contact him to help me too. That was how Dr. Osasu helped me to bring my Husband back.. A big thank you to Dr. Osasu because I never thought my ex Husband will be back to me so quickly with your spell. You are the best and world greatest. If you are here and you need your Ex Let you in over back or your husband moves to another woman, do not cry anymore, contact this powerful spell caster now. Here’s his contact: Email him at: drosasu25@gmail.com
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    ReplyDelete
  45. To everyone out there who thinks love spells don't work, I’m here to tell you that Lord Zakuza love spell is the best and most powerful. I am a wealthy man who has lots of assets and possessions but I have difficulty with women. Whenever I try to settle down with any, we end up breaking up and I had no idea of why I was going through such an experience in my relationship. It was so worrying that I couldn’t be myself anymore and I started searching for help everywhere even at my place of work. I was going through my work activities online and I came across a testimony of a lady called ( Febe Anouk ) regarding how Lord Zakuza helped her to restore her relationship with his love spell, I had to give it a try because I needed my Ex lover back that I love so much. I visited Lord Zakuza website online and I told him everything I was going through. Lord Zakuza consoled me and promised to help me out with my situation by preparing a love spell for me. I followed the instructions given by him to me and within 48 hours, my Ex lover came looking for me and pleaded for forgiveness. Since I came in contact with Lord Zakuza, things have changed for good in my life and right now, I am married with two beautiful kids and my home is blessed. All thanks to Lord Zakuza I am forever thankful to you. Visit his website for any help via lordzakuzaspells.com or WhatsApp him on +1 740-573-9483. Try him and your life will be blessed.

    ReplyDelete
  46. I am very happy today with my family. My name is rose sarah living in USA, My husband left me for a good 3 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to Dr.Tebe a spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 weeks. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email nationlovespell@gmail. com Now i will advice any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now a fast solution without steress.. He always hello, now i call him my father.contact him now he is always online email ( nationlovespell@gmail. com ) or contact him on his whatsapp mobile line +2348140544262

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