What makes Trump voters so sure he will win?

TUESDAY, JUNE 16, 2020

The same could be asked about us:
Could a two-fisted drinker like Donald J. Trump win re-election this fall?

Yes, he actually could! Consider Ed Kilgore's report at New York magazine. But mainly, consider the polling figures at FiveThirtyEight to which Kilgore links.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost three million votes. Still, her Electoral College miseries were such that she would have had to win three additional states—Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—to have pulled out a win.

This coming November, the simplest way for Candidate Biden to win would be to win those three states. So how's he doing in those battleground states? According to 538, Biden's running ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but in Wisconsin, he and Donald J. Trump are stone-cold neck and neck.

If Trump hangs on to just one of those states, Biden would have to flip some other state to win. Certainly, he could do that—but at 538, there is no other battleground/swing state where a Biden win seems certain.

To many blue voters, these facts may seem counterintuitive. We keep hearing that Biden has a large lead in the national polls. But even as our tribal sachems pleasure us with this news, they keep forgetting to remind us of the Democratic Party's growing Electoral College disadvantage.

Candidate Clinton lost the Electoral College 304-227 despite winning the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. Because of the growing number of "wasted votes" in blow-out blue states like California and New York, it has been said by people who aren't nuts that Biden could lose the Electoral College this year while piling up a substantially larger win in the popular vote.

Under this scenario, Candidate Biden could win the popular vote by (let's say) as many as six percentage points and still lose the election. On cable, our corporate con men are constantly pleasuring us with the good news in the national polls without warning us about this major problem.

The irony here involves Kilgore himself. We were linked to the polling data at 538 by Kilgore's report. To our eye, what we saw at 538 was anything but encouraging.

We were struck by the way the polls from those battleground states give Trump a way to win. We were also struck by the way the happy talk on liberal cable ignores this potential disaster.

Are blue voters whistling in the dark? Ironically, the Kilgore piece is built upon the premise that Trump's voters are acting like fools!

How can Trump voters think Trump will win? This was Kilgore's eye-rolling premise. It seems to us that the very same question can be directed at us.

We hopeless liberals behaved this way all through Campaign 2016. There was no way Trump could possibly win, we kept saying, even though it was always clear that he actually could.

We're now pushing that line once again! We seem to be playing that same crazy game. Was our team born to lose?

Yes, Virginia! Donald J. Trump could win re-election—if we have an election, that is!

39 comments:

  1. "To many blue voters, these facts may seem counterintuitive."

    And again, dear Bob, I have to remind you: facts are a form of WHITE SUPREMACY.

    Quit talking about those things you call "facts" immediately, please, or it'll be too late for you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You have no idea how much enthusiasm Republicans have and how much the latest law enforcement hate contributes to it or how much we hate CNN and MSNBC.

    It's a replay of 2016 when the left tried this black people are victimized by police bullshit. We also lie to pollsters. My 46 year old ass is working to get the vote out and I've never done that in my life.

    Trump is going to win and we might take the house.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do Republicans have as much enthusiasm as the BLM protesters? That's how much they will need, but even then, they only get one vote apiece.

      But nice illustration of the bubble of wishful thinking that Republicans seem to be inhabiting. Who will vote for a guy as president who cannot even walk down a ramp by himself?

      Hate isn't a strong enough emotion to win an election. For one thing, it scares a lot of people away from you and your well-armed, mask-avoidant racist buddies.

      Delete
    2. I agree with @2:24 that "Hate isn't a strong enough emotion to win an election." However, it seems to me that almost the entire Democratic campaign is based on hate, that is hate of Donald Trump.

      Delete
    3. FDR couldn't walk down a ramp. Rapist Joe couldn't walk up a flight of stairs to exit his sanctuary basement. Hate of CNN and of cop killers gets a lot of people to the polls.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. "Do Republicans have as much enthusiasm as the BLM protesters?"

      Hmm, if I were a BLM activist, I'd definitely vote for Trump.

      The reason is obvious: as soon as a liberal-zombie president is elected, immediately BLM is out of the news. No money, no glamour, no loot, no nothing.

      But if, otoh, The Commander is reelected, that's another 4 glorious BLM years, for sure. Pelosi and Schumer kneeling and washing my feet every day, Monday to Friday.

      But then perhaps BLM activists are too stupid to figure it out. Wouldn't surprise me. And that's your zombie cult's only hope.

      Delete
    6. Democrats have come a long way from the ADA to the ableist "He can't even walk down a ramp" and the pro-rape "I believe Joe Biden's accuser and I'm voting for him."

      It's a grotesque death cult that stands for nothing but death and power for its own sake and enriching Democrat politicians.

      Delete
    7. 2:31,
      No fucking kidding. At this stage, anyone who doesn't know ensuring equality for black people infuriates the Republican base, has their head up their ass.

      Delete
    8. Speaking of "no money, ... nothing," it looks like Mao and David's favorite comic books will be scratching for kopeks from now on:

      https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/google-bans-two-websites-its-ad-platform-over-protest-articles-n1231176

      Delete
    9. As you are no doubt aware, FDR never allowed himself to be photographed in his wheelchair. He was able to walk down a ramp with effort. Most people had no idea he suffered from lingering effects of polio, until photos appeared in biographies written after his death.

      JFK similarly concealed his back problem.

      As a consequence of such deceptions, the tradition of providing the public with health information was created. That Trump ignores that tradition and has been unable to appear healthy in videos suggests that he has more to hide with respect to his health than he does by withholding his taxes, and his failure to release his taxes covers up a great deal of financial finagling.

      Delete
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  3. "We were also struck by the way the happy talk on liberal cable ignores this potential disaster."

    Those states won't be flipped by cable liberals but by the people on the ground who get out the vote. Even in GA with the long lines, turnout was greater than in 2018 and 2016.

    Unless Republicans pull another Comey-type stunt, Trump is toast.

    Somerby can look for scenarios where Trump could possibly win, but his point essentially is that liberals are not predicting a Trump victory. Who does that? Predicting that your party's candidate will lose tends to dampen participate and decreases GOTV efforts as voters decide their votes won't matter.

    In this manner, Somerby engages in voter suppression in the blue states, telling us that our votes there are wasted, not worth the effort of going to the polls, because only the Electoral College matters. Modellers at 538 blew it because of Comey, not because their predictions were messed up. They did figure in the meddling. Somerby wants to undercut them and undermine our faith in our own efforts, by pretending the 2016 was a normal election, when it was not. He has never acknowledged the illegal activities that allowed Trump to steal the last election. He blames Hillary and is now pretending that 538 was wrong (when its models were correct, if you subtract the impact of Comey on last-minute voters).

    What kind of liberal works so hard to undermine and suppress votes in his own party? Right, no liberal I know of. That's why I flatly do not believe that Somerby is a liberal. And if he is not liberal, what is he doing pretending to be one? Where does this doom and gloom prediction come from and what is its purpose? Since its effect is always to suppress votes, I have to assume that is Somerby's intention. Attacking liberal cable pundits just doesn't seem like the best way to generate enthusiasm on the left.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those states won't be flipped by cable liberals but by the people on the ground who get out the vote.

      GOTV has a marginal effect on turnout. For door-to-door, about +4% times the contact rate and <+1% for phone and mailers. So if your campaign talks to 1 in 4 people on its door-knocking efforts, door-to-door is no more effective than phone banks. Who’s going to answer the door to a stranger during a pandemic? (Go here And remember that if the other side is doing the same thing, the GOTV efforts will likely cancel each other out.

      Unless Republicans pull another Comey-type stunt, Trump is toast.

      Whaddayamean unless?

      Somerby can look for scenarios where Trump could possibly win, but his point essentially is that liberals are not predicting a Trump victory. Who does that?

      No, his point is that “liberal cable” outlets are predicting a Biden victory. Who does that? Presumably, someone who watches liberal cable. Try reading for comprehension.

      Predicting that your party's candidate will lose….

      Except that TDH doesn’t predict a Trump win. All his verbs are modal warnings. He says, “Yes, Virginia! Donald J. Trump could win re-election—if we have an election, that is!” Try reading for comprehension.

      In this manner, Somerby engages in voter suppression in the blue states, telling us that our votes there are wasted, not worth the effort of going to the polls, because only the Electoral College matters.

      First, a blog nobody reads can’t suppress voting anywhere. Second, the electoral college really is the only thing that matters.

      Modelers at 538 blew it because of Comey, not because their predictions were messed up.

      538 makes predictions based on poll aggregation. Their models are no better than the polls that underly those models. The problem with the polls was that they didn’t treat states individually when it came to demographic design. That’s mostly because state-only polling was (and is) sparse and has a wide margin of error.

      What kind of liberal works so hard to undermine and suppress votes in his own party? Right, no liberal I know of. That's why I flatly do not believe that Somerby is a liberal.

      But you’re an egregious ignoramus, who can’t read for comprehension, get the simplest facts straight, or employ sound logic. Why would anyone take seriously anything you say about another person’s political convictions?

      Here, two can play at this game: What kind of liberal works so hard to ignore warnings that the election may be close and therefore encourages her own party to be complacent?

      Where does this doom and gloom prediction come from and what is its purpose?

      It’s not a prediction; it’s a warning. It comes from 2016. It’s purpose is to dispel dangerous happy talk.

      Since its effect is always to suppress votes,

      Evidence for that?

      I have to assume….

      You always have to assume, since you never consider evidence.

      that is Somerby's intention.

      Try addressing the claim and not the claimant.

      Attacking liberal cable pundits just doesn't seem like the best way to generate enthusiasm on the left.

      But maybe it’s a way not to generate complacency on the left.

      Delete
    2. @deadrat
      Except that no one on the left is complacent. That is a fiction. And note how you slip from “liberal cable” to “the left” in a single comment.

      Delete
    3. No one? And you know this how? And note how I'm saying maybe.

      And what "slip"? If liberal cable pundits have any influence, I suspect it will be "on the left."

      Delete
  4. "if we have an election, that is!"

    Who says stuff like this?

    Trump is most likely going to be defeated in a landslide.

    Suggesting otherwise manifests extreme lack of faith in our democratic system. It may be chic to express cynicism about that, but our elections are the heart of our nation. If Somerby feels this way, he might as well move to someplace he can believe in -- such as Russia -- and he can take his pear tree with him.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who says stuff like this? Some people I talk to. Google the phrase "Can Trump postpone the election?" I get 19.4M hits.

      Democratic systems are fragile. Read any Sinclair Lewis?

      I didn't think so. Start with It Can't Happen Here.

      Delete
    2. Sinclair Lewis writes fiction.

      Delete
    3. Thank you, Capt. Obvious Anonymous @9:18A. The question is not whether Trump can or will postpone the election. The question is whether people other than those who should move to Russia are talking about whether Trump can or will postpone the election.

      Delete
  5. Google "October 2016 Clinton Trump poll" if you want to know what's going to happen in November.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Google "Russian troll" if you want to know where 3:51 is coming from.

      Delete
  6. “According to 538, Biden's running ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but in Wisconsin, he and Donald J. Trump are stone-cold neck and neck.”

    Actually, Biden is way ahead in both Michigan and Wisconsin. It is Pennsylvania where Biden and Trump are neck and neck.

    “If Trump hangs on to just one of those states, Biden would have to flip some other state to win. Certainly, he could do that—but at 538, there is no other battleground/swing state where a Biden win seems certain.”

    Biden is up 6.2 in Wisconsin, and 7.6 in Michigan. Biden leads trump by 2.5 in Florida, and 3.3 in Arizona. Those two states are clearly in play.
    Meanwhile, the largest swing state lead Trump could eke out is in Texas, where he barely leads by 1.5. According to these polls, there is not a single swing state where a Trump victory is likely, let alone certain. Of course, polls do not mean a victory is certain in any case.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Here’s a slightly snarky take:

    It’s too bad more liberals don’t read the Howler. If they did, they would know about this thing called the “Electoral College.” Also, they would understand that being shown current polling on TV causes them to become complacent and, I dunno, forget to vote, and sip lattes instead of voting and doing GOTV efforts. They could also learn from Somerby that their candidate is awful. Certainly, no liberal was even remotely hesitant to support Biden initially, so his failings would be news to them!

    And certainly, recent elections during the pandemic likely offer some clue as to voter motivation, but damned if anyone can puzzle that one out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Leroy, it's too bad you, Leroy, joined the anonymi, right Leroy?

      Delete
  8. Replies
    1. Who's Carr plagiarizing this week?

      Delete
  9. BTW can someone explain Bob's comment "a two-fisted drinker like Donald J. Trump"? Trump neither drinks nor smokes. I guess Bob's comment is meant as some sort of joke, but I don't get it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump uses two hands to drink a glass of water, when a person with normal-sized adult hands only needs one.

      Delete
    2. Then there's ham-fisted: "But even as our tribal sachems pleasure us with this news, ...."

      Delete
    3. Trump isn’t graceful or athletic. If you danced with him you’d have to keep an eye on his feet.

      If someone threw a shoe at him he’d never manage the awesomely adept duck that Pres. Bush pulled off.

      Delete
    4. "Trump isn’t graceful or athletic."

      Or smart. Or a good businessman.

      Delete
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  12. "but in Wisconsin, he and Donald J. Trump are stone-cold neck and neck."

    This statement is not accurate.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/

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