Coronavirus deaths this month!

MONDAY, JUNE 15, 2020

In theory, information is good:
In theory, information is good.

With that in mind, we extend a discussion from last week with some information about coronavirus deaths this month.

On a national basis, daily deaths continue to drop. That doesn't mean they won't go back up—but according to the Washington Post, these are the most recent numbers:
Coronavirus deaths, nationwide
June 8: 498
June 9: 959
June 10: 843
June 11: 897
June 12: 758
June 13: 626
June 14: 395

Current seven-day average:
710.9
The current seven-day average stands at 710.9. That represents an ongoing improvement. For example:

The seven-day average at the end of May was 925.6 (May 25-31). The seven-day average at the start of June was 803.4 (June 1-7).

These national numbers are dropping. That doesn't mean they won't go up again. Then again, maybe they won't.

At this point, have we had "the worst epidemic in the world?" At this point, we certainly have—if you refuse, forget, or simply don't want to adjust for size of population.

If you do adjust, some of the numbers look like this. We're using Kevin Drum's numbers:
Coronavirus deaths per million, as of June 14
United Kingdom: 633
Italy: 572
France: 439
United States: 352
Does it look like we've had it worse than everyone else?

At some point, we may surpass everyone else, but we haven't gotten there yet. Meanwhile, according to Worldometer data, Spain isn't far behind the U.K., and Belgium still has the worst death figure (834 per million).

In theory, information is good. None of these statistics are perfect, but there's more information where that came from, especially if you don't turn to cable!

You should always insist on reasonable data when you visit the data store. Also, you should assume that everything you read or hear is quite probably wrong.

15 comments:

  1. "...and Belgium still has the worst death figure (834 per million)."

    Dear Bob,
    for a famous stickler for comparing apples with apples, I'm surprised you have no problem mentioning Belgium together with the US of A.

    Wouldn't it make more sense to compare
    Belgium: 834 per million, with
    New York: 1,589 per million.

    Okay, dear Bob?

    ReplyDelete
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  2. “The current seven-day average stands at 710.9”

    But then Somerby compares overall death rates in the US with the UK, Italy, and France.

    To be consistent, wouldn’t you want to compare seven-day averages?

    That shows Italy and France with much lower numbers than the US.

    Of the three, only the UK has a rolling 7-day average that approximates that of the US.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The seven-day average is for the nation as a whole. It is decreasing because deaths in hot spots such as NY have greatly decreased. That obscures the fact that deaths are increasing across the Sunbelt, where AZ is experiencing severe strain on its health care resources. This is not the time to relax -- and that is the point of looking at stats -- to decide how to behave, not to play foolish games about which nation is doing best or worst by some cherry-picked metric.

    ReplyDelete

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  5. Your article is very informative. It's a welcome change from other supposed informational content. Your points are unique and original in my opinion. I agree with many of your points.


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  6. An interesting article on the Howler a couple of days later refers to the need to give the "whole truth." Inspired but that column, here is minor edit to this column:

    Coronavirus deaths per million, as of June 14
    United Kingdom: 633
    Italy: 572
    France: 439
    United States: 352
    About 180 other countries: < 352

    Does it look like we've had it worse than everyone else? Yes it does, or at least worst that almost everyone else.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. I'm sure you'll be happy to see this:
      WASHINGTON D.C. - U.S Rep. Steve Scalise sent out a Tweet saying, "Just sent letters to the Democrat governors of NY, NJ, CA, PA, and MI demanding they explain why they ignored protocols and forced COVID-19 patients into nursing homes."

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    2. Ooooh. A letter. Is that more legally binding then the Congressional subpoenas that Republicans usually shrug off?

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  7. I had not seen those numbers before. How ever cases are going up in some places like Arizona. And we have seen all these protesters marching. It looks like many of them were wearing masks. So it will be interesting to see if the death rates spike.

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