TUESDAY, JULY 21, 2020
Let's take a look at the record: Yesterday, the New York Times finally reported that daily deaths from the coronavirus are in fact on the rise nationwide.
On that basis, Slate also announced the change.
In fact, nationwide deaths have probably been on the rise since the start of the month, though the three- to four-day July 4 weekend created reporting anomalies that continued to skew 7-day averages right into last week.
Where do daily deaths currently stand? For the Washington Post's data, just click here. In a nutshell, the story is this:
For a couple of weeks in April, nationwide deaths were averaging over 2000 per day. Then, a fairly rapid decline began.
By the end of May, the average number of daily deaths had dropped to just over 900. The average continued to drop, bottoming out right around 540 before the July 4 weekend.
With yesterday's data, the 7-day rolling average is back up to 763.0 deaths per day nationwide. We're nowhere near where we were back in April, but the rise has been fairly substantial just in the past few weeks.
The July 4 weekend created reporting anomalies. By the look of things, artificially low numbers were recorded through July 6, with artificially high numbers recorded for several days thereafter. Those artificially inflated numbers continued to skew 7-day averages into the following week.
That statistical bump now lies in the past. The picture looks like this:
For the last week in June, the average number of daily deaths stood at 538.7 (June 24-June 30).
At present, the number stands at 763.0 (July 14-20). As such, we're looking at a substantial increase in daily deaths just in the past three weeks.
Luckily, two things work in our favor:
First, the commander will be holding a task force briefing later this afternoon. By that time, he will almost surely have figured this whole thing out.
The other saving grace is this—we have the world's lowest mortality rate! Based on a paper from Kayleigh and Birx, that's what the commander in chief continued to claim as he spoke with Chris Wallace on Sunday.
According to the genius Wallace, Johns Hopkins says that isn't correct. That was as far as Wallace took it. Viewers could choose who was right.