The end of a disastrous month!

MONDAY, AUGUST 3, 2020

The virus won big in July:
Here in the United States, the virus did extremely well in the month of July.

We just went back over the Washington Post's numbers from the last week in June (June 24 through June 30). According to the numbers the Post is currently showing, the average number of daily deaths, nationwide, was 518.7 during that week.

Presumably, no reporting anomalies from the July 4 weekend were yet affecting the data. As of that last week in June, daily deaths had come down a long way from their high point, in mid-April, of over 2000 deaths per day nationwide.

That was then, and this is August. Based on the Post's current numbers, this is where matters stood in the recently-concluded last week in July:
Daily deaths from coronavirus, nationwide
June 24-30: 518.7
July 25-July 31: 1108.4
Yes, those are the actual numbers. On a nationwide basis, daily deaths more than doubled during one month's time!

That strikes us as a remarkable increase. Almost as remarkable is the difficulty the upper-end press corps seem to have dealing with such basic statistics.

Consider this full-length news report from this morning's Post.
It's built upon the gloomy appearance by Deborah Birx on yesterday's State of the Union program.

How gloomy were Birx's various statements? In this early passage, the Post reporters included a gloomy-sounding prediction about possible total deaths from coronavirus by the end of the year:
HAWKINS AND IATA (8/3/20): Birx did not rule out an estimate from former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb that virus deaths could top 300,000 by the end of the year, saying “anything is possible.” Such an outcome would be far less likely, Birx said, if people practiced social distancing and avoided large gatherings.
That sounds extremely gloomy. But the Post reporters never managed to quantify the rate at which deaths have been increasing. Pitiably, the analysts tore their hair and cried when they hit this peculiar passage:
HAWKINS AND IATA: Birx’s remarks came as the country tallied 478 deaths Sunday, down slightly from the 566 fatalities reported on the same day last week. But some states—including Texas, which has been averaging nearly 300 deaths per day—had not reported their statistics as of Sunday evening, suggesting that the true number of new deaths was higher.
It makes almost zero sense to talk about the number of deaths on some particular day. We let the analysts gather themselves, then made them continue reading.

Before too long, the Post reporters were discussing the rise in seven-day averages of daily deaths nationwide! But they only did so for certain (unnamed) states and without using any numbers:
HAWKINS AND IATA: The stalled [budget] negotiations followed another week of grim signs for the country’s pandemic response. The seven-day average for new coronavirus-related deaths rose in nearly half of the states over the past week, pushing the national death toll past 150,000 and prompting health experts to warn that the trend is unlikely to reverse anytime soon.

Numerous states reported record daily fatalities in recent days, including California, which reported 219 on Saturday, according to tracking by The Washington Post. Florida reported a record 257 deaths on Friday, and seven-day averages for new deaths reached new highs in states across the South, the West and the Midwest.
Again with reports of deaths from particular days, and only in particular states! Meanwhile, the seven-day average for new coronavirus-related deaths rose in nearly half the states over the past week? If the seven-day average fell in all the other states, the result might have been a nationwide wash!

Nothing like that happened, of course. But at no point did the Post reporters attempt to quantify the nationwide increase in deaths over (let's say) the course of the past month. Instead, they gave us work like this:
HAWKINS AND IATA: Nationwide, the daily coronavirus death toll exceeded 1,000 for the sixth day in a row on Saturday, according to The Post’s data. The 1,198 new fatalities marked the most that officials have counted on a Saturday, when death reports tend to be lower than those tallied midweek, since May 9.

[...]

The increase in deaths nationwide has trailed a massive surge in coronavirus cases by several weeks, as health experts predicted when infections started trending upward in June.

[...]

“Overall, what this tells us is that now that deaths have started to increase, we can expect them to increase for several more weeks,” Ellie Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University, told The Post. “We cannot afford to pretend everything is fine and heading back to normal.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s most recent analysis of pandemic fatalities shows weekly reports of new deaths increasing over the next month, with 5,000 to 11,000 new deaths projected in the third week of August. The national death toll could climb to more than 168,000 by that time, with a high estimate of 182,000, according to the CDC’s review.
At one point, we were told that there has< been an "increase in deaths nationwide." We also received a few gloomy predictions, but we were never given a statistical account of how large the increase in nationwide deaths has been over some specified period of time.

Math is hard, Talking Barbie once said. At the top of the national press, the most elementary types of statistics routinely turn out to be harder.

We offer this as an anthropology lesson. "Man [sic] is the rational animal?" According to major anthropologists, this claim was always a delusion. We should learn to adjust our most basic assumptions, these despondent top experts all say.

On a nationwide basis, the death rate (more than) doubled in the course of a month! Which part of that do our upper-end news orgs find hard to understand?

39 comments:

  1. Spin spin spin
    Papa ooh mao mao

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The deaths are the fault of Cuomo and Cuomo only.

      Delete
    2. Cuomo is responsible for deaths in California? How did that happen? Did he visit there without his mask on?

      Delete
  2. Why does Somerby believe that he knows about the virus if he has such numbers? Knowing national figures tells you nothing whatsoever about what is happening in your state, much less your neighborhood. There are no practical consequences to this rumination. If the national death rate were dipping, you would still be a fool to abandon your mask. If you read that there are fewer hospitalizations, will you feel comforted even though your mother is still in the ICU?

    I believe this rigid, obsessive focus on numbers is an emotion-driven attempt to exert some control (through understanding) of a pandemic that is beyond all individual control. Such a feeling of control is illusory because this is still a situation that no one has a grip on. Meanwhile, Somerby's efforts seem pathetic and get in the way of accepting that our best course is to enact whatever individual virus prevention methods we can, until there is a vaccine (one that works).

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    1. Stupid comment.

      Delete
    2. Why does Somerby believe that he knows about the virus if he has such numbers?

      Clinically? No, the numbers tell you little about the medical aspects of COVID-19. The numbers tell you the overall state of the spread of the disease.

      Knowing national figures tells you nothing whatsoever about what is happening in your state, much less your neighborhood.

      They track the numbers by state, you know. In my state, they give the breakdown by county.

      There are no practical consequences to this rumination.

      Really? They tell me to keep to my quarantine.

      If the national death rate were dipping, you would still be a fool to abandon your mask.

      Of course. The death stats are a trailing indicator of infection.

      If you read that there are fewer hospitalizations, will you feel comforted even though your mother is still in the ICU?

      What could possibly comfort you when your mother is still in the ICU?

      I believe this rigid, obsessive focus on numbers is an emotion-driven attempt to exert some control (through understanding) of a pandemic that is beyond all individual control.

      Pandemics aren't amenable to individual control. This one is controllable by mass action, and the stats measure the efficacy of such action (or lack thereof).

      Such a feeling of control is illusory because this is still a situation that no one has a grip on.

      Countries all over the world have "a grip on" their local presentation of the pandemic. That the US doesn't is a testimony to our woeful leadership and the ignorance of a frighteningly large part of the electorate.

      Meanwhile, Somerby's efforts seem pathetic and get in the way of accepting that our best course is to enact whatever individual virus prevention methods we can, until there is a vaccine (one that works).

      You think that TDH is interfering with infection control?

      Talk about pathetic.

      Delete
    3. Deadrat, anyone can quibble the way you do. First, Somerby has never discussed any of the details of the virus itself. Second, he has never discussed anything about any state figures, except NYC back when that was the main hotspot. Since then, nothing at all. Third, countries around the world who thought they had a grip are now experiencing rises in infections.

      And yes, I think that TDH is interfering with infection control because he undermines the press attempt to describe the problem (while admitting that press reports are "technically accurate") thus presenting an appearance that the press is dealing in fake news, propagandizing (when they are actually just making slightly different choices about describing the virus), and giving support to Trump's complaint that everyone is exaggerating the extent of the pandemic in order to hurt his reelection chances.

      Somerby is encouraging resistance to infection control (wearing masks, staying home, listening to Fauci instead of quacks). He is working against the common good by making specious criticisms that undermine efforts to deal with the virus.

      You will no doubt say that I am misinterpreting a dispassionate attempt to find the right statistic to describe a narrowly defined aspect of change in national averages, to make it easier to compare the US with other countries (why are we doing that, again?).

      Delete
    4. Deadrat, anyone can quibble the way you do.

      Take that back. Nobody quibbles the way I do.

      First, Somerby has never discussed any of the details of the virus itself.

      I'm not sure what you're getting at. This isn't a medical blog. Why should TDH discuss "the virus itself"?

      Second, he has never discussed anything about any state figures, except NYC back when that was the main hotspot.

      OK, but I'm still missing your point. TDH is talking about the incompetence of journalists in discussing the national figures.

      Third, countries around the world who thought they had a grip are now experiencing rises in infections.

      According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins, some are and some aren't. What's your point? You said that no one had a grip on the situation. That's wrong.

      And yes, I think that TDH is interfering with infection control because he undermines the press attempt to describe the problem (while admitting that press reports are "technically accurate") thus presenting an appearance that the press is dealing in fake news, propagandizing (when they are actually just making slightly different choices about describing the virus), and giving support to Trump's complaint that everyone is exaggerating the extent of the pandemic in order to hurt his reelection chances.

      Sorry, but I couldn't find a good way to condense your quote. The first sentence of this blog entry is, "The virus won big in July." How can anyone with any sense claim that this gives support to Trump? And how can a blog nobody reads interfere with anything?

      Somerby is encouraging resistance to infection control (wearing masks, staying home, listening to Fauci instead of quacks).

      Quote him about not wearing masks. I doubt you can do it.

      He is working against the common good by making specious criticisms that undermine efforts to deal with the virus.

      Could you provide some evidence for that? Something, say, that shows this blog has actually undermined efforts to deal with the virus. Maybe something that compares to the disaster that is our testing program. Remember that claims aren't evidence.

      You will no doubt say that I am misinterpreting a dispassionate attempt to find the right statistic to describe a narrowly defined aspect of change in national averages, to make it easier to compare the US with other countries (why are we doing that, again?).

      No doubt? I have no idea how "dispassionate" the blog entry is. I'm interested in how accurate the criticism is. I don't think TDH's complaints are that weighty. And he seems to miss the idea that the increase in deaths is an unsurprising consequence of the increase in cases reported from two weeks ago. It's like being surprised about flash flooding downstream when you've been informed about heavy rains upstream.

      And we compare the US with other countries to learn how we've failed where others have succeeded.

      Delete
  3. "Math is hard, Talking Barbie once said. At the top of the national press, the most elementary types of statistics routinely turn out to be harder."

    I find it offensive when Somerby quotes that retracted Barbie phrase about math. Girls can do math just fine and that is why the doll with that phrase was quickly taken off the market. Somerby has done this at least twice now, as if it comforts him to think that girls do worse at math than he does, and female journalists are the worst of all.

    Nitpicking journalists doesn't demonstrate proficiency at statistics. Understanding what the numbers mean does that. Somerby is about as clueless as you can get, if he thinks that any of these numbers have any personal relevance to anyone on this planet except those who keep such records for planning and management purposes (as if there were any national covid plan to be managed).

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    Replies
    1. I find it offensive when Somerby quotes that retracted Barbie phrase about math.

      Of course you do. That's because taking offense is what you do. Likely related fact : offense is easy and understanding is hard.

      Try treating the comment as ironic. It might bring your blood pressure down.

      Girls can do math just fine and that is why the doll with that phrase was quickly taken off the market.

      Sadly, no. While it's certainly true that you can find persons with two X chromosomes whose mathematical talent exceeds 99% of those with one X chromosome and one Y, there's a long-standing and marked "gender gap" on average in the measured performance in mathematics between the sexes.

      Somerby has done this at least twice now, as if it comforts him to think that girls do worse at math than he does, and female journalists are the worst of all.

      "As if" you knew what "comforts" TDH. Isn't it rather what satisfies your itch to complain?

      Somerby is about as clueless as you can get, if he thinks that any of these numbers have any personal relevance to anyone on this planet except those who keep such records for planning and management purposes....

      Is this the "girls'" view? Because while COVID-2 presents novel clinical problems, it spreads in the predictable ways of pandemics, ways that have been understood for almost a century. Admittedly the math is hard -- it involves a system of differential equations, but the numbers tell the informed about the threat of he pandemic nationwide and locally.

      Ask one of the boys to explain it to you. TDH suggests that you don't ask a journalist though.

      Delete
    2. You think you know something about that gender gap, but you don't:

      1. It has nothing to do with XY or XX chromosomes, any more than any other complex behavior does.
      2. It has everything to do with socialization and early childhood experiences, hence the large number of XYs who can't do math either.
      3. Women are systematically excluded from math studies during and after high school.
      4. Women excel at math and do better than boys in the earlier grades.
      5. There is evidence that some of the psychological studies producing gender differences result because women translate into verbal representation instead of using spatial representation, which takes longer and produces RT differences. If you constrain them from doing that (via instructions), the results are the same for both sexes.
      6. Immersion in a culture that tells you that you cannot do something well, has a measurable impact on performance (see Steele's stereotype threat expts).

      But you are simply repeating what you've heard in the pseudoscience you take for psychology, so your understanding is superficial and you confuse the stuff that psychobiologists put out to legitimize male superiority with actual science.

      I can assume that what Somerby chooses to do is what comforts him, makes him feel good, gives him pleasure -- people and all organisms seek pleasure and avoid pain. That is how all living organisms operate.

      Covid does not spread in predictable ways and it does have some unique (or less frequently observed) features. One is that it spreads via asymptomatic carriers. Another is that having it may not confer immunity. But you seem to be pretending that Somerby has ever discussed any of that stuff. He hasn't. He only focuses on adjusting totals by population or time to get rates of various types.

      You think you're going to snow me by talking about differential equations? Dream on. And why are you talking about Covid-2 when our virus at hand is Covid-19?

      Delete
    3. deadrat apparently thinks the virus is called Covid-2. It is not. It is called SARS-CoV-2, where “CoV” stands for “Coronavirus.” The disease caused by the virus is called Covid-19. deadrat must have been poring over all those differential equations and gotten confused, or else he is ignorant about this.

      Delete
    4. You think you know something about that gender gap, but you don't: 1. It has nothing to do with XY or XX chromosomes....

      Quit telling me what I know and don't know. If you can't read for comprehension, then ask. In fact, we're in violent agreement. I don't think math talent can be chromosomally detected, so I don't even know how'd you test for sex-linked mathematical ability. In all likelihood, social factors, including STEM-group hostility, account for the gender gap, although testing for that isn't easy either. That said, the breezy assertion that "girls can do math just fine" doesn't comport with what actually obtains, but perhaps I should have said, "maybe they can, but they don't."

      you confuse the stuff that psychobiologists put out to legitimize male superiority with actual science.

      Stop telling me what confuses me and what doesn't. I think psychobiology and evolutionary psychology are junk science. I'm just looking at the numbers in my typical XY-chromosomal way.

      I can assume that what Somerby chooses to do is what comforts him....

      Of course you can assume what you want. Just like you assumed that I think math is a sex-lined trait. What you can't do is make reliably-correct assumptions. TDH hasn't written about his feelings on the gender gap in mathematics, and even if he did, I might not be sure if the gap's existence "comforts" him. I know what TDH writes, and he seems pretty tetchy to me about most of it. But unlike you, I don't have any insight into his interiority, so I remain agnostic on the subject.

      Covid does not spread in predictable ways....

      Er, no. Covid spreads in the same predictable ways that other communicable diseases do.

      You think you're going to snow me by talking about differential equations?

      How would I have any idea about your familiarity with DE? Your unnecessary protestation makes you seem a little touchy to me, but this medium isn't amenable to reliable judgents on such matters.

      And why are you talking about Covid-2 when our virus at hand is Covid-19?

      This is an example of the abyssal ignorance I have to confront on this blog's comment section. It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it. Hmm. Come to think of it, actually nobody has to do it, but never mind.

      COVID-2 is the virus. COVID-19 is the disease that virus causes. It's the virus that spreads.

      Delete
    5. Oh, dear. I abbreviated the virus name wrong. I stand corrected.

      Delete
    6. Girls are bad at math but they don't need math to cook and clean and raise babies.

      Delete
    7. @deadrat
      When you say things like “Covid does not spread in predictable ways” you are doing more than just getting the name of the virus wrong. Covid is the disease caused by the virus (the d stands for “disease.”) Epidemiologsts discuss the spread of the virus, not the disease caused by it. Are you sure you aren’t an anonymous ignoramus masquerading as “deadrat?”

      Delete
    8. My abbreviations are wrong. I stand corrected. The "2" designates the virums ([SARS-]CoV-2); the "19" designates the disease (CoVID-19).

      "It's the virus that spreads."

      Now who wrote that?

      Oh, yeah. I did, @6:44P.

      And I'm not the one who says the virus does not spread in predictable ways.

      Delete
    9. The way SARS-CoV-2 spreads has not been predictable. Epidemiologists think they have a firmer understanding of it now, but there has not been enough testing on how it spreads.

      Delete
    10. We may be talking about different things. Perhaps you mean that the physical mechanism of infection isn't well known. From what I've read, there seems little doubt that the virus is infectious because it's airborne (in the medical sense). Perhaps you have better evidence than I. If so, pass it along.

      When I say "predictable," I mean that regardless of the mechanism, we can treat the virus as an infectious agent, parameterize its characteristics, and make reasonably-predictive models of its spread.

      Delete
  4. Don't you think, dear Bob, that this could be a case of garbage in, garbage out?

    Medical mafia is incentivised to report cases as COVID19, and liberal-cult medical bureaucrats are more than happy to oblige. And so they count road accident deaths (and shit like that) as COVID19. At least compare it to data on excess deaths, eh?

    Of course they are happy to feed your morbid curiosity, dear Bob, but it could be all (or mostly) bullshit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh Mao Mao

      Why are you letting me down.

      Delete
    2. ma0 ma0 * ,!, ,!,

      Delete
  5. "Liberal cult medical bureaucrats"

    I salute you my sniveling, pathetic, insane comrade!

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  6. The 7-day average of new cases has been trending down for a week. The 7-day average deaths began trending down today.

    If these trends continue, early November will see covid-19 substantially defeated. As more businesses open, the economy will expand rapidly. Not to mention that the US is a peace.

    Health, Peace and Prosperity should produce a landslide victory for the President.

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    Replies
    1. Telling Trump voters that Trump has been very, very good at providing black people with benefits paid for by their tax dollars, should produce a landslide victory (shutout maybe?) for Biden.

      Delete
  7. Daily deaths nationwide are only slightly higher than Andrew Cuomo's killings in NYC each day (over 900) for a month during peak infection.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not to mention all the non-COVID19 deaths resulted in Andrew the Demigod's ban on resuscitation.
      https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/ny-issues-do-not-resuscitate-guideline-for-cardiac-patients/

      Delete
    2. Мао отсасывает дальнобойщикам на остановках

      Delete
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