Jake Tapper does it again!

FRIDAY, JANUARY 8, 2021

The culture of accurate statement: Jake Tapper has done it again. Yesterday, late in the four o'clock hour, he excitingly told viewers this:

TAPPER (1/7/21): Our thanks to CNN's Elle Reeve, with that firsthand look at the assault perpetrated by the MAGA terrorists on the heart of American democracy. As you heard, many of those that stormed the Capitol did so motivated by all kinds of false beliefs, including conspiracy theories. Yet another considerable challenge facing America in the days, weeks, months and years ahead.

And let us not forget, the horror that unfolded yesterday took place on one of the darkest days of the pandemic. The U.S. now nearing a daily average of 4,000 dead Americans every day. Hospitals across the country are overrun, and despite the ones promising silver lining of this vaccine, distribution issues continue to plague the entire nation, and they are proving that this pandemic is far from over, as CNN's Erica Hill reports.

Jake assailed the terrorists' "false beliefs," then authored one of his own.

"The U.S. [is] now nearing a daily average of 4,000 dead Americans every day," he said, referring to Covid deaths. But as Tapper made this gloomy statement, the Washington Post and the New York Times were reporting these seven-day averages:

Covid deaths per day, 7-day rolling average, through January 6:
The New York Times: 2,687
The Washington Post: 2,678

There's no perfect measure of daily deaths. But there's also no sign that the United States is experiencing anything like four thousand Covid deaths per day—at least, not at this point.

Tapper just won't stop doing this. In fact, was the United States really "nearing a daily average of 4,000 dead Americans every day" as the CNN tyro spoke?

Below, you see daily reported deaths as tabulated by the Washington Post for the previous eight days as Tapper spoke. We'll let you be the judge of Tapper's exciting statement:

Reported Covid deaths each day:
December 30: 3,862
December 31: 3,321
January 1: 2,620
January 2: 2,353
January 3: 1,453
January 4: 1,609
January 5: 3,478
January 6: 3,915

On January 6, for that one day, the Post did list almost four thousand reported deaths. But two and three days earlier, the number of reported deaths had been roughly 1,500 each day.

We've explained this bone-simple point about a million times. Anyone who has ever looked at any Covid data set will recognize this pattern, in which reported deaths drop over the weekend, with the reporting backlog made up on subsequent weekdays. 

(Holiday weekends tend to exaggerate the reporting delays.)

Has Tapper ever looked at any data set? If so, he's seen this familiar pattern. But as he spoke yesterday afternoon, there was exactly zero reason to make his exciting claim.

As Tapper spoke, the seven-day average was well under three thousand. He bumped it up almost to four. In fairness, though, there's a reason for this type of performance:

Within our multimillionaire press corps, there is amazingly little allegiance to the culture of accurate statement. When it comes to accurate statement, these titans simply don't care.

The children work from Storyline, the more exciting the better. This is the way we humans work. According to major anthropologists, this is the way we are.

Too perfect! Jake savaged the terrorists' false beliefs, then advanced one of his own! 

This is what we humans are like, according to major top experts. For this reason, long ago, we called it The Daily Howler.


40 comments:

  1. Tapper's statement is a prediction. It seems entirely reasonable and unfortunately will be proven accurate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
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  2. Somerby has been complaining because single-day reports may be distorted by holidays. Then he takes a week in which many offices shut down (between Christmas and New Year's), with a consequent lab in reporting for the first days in January, and pretends that 7-day average is accurate.

    Somerby says: "On January 6, for that one day, the Post did list almost four thousand reported deaths. But two and three days earlier, the number of reported deaths had been roughly 1,500 each day."

    Those lower numbers are the inaccurate ones. Today, the NY Times reported approximately 4100 deaths, a new high.

    There is no sign that the pandemic is slowing or abating. The vaccine rollout has been less than anticipated and is not making a dent in death totals. When you reason about statistics, you place your numbers in the larger context of what is known about a situation. And we all know that people are doing worse, not better, at wearing masks and social distancing. Los Angeles, by itself, is one of the worst-hit places in the nation, as well as one of the most populous. There is no reason to believe these numbers are lower than Tapper's prediction.

    What is Somerby's goal in minimizing covid deaths? It clearly isn't about accuracy, because he makes the same mistake he criticizes in others, when it suits him to complain about a high statistic. The conclusion that any sane person must draw about covid, is that it is now getting worse before it can get better due to vaccine availability.

    Somerby is not even technically accurate in today's essay. And he does no one any good by making it appear that this virus is going away. It is not.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "As Tapper spoke, the seven-day average was well under three thousand. He bumped it up almost to four."

    Before Christmas, the daily highs were increasing and were in the high 3000s. Tapper omitted the artificially low numbers for the holidays and made the assumption that deaths were still likely to be increasing. That is the basis for his prediction, and he is more correct than Somerby, who wants to include those artificially low numbers when official reporting was delayed due to holiday closures. Somerby is wrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's why you use a moving average silly girl. It smooths out the artificially low numbers. No need for predictions.

      Delete
    2. You have just written a bunch of gibberish.

      Delete
    3. I suspect that in order to pay the multimillionaire on air talent, the rest of the staff on these channels are making peanuts or are 19 y/o interns

      Delete
  4. Here are the number of reported deaths from Worldometers:

    1/5: 3,769
    1/6: 4,100
    1/7: 4,207

    From CDC:
    1/5: 3,541
    1/6: 3,844
    (No data available yet for 1/7)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Isn't that why one looks at a 7 day average? Would you report back the numbers from 1/9, 1/10 and 1/11?

      Delete
    2. No, I will not do your work for you. I will, however, point out that, looking at the CDC data, outside of 4/15/2020, which was a reporting anomaly, the number of reported deaths began to exceed 3000 for the first time on 12/11/2020. The first time the number of reported deaths exceeded 3000 two days in a row was 12/16/2020. The first time the number of reported deaths exceeded 3000 three days in a row was 12/29/2020 (a Tuesday). The latest trend of above 3000 started on Tuesday of this week, with worldometers showing over 4000 on 1/6.

      Again, outside of 4/15/2020, which was an anomaly, the 1/6/2021 total of 3,844 was a record number of daily reported deaths.

      You can decide if you think Tapper is correctly predicting the numbers or not.

      Delete
    3. One would use the 7 day average as the best predictor if you didn't know anything about a situation already. When you know already that you are in a pandemic and that the curve has been steadily increasing, and also know that holidays interfere with reporting, then the 7 day average over a holiday period is no longer the best predictor. The best predictor of the future is the latest day's tally. This is true because it is the day that is least affected by holiday office closures and reporting of backlogged deaths, and because you already know that you are in a pandemic in which containment efforts have been ineffective. The latest date represents the most accurate snapshot of the situation under those circumstances and is the best predictor of tomorrow. It may not be the best predictor of next week. For that, you might want to go back to using a rolling 7-day average, if you suspect that the pandemic curve might be changing, either slowing its increase or decreasing.

      Notice how the choice of a statistics depends on your purposes for estimating and also on your other knowledge of the situation, external to the stat itself. If you don't take other things into consideration, you are behaving like a trained monkey, not a data analyst.

      Delete
    4. We're not talking about predictions. We are talking about making accurate statements about the daily average of 4,000 dead Americans every day.

      "The latest trend of above 3000 started on Tuesday of this week, with worldometers showing over 4000 on 1/6."

      This week Worldometers also showed one day deaths of only 1,398. That's why you average it out silly!

      Delete
    5. If you want to know the single number that best describes what happened across a group of days, then use the average. If you want to predict what the deaths will be tomorrow, there is some dispute about what statistic to use, which will give the most accurate prediction.

      You do not need statistics to describe deaths. You just count how many there were on a given day and use that number. Statistics become important when you are trying to generalize or predict.

      Somerby's claims about "accuracy" are ridiculous. The only accurate number is the one that counts how many there are. All the other stats are used to deal with uncertainty. You don't need stats (means, averages) if you aren't predicting anything.

      Delete
    6. Things Tapper did not say.
      The daily average was currently at 4000.

      Somersby has his oafish thumb on the scale.

      Tappers statement is most likely accurate and will be borne out over the following week.

      Fuck Trump and his FASCIST FANS

      Delete
    7. Using numbers to talk about trends makes no sense. Use a graph and then you can immediately see whether deaths are increasing or decreasing or fluctuating.

      Averaging a bad piece of data (an inaccurate measurement) just camouflages the error and introduces noise. It is better to correct the data if you can. If you average across bad observations or measurements, you will get a misleading number, not a more reliable one. The reason for averaging is to produce a number that describes the central tendency of a group of observations, or to make predictions about what value any observation pulled at random from a group is likely to be. Means are used for making comparison between groups of data or generalizing (the average 10 year old boy is 4'6" tall). Calculating the mean doesn't make any of your data "more accurate."

      Somerby doesn't know what he is talking about.

      Delete
    8. Distributions of numbers have properties. The statistics you can use on them depend on those underlying properties. You compute a rolling average to reduce variability and turn an unknown distribution into a normal one (the distribution of the rolling averages will be normal whereas the deaths themselves may not be).

      Somerby's idea that you use the average to avoid worrying about lags in reporting is not why you do this. It is better to know about those lags if you are trying to figure out what is going on during a pandemic.

      Delete
    9. Totally makes sense. Based on your information, you can see the U.S. is nearing a daily average of 4,000 dead Americans every day.

      Delete
    10. Tapper said the daily average of US deaths was nearing 4,000. The U.S. has only had over 4,000 deaths twice. 6 days ago, it had under 1,400 deaths. The only accurate number is averages. All the other stats count how many there are and are used to deal with uncertainty about the most accurate prediction. The measurement that counts is how many known and unknown distributions there are. You don't need a group of observations to make predictions about what value (stats) are pulled at random if you are trying to predict what is going on during a pandemic a pandemic in which containment efforts have been the most accurate snapshot of the situation under the circumstances.

      Delete
    11. Like I said, gibberish. Colorless green ideas sleep furiously.

      Delete
    12. The most important thing to remember is that the US has had 2 days out of the last 180 days with over deaths 4,000 deaths, therefore, Tapper is correct to say the U.S. is nearing a daily average of 4,000 dead Americans every day.

      Delete
    13. "Tapper's statement is most likely accurate and will be borne out over the following week."

      The 7 day moving average won't be 4k/day by next week. It won't be long though. Maybe by the end of the month.

      Tapper's statement is stupid. We have only had 3 days with over 4k deaths/day. We are not near 4k a day unless you mean appx a month away. 3k/day would have been more accurate for him to say. We passed that yesterday for the first time.

      Delete
    14. Here are the latest number of reported deaths from Worldometers:

      1/9: 3,251
      1/10: 1,862
      1/11: 1,964

      Nowhere near 4k a day.

      Delete
  5. Looking back at Somerby's previous complaints, not one of them was vindicated by the subsequent trend in deaths.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "Too perfect! Jake savaged the terrorists' false beliefs, then advanced one of his own!"

    Somerby italicized the word terrorist, implying that it was an unusual use of the word. The people who stormed the Capitol building fit the meaning of the word terrorist in every sense of the word.

    Webster's definition: "a person who uses unlawful violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims."

    Unlawful violence? Check
    Intimidation? Check
    Civilians? Check (members of Congress are civilians)
    Pursuit of political aims? Check

    These are domestic terrorists. Because of their violence, 5 people died (2 directly, 3 indirectly). There were over 50 injuries and 13 hospitalizations (last count I saw). There was physical damage to the Capitol building, including the chambers where the House and Senate deliberate and several offices were vandalized. Bombs were planted in the RNC and DNC Headquarters, and people were arrested carrying improvised explosive devices (pipe bombs, molotov cocktails). Rioters were armed and fired shots within the Capitol building (heard on cell phones and reported by those under siege).

    The intent was to intimidate Pence and other members of congress into rejecting the electoral college votes in order to overturn the election results (favoring Biden) and keep Trump in office -- a clearly political goal.

    We need to call this what it is. Somerby doesn't want to do that. Why? Domestic terrorism is an unacceptable response to an election result. Remember Somerby was the one who didn't want to impeach Trump because it would override the will of the voters. Where is his concern for the voters now? Gone with the wind, no doubt.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Somerby most likely went to the rally and march, but didn't enter the building. He now wants to absolve himself and others of guilt, implying that they were bystanders and not participants in what was a planned insurrection from day one.

    The intent of the marchers is being examined by investigating Trump's words, DT Jr's words, Giuliani's words -- all instructions to the crowd, and the planning on social media by those who came armed and dangerous and eager for confrontation.

    This is not innocent protesting and it is illegal, not free speech. The damage and assault committed by those who broke into the Capitol building are not necessarily distinct from the events that preceded it. This can be seen as an attempted insurrection and coup, not a protest, and the planning, goals, intent and instructions will help determine how it is viewed, not just the outcome.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I dont understand.
    They were white Christians not Muslims.
    How could they be terrorists

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  10. “Jake assailed the terrorists' "false beliefs," then authored one of his own.”

    Jake wasn’t expressing a belief. It was a reasonable prediction, based on existing trends.

    Somerby is very bad at trying to make some spurious “both sides” comparison. Insurrectionists, egged on by the President, either believing Trump was cheated out of his re-election or determined to overthrow the election in any case, break down the doors to the Capitol and could have kidnapped or killed members of Congress, including VP Pence, versus ... Jake Tapper quite reasonably predicts 4000 Covid deaths per day. Yeah. Really analogous.

    Somerby, amazingly, keeps reaching new lows of debasement.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Oh my god! In an equivalent error, Jake Tapper miscounted deaths (says an idiot) compared in the same sentence to violent terrorists spewing lies.

    ReplyDelete
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  16. This testimony is worth sharing to the world. I am here to tell the world of the good works of  Dr BALBOSA. My name is Olivia Bolton am from the UK.. My man left me and my kids for another older woman. It was not so easy for me.. I love my husband so much and I did not lose hope and I kept praying and God finally answered my prayers...i searched online for a spell caster to help me unite me and my lover back forever and i saw so many testimonies of  how DR BALBOSA has helped so many people online and i decided to give him a trial … I contacted him and explained to him. He told me not to worry that he will bring back my man within 24 hours. He consulted his powers and assured me not to worry . He did his work and cast the spell and to my greatest surprise, my husband came back the same day begging and crying  just as  Dr BALBOSA said. He begged me for forgiveness and he promised never to leave me for any reason. We are happy and we live together as one. Contact Dr BALBOSA now on: balbosasolutionhome@gmail.com and you can also contact him on WHATSAPP/CALLS +2347048047728... don't lose hope have a lovely day 

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  17. My husband and I have been having lots of problems living together, he never gives me attention or makes me happy because he has fallen in love with another woman outside our marriage. I tried my best to make sure that my husband leaves this woman but the more I talk to him about it the more he makes me feel sad and unhappy, My marriage started leading to divorce because he no longer gives me attention. I wanted to forget him but i love him and didn't want to lose him. We have been married for years and he is all I could call a true best friend and best in all, the man that handles my problems perfectly, the man that makes sacrifices for ,my happiness. I wanted him back in my life badly and I was so confused. My Friends told me to buy books about relationships, so I went online for relationship books while I came across a spell caster called Dr Emu. I read testimonies and reviews about him so I contacted him immediately, explained my problems to him. Same day , he casted a spell for me and assured me for 2 days that my husband will return to me and to my greatest surprise the third day my husband came knocking on my door and begged for forgiveness. I am so happy that my love is back again and not only that, we are about to get married again, he proposed. I wouldn't stop talking about him. Contact him today if you need his help via email: emutemple@gmail.com and you will see that your problem will be solved without any delay. Website: https://emutemple.wordpress.com/

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