Hugh Hewitt makes a ludicrous claim!

MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2020

On Meet the Press, no one noticed:
What kinds of crazy "facts" can a person hear at the very top of our news chain?

Consider the indignities visited on those who watched yesterday's Meet the Press. Hugh Hewitt was part of the pundit panel. Things quickly went sideways from there:
TODD (6/28/20): Hugh, how would you advise the president to turn this around? I mean, it does look like at this point they've made the decision the federal government isn't going to own the response [to the pandemic]. I mean, Secretary Azar kept bringing it back to the states, back to the states. I understand that's a federalism response, but it's not working.

HEWITT: Well, yesterday 500 Americans died, Chuck. And in Germany, 680 Germans died. The United States' death toll has dropped dramatically from May, when it was 2,700...
Hewitt storylined further from there. But good God! Just look at the numbers he cited!

Hewitt's current death count for the U.S. was reasonably accurate. According to the Washington Post's numbers, 546 deaths from coronavirus were recorded on Saturday, June 27.

That death count was reasonably accurate—but how about the crazy number he cited for Germany? "In Germany, 680 Germans died?"

Obviously, that number was crazily wrong. But nobody said a freaking thing about Hewitt's ridiculous statement—not Chuck Todd and not his other two pundit guests.

How crazy was Hewitt's number? Anyone who knows anything about this topic knows that Germany has stifled the coronavirus to a state of semi-extinction.

According to the WorldOMeter site, daily deaths in Germany have been averaging maybe 10 per day. The notion that Germany had suddenly pulled a 680 made no earthly sense.

(In population, Germany is roughly one-fourth our size.)

Still, the claim emerged from Hewitt's mouth. Later that day, in a tweet, he explained:
HEWITT (6/28/20): I was wrong on @MeetThePress this morning. Germany had 680+ new cases yesterday not deaths. My error entirely not @NBCNews
Hewitt had deaths mixed up with cases! That's why he blurted that crazy number, a number suggesting that things aren't nearly as bad as the Trump-haters might have you think.

That said:

A journalist has to know nothing at all to think that Germany could have pulled a 680. We think of something NAME WITHHELD said to us, two decades ago, concerning the total lack of preparation displayed by many journalist guests on C-Span's Washington Journal.

(No, it wasn't Mortman.)

You have to know nothing at all to make a statement like Hewitt's. That said, no one corrected or challenged him on the air and, in the very next segment, Chuck Todd was offering this:
TODD: Welcome back. Data Download time. Let's take a look at how the United States is doing compared with other countries in controlling the coronavirus.

At 107 cases per one million people, the United States has one of the highest infection rates in the world. Brazil's is higher, with a seven-day average of about 163 new infections per one million. Russia and India are also in double digits per one million people. And, of course, we can't be sure how accurate the reporting is in all cases...
The problems continued from there. Already, lack of clarity reigned.

Does the United States currently have "107 cases per one million people?" Actually, that would be the number of new (confirmed or reported) cases on a daily basis.

A viewer could have gleaned that information from the small print on the chart which appeared behind Todd. But Todd's entire presentation was very poorly written.

Just within the chunk we've posted, we were especially struck by this statement: "And of course, we can't be sure how accurate the reporting is in all cases."

We certainly can;t be sure of how accurate the reporting is when it comes to American cases! Just last week, the CDC reported that the actual number of cases, overall, may be as much as ten times the current reported number. "Cases" is a slippery metric, for several basic reasons and in several different ways.

Coronavirus statistics can be very hard! If you want to report accurate information, you have to be careful about you say.

In this case, Todd was conveying basic narrative, but the text he was reading was poorly composed. Earlier, Hewitt's unchallenged statement was a miracle of complete/total incomprehension.

While we're at it, we'll refer you to Kevin Drum's discussion of the recent divergence in U.S. statistics between "daily cases," which are rising, and "daily deaths," which have been dropping.

For pro-Trump reasons, Hewitt was trying to make more of the drop in deaths than anyone sensibly could. In recent weeks, we've noted several people overstating the daily number of deaths, perhaps for opposite narrative reasons.

Largely because deaths are "a lagging indicator," Drum says their number could "turn upward next week." Here's the bad news:

At least on a tiny level, daily deaths have already turned upward! The upward movement so far is slight. It may turn out to be a statistical blip, signifying nothing much beyond the lack of a steady drop.

But the seven-day rolling average has in fact inched upward in the last few days—and yes, we're adjusting for the infusion of deaths which suddenly occurred last Thursday, when New Jersey dumped the results of a change in its accounting system into the daily number.

To what extent have deaths inched up? Consider:

At the end of May, American deaths were averaging 915.6 per day (May 25-31). By June 25, the average was all the way down to 567.1 per day (June 19-June 25).

Since then, the seven-day average has nudged up to where it stands at present, 580.7 (June 22-June 28). That may turn out to be nothing much. But the rise in the past few days represents the first time the average has risen since we started keeping track last month.

At any rate, there was Hewitt, reporting live and direct from Pundit Know-Nothing Land. The people you see on your TV shows often know nothing at at all—except, of course, for the glorious shape of their prevailing narratives.

Those they memorize and recite. Quite often, that's pretty much all.

One last factual point: U.S. daily deaths never averaged 2700 in May, or at any earlier point. According to the Post numbers, the daily count went that high on four occasions, though that may have been an artifact of glitches in the day-to-day recording system.

The daily average of deaths exceeded 2000 per day for at most two weeks in April. The average was never as high as 2000 per day at any time in May.

Hewitt was cherry-picking and overstating in service to pro-Trump narrative. He overstated with respect to the American numbers. With respect to the German number, it was Upper-End Pundit Gone Wild.

36 comments:

  1. Yes, "cases" is a bullshit, useless metric, mostly a function of the number of tests performed on the general population.

    That is quite obvious to everyone who is not a brain-dead liberal.

    What else, dear Bob? That someone on TV uttered a wrong number? Puh-leez, dear Bob, that's not news.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a function of the rate of infection. Yes, the number of tests is up; but so is a rate of positive results. To explain it further -- as I am sure you need it -- we used to test, say, 100 people/day and 10 would come up positive; now we are testing 1000, and 150 are coming up positive. Obviously, the numbers are just for illustration purposes.

      The US has pretty much the fourth highest infection rate in the world, after Peru, Chile, and Armenia (I am ignoring Vatican City, Andorra, etc. ). Within a few weeks the US is going to have the highest death rate per million of population; it's 9th highest now. What does this mean? Anything?

      Delete
    2. Dembot, 'cases' is not a function of the rate of infection. It's a function - mostly - of the number of tests performed on the general population. Just like I said.

      There are many more infected people than there are 'cases'. Possibly by an order of magnitude.

      So, you test more people, you get more cases. And that's all there is to it.

      Delete
    3. "Within a few weeks the US is going to have the highest death rate per million of population; it's 9th highest now. What does this mean? Anything?"

      This means that you made a prediction. Remind me of it in a few weeks.

      Other than that, clearly the relatively high death rate in the US is a result of poor management/prevention in state-regulated nursing homes. I've seen recently, in Massachusetts 65% (if memory serves) of all deaths are the nursing homes.

      And Massachusetts is probably the most regulated state, in respect to medical care. So, what does this mean?

      Delete
    4. Twit:
      Yes, "cases" is a bullshit, useless metric, mostly a function of the number of tests performed on the general population..
      What I am pointing out is the rate of infections is trending up. Fast. You seem to be suggesting, as does the fucking twin in the White House, that it's just a number of tests; that is, we are doing more 'tests'. The rate of positives is increasing. More people are getting infected, coming down sick, and dying. My 'prediction' is simply based on a very obvious trend. While other civilized countries -- countries that do not have a brainless conman for their leader -- are seeing a dramatic decrease in the rate of positive cases, the US is chugging along.
      Deaths are going to always fall predominately. on the elderly and people with some preexisting conditions. Massachusetts is at 0.25% increase nowadays, so that's now where it's at...

      Delete
    5. Dear dembot, once again, I said that the number of 'cases' - that is: the number of known infections - is a function of testing, considering that the number of unknown infections is much higher. Is this complicated? Is it not obvious?

      This is all I'm saying, responding to dear Bob's post.

      Now, I understand that you have your own ideas about the rate of infections. It's fine, and you're free to discuss your concerns with anyone who's interested. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the rate did go up, considering the endless and pointless riots happening, week after week, all over the country.

      But what does it have to do with the 'cases' stats? Not much. 'Cases' can be bumped by doing more testing, and lowered by doing less.

      "More people are getting infected, coming down sick, and dying"

      Fewer people are dying. Open worldometers, and check the "7-day moving average" box.

      "countries that do not have a brainless conman for their leader"

      Yeah, right, it's all about The Leader. Liberal Fuhrer will make a speech and the virus surrenders.

      So, how come your liberal states - NY, NJ, CT, MA - have the highest death rates in the world, by far?

      Delete
    6. Twit:
      So, how come your liberal states - NY, NJ, CT, MA - have the highest death rates in the world, by far?
      Not even close. There are a number of countries with a higher death rate, e.g. UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, etc. Some of it may depend on the strain of the virus. I am quite certain it had nothing to do with the strain of your political persuasion. There are different strains of the virus. May also depend on the age of the population.
      If you don't test anyone, you won't have any positive results. That's trivially true. People will still die though. The rate of positive results depends on how widely-spread the virus has become; not how many people are tested. You can also discern the rate of infection from the differential, clinical diagnosis. To flip my earlier example, we could have been testing a lot more and seeing the rate of positive results decreasing, which is the case in the liberal, dembot controlled states, e.g. NY, NJ, IL, MA, etc. New infections and death closely mirror each other and around 0.2 to 0.5%.

      Delete
    7. "Not even close. There are a number of countries with a higher death rate, e.g. UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, etc. "

      Dembot, the death rate in NY state is 1,619/1mil pop. The highest in the world. Three times higher than France or Italy.

      "If you don't test anyone, you won't have any positive results. That's trivially true. People will still die though."

      My point exactly.

      The rest of your comment @6:11 PM is vacuous silly fantasies.

      For example: "The rate of positive results depends on how widely-spread the virus has become"

      The rate of positive results could depend on a number of different things. Most critically: on the selection of people tested each day. Also, perhaps on the tests getting better, giving fewer false negatives.

      "New infections and death closely mirror each other and around 0.2 to 0.5%."

      Not necessarily. The vulnerable segment dies off and those who didn't die are better protected (hopefully). Quacks become more experienced. New remedies are discovered. It's quite possible, even likely, that more people get infected but fewer die.

      Delete
  2. ...but then again it would be surprising if a significant number of rioters didn't get infected - by evilness of WHITE SUPREMACY. But then, dear Bob, they are probably mostly young and healthy, so no big deal.

    ReplyDelete
  3. When are commenters going to realize that Mao is our Village Troll? All he wants is your reaction. He's kinda like the virus: contact with him encourages more comments. Don't respond to the provocation and let the love potion providers and spell casters be his only correspondents.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait, Mao is the troll? All this time, we thought YOU were the troll.

      Delete
    2. We? What happened, did the congress of Anonymous Ignoramuses take a vote? Or are you using the royal first person plural?

      Yes, Mao is a troll. He's tells you as much directly when he posts how much he enjoys the outraged responses to his comments. But you should have been able to figure that out from his content, which is essentially limited to epithets ("Dembot!" "Psychowitch!") and various untruths (Remember his claim that anyone in Boulder, CO could a get a COVID-19 test?)

      No, I'm not a troll. You might not like the fact that I'm often rude, snide, boorish, and contemptuous, but that doesn't make me a troll. Do you want to know why TDH is likely correct in his interpretation of election law? Do you want to know the Supreme Court rulings that underlie the ban on police shoot-to-kill orders or that effectively hamstring school desegregation efforts or that make Trump's hold on aid to Ukraine illegal? Do you want to understand why Florida law made sure that George Zimmerman couldn't be convicted for killing Trayvon Martin? Are you interested in whether TDH actually defended Roy Moore's creepy fascination with underage girls as alleged by some here?

      Not interested? OK, how about what Aristotle actually wrote about man's nature or why Einstein's train gedankenexperiment is instructive or why you can safely ignore TDH's BFF Yuval Harari when the latter opines on evolution?

      Still not interested? Fine, we don't have to care about the same topics, but I engage with discussions here, and trolls like Mao don't.

      Clear, now?

      Delete
    3. Occasionally, the village troll strays into the territory of making "factual" comments -- and then he fucks up, of course. If it's just a question of him name-calling, I am more than happy to let him jack off to the tune of...whatever is playing in his under-developed brain. Although, he is exhibiting some symptoms of OCD and other psychiatric disorders. If I were his parents, I'd be concerned. I am not, so I don't give a fuck.

      Delete
    4. 'Are you interested in whether TDH actually defended Roy Moore's creepy fascination with underage girls as alleged by some here?'

      I'm interested only in the sense that I would like to know why even a devoted Trumptard like Somerby defends Roy Moore so gallantly -- even other Rs couldn't stand him.

      Delete
    5. I'd like to hear why Zimmerman couldn't be convicted. The claim that he was being pounded does not match up with testimony in court (which differed than statements given), at any rate, anyone could find that he was not reasonably under imminent threat of great bodily harm or death.

      Delete
    6. When TDH is correct on anything meaningful, hallelujah! The thing is it has yet to happen.

      Delete
    7. For Anonymous on June 30, 2020 at 7:59 AM:

      It's a combination of law and circumstance. Florida law grants anybody who's in a place he's legally allowed to be the right to use deadly force against another in the circumstance that he reasonably feels in serious peril from that other person.

      Notice that it's the shooter who's the judge of the reasonableness. Some states use the rational person standard (that's your "anybody could find") or a post hoc proportional response standard. Not Florida. Moreover, Florida requires the prosecution to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant who invokes stand-your-ground immunity was not justified in the invocation.

      That's a huge burden when the defendant has killed the only other witness to the event, which is what happened in the Zimmerman-Martin case.

      Zimmerman had a black eye, a broken nose, and cuts to the back of his head. It's likely he took a punch and went down. He claimed on the stand that he felt Martin try to take his holstered handgun, which made him fear for his life. Testimony under oath is usually considered to have the rebuttable presumption of truth, and there was nobody left alive to rebut.

      You may be interested to know that in practice, the benefits of the Florida law to not accrue to black shooters.

      Delete
    8. Somerby gallantly defended Zimmerman

      Delete
    9. BS on the Zimmerman stuff. Anyone could find that beyond a reasonable doubt that Zimmerman had no reasonable threat of imminent death or great bodily harm. The "injuries" were minor at best. It is not credible that the injuries indicated reasonable imminent threat of death or great bodily harm. He had two tiny cuts on the back of his head. The report of a "broken nose" (there was not septal deviation) was from Zimmerman's physician assistant who he went to obtain a note for his work, others contested it, including police officers at the scene. The physician assistant said the "black eye" was a result of the nose injury, of which there is no evidence of how it was caused, it may have been from the gun recoil. A defendant has a different degree of credibility than a general witness; having said that, ZIMMERMAN DID NOT TESTIFY!

      Delete
    10. Let me restate for accuracy: no juror taking Florida law at its word could find that Zimmerman was not entitled to the law's immunity.

      I agree that Zimmerman's injuries seem more in line with a fistfight that he lost than with a life-threatening battle, but -- and here's the important part, so pay attention -- under current Florida law it doesn't matter what I think, it doesn't matter what a reasonable person thinks after the fact, and it doesn't matter whether Zimmerman's life was in actual danger. The only thing that matters is whether Zimmerman reasonably feared his life was in danger, and the prosecution had to prove BARD that Zimmerman's state of mind precluded his gaining the law's immunity.

      You're right that Zimmerman didn't testify. I should have made it clear that his side of the story made it into the record courtesy of the prosecution's own witness, the cop who interviewed Zimmerman during the investigation.

      Zimmerman seemed to me to be an unsympathetic defendant, and his post-trial behavior has sometimes been grotesque, so it's easy to see why reasonable people want to see him punished. But the outcome of the trial was predictable because that's the outcome that the law was designed to effect.

      Delete
    11. Somerby posted dozens (or maybe it was a mere dozen) of posts heroically defending Zimmerman. This shows that TDH was an incipient Trumptard even back then.

      Delete
    12. I understand and appreciate that you are expressing disapproval of Florida's law, and I agree it is terrible (and engenders racism); however, anyone could find Zimmerman guilty even under Florida's nasty law. Beyond that, a juror's finding is neither scientific nor philosophic, nor punishable. The outcome of the trial was most predictable because of the make up of the jury. Zimmerman should have been deterred, incapacitated, and offered means for rehabilitation, even considering Florida's law.

      Somerby may appreciate progressive values, but does not seem to like their methods. He seems to prefer progress follow from his personal notions of integrity. The problem is, his method is ineffectual, and he is fighting battles of a bygone era. How this connects to Zimmerman? The value is in puzzling that out, were a mind open to such.

      Delete

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  4. Somerby doesn't mention what was talked about instead of Hewitt's mistake. Often people ignore an obvious error or misstatement in order to focus on something more important.

    It wouldn't be possible to have a conversation, much less a discussion, if the listener challenged every non-germane factual error and corrected every grammatical mistake, utterly ignoring the point the speaker was trying to make. So what was Hewitt actually talking about and what did the interviewer say instead of correcting his error?

    If this were a news report instead of Meet the Press, and if the information were important and not something that can be looked up online on a variety of highly accurate sites, then criticizing Meet the Press for not correcting their guest might make some sense, but consider the purpose of the show. I suspect there may have been something more important being discussed and the interviewer didn't want to get sidetracked or let Hewitt slide off the hook while pursuing an entirely inconsequential mistake.

    Then Somerby devotes the rest of his essay to more numbers! Numbers aren't the heart of this pandemic -- people are. Somerby never seems to understand what the numbers are describing, never talks about the impact on lives or the consequences for our society, or the feeling of despair some are feeling that causes them to gather in bars and drink with friends. Hugh Hewitt made an error on TV -- alert the media!! Wait, they already know.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Hewitt was cherry-picking and overstating in service to pro-Trump narrative. He overstated with respect to the American numbers. With respect to the German number, it was Upper-End Pundit Gone Wild."

    How sweet -- Somerby has buried the lede.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If Somerby was real media critic, his headline would be "Hugh Hewitt ludicrously allowed on television!"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That headline trivially applies to damn near 100% of the talking heads. Given that Hewitt is on television, certain things need to be examined. It is perfectly fair to ask what physical infirmity precludes Hewitt from obtaining the most basic factual information. I vote for a really bad case of dyslexia.
      PS: People like Hewitt are allowed on TV to "manufacture consent".

      Delete
  7. “In this case, Todd was conveying basic narrative”

    What is the “narrative?” That the US hasn’t done a good job handling the Coronavirus outbreak? That the current situation is bad? That the Trump Administration has abandoned its leadership role during the crisis?

    Those seem like factual statements.

    ReplyDelete
  8. From Politicus:

    "Even though Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma quickly became a laughingstock after only about 6,000 people showed up, it may be having an impact on the spread of coronavirus in the state.

    As MSNBC’s Chris Hayes pointed out on Monday, 100 percent of coronavirus tests in Oklahoma came back positive over the past two days.

    “Yesterday in Oklahoma, they tested 352 people for the coronavirus, and every single test came back positive,” the MSNBC host said. “Today they tested another 178 people, and all those tests came back positive, too.”

    “If you can’t do the math in your head, that’s 100% positive rate,” he added."

    ReplyDelete

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