Could Donald J. Trump win re-election?

MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2020

Yes, he conceivably could: Could Donald J. Trump win re-election?

Yes, he actually could. 

At present, Biden is well ahead in the national polls, but we think Donald J. Trump could still win re-election.

Below, we'll share a lingering fear about what could possibly happen. First, though, this is our idea of the worst possible outcome:

Popular vote:

Biden: 52 percent

Trump: 46 percent

Electoral College:

Biden: 268 votes

Trump: 270 votes

That would be the worst outcome yet, with Trump squeezing by despite a six-point nationwide loss. It's hard to see that the center could hold if our system fails that badly.

How could such an outcome occur? Here's our lingering fear:

We keep wondering how many people will end up failing to vote. 

How many people will fail to negotiate the (unfamiliar) process by which they receive and submit a ballot by mail in their state? How many such people will then stay home on Election Day due to fear of the virus?

Could this procedural complication turn a 10-12 point lead in the national polls into a 6-point  win by Biden? Could it let Trump squeak by in enough swing states to secure a razor-thin Electoral College margin?

That's our lingering fear. And of course, there are many other factors at play designed to stop anti-Trump votes.

Biden could end up winning huge, but we've been worried about this factor. The margins are thinner in the swing states, and the virus is coming on strong.

In Wisconsin, Biden's ahead by maybe six points, but the virus case load is exploding. How will things look on Election Day? How many "likely voters" will end up failing to vote?

On Morning Joe, we hear Joe and Mika citing Republican "panic" about Biden's lead in the polls. We recall an earlier campaign, when the late Robert Novak reported this in his syndicated column:

NOVAK (9/7/00): Undeniable panic is gripping partisan Republicans, from rank-and-file voters to seasoned political operatives, with two full months left before the presidential election. They are dismayed not so much about the surge by Al Gore but the loss of confidence in George W. Bush.

...Perplexed by the boost the vice president was given by his pedestrian acceptance speech in Los Angeles, they are panicked by Bush's seeming inability to counter it.

Polling at the conclusion of the Labor Day weekend not only shows that the Democratic base has returned to Gore. More troubling are defections of vital independent voters from Bush. Since Los Angeles, it is not so much a case of the Democrats succeeding as Republicans failing. The Bush campaign's attempt to undermine Gore's credibility through its maneuvers on presidential debates has flopped.

The Democratic Convention had taken place in Los Angeles in mid-August. After his widely-mocked acceptance speech, Gore shot to a commanding lead in the national polls—and by the end of the Labor Day weekend, his substantial lead seemed to have hardened.

Novak reported "undeniable panic" in Republican ranks. Our well-connected pals at The Hotline were assuring us on a regular basis that everyone in Washington believed the election was over. (No, we didn't believe them.)

"Undeniable panic" was reported at that time by the uber-connected Novak. On Morning Joe, Republican panic is being cited now.  Of one thing you can feel certain:

The mainstream press corps' reaction to that earlier panic won't be repeated today.

Before the week is done, we'll refresh you on what happened when it seemed that the 2000 election was over. Along the way, it involves a conversation between Brian Williams and Howard Fineman, following two brand-new "lies" by Candidate Gore.

These are the stories which haven't been told—the stories which will never be told. 

What happened back then has been disappeared. It's part of the larger set of behaviors which have brought us to this very bad place.

(Novak's old columns no longer appear on-line. For the full text of that particular column, you can just click here.)


52 comments:

  1. "That would be the worst outcome yet, with Trump squeezing by despite a six-point nationwide loss."

    Hmm. The worst compared to what other hypothetical outcomes? Meh. It sounds fine me, dear Bob. Not to mention that there is no such thing as "X-point nationwide loss" in a presidential election.

    You may not be aware, but you do live in a federation of states, dear Bob. Read a middle school textbook or something, my dear.

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      Delete
  2. Somerby's fear is that "It's hard to see that the center could hold if our system fails that badly", born from his center to center-right world view. Additionally, Republican Mike Lee tells us democracy is bad. Somerby expressed the same fear before the 2018 election. Fear on, Somerby, it is of no consequence.

    The center has failed us badly, good riddance.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Could Trump “win” re-election?

    Could Trump win a free and fair election at this point? Possibly.

    But any analysis that glosses over the massive Republican efforts at ratfucking the election with innocuous phrases like “there are many other factors at play designed to stop anti-Trump votes.” or “How many people will fail to negotiate the (unfamiliar) process by which they receive and submit a ballot by mail in their state? How many such people will then stay home on Election Day due to fear of the virus?” is a piss-poor analysis.

    When you have the GOP and courts saying “you can have drop boxes, no you can’t yes you can”, or “you can mail in your ballot without a witness, just kidding, you have to have a witness and the ballot you sent when you didn’t have one when we said you didn’t is invalid, haha”, and “you don’t get any time extension because of a pandemic”, etc etc, you have problems deliberately created by one side of the political spectrum.

    Also, “In Wisconsin, Biden's ahead by maybe six points”

    Hmm.

    It was just a month and a half ago that we got this from Somerby:

    "Goodbye, Wisconsin," top experts now say!”

    Maybe the hoped-for rejection of Biden by Wisconsin voters because of Kenosha just hasn’t kicked in yet.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It is what it is, and no amount of worrying will make it different. Somerby apparently never learned the art of self-soothing.

    Meanwhile, our law enforcement officers and intelligence services are hard at work uncovering and stopping the various plots to steal the election. All the rest of us need to do is be sure to vote. I have already done so, as have most of my friends. I can now die of covid knowing that I did my best to kick Trump out of the White House.

    Somerby's vain attempt today to convince weaker minds that it is useless to vote because Trump may win Wisconsin is likely to have no impact on the outcome.

    Meanwhile, I will sit at home and practice my gloating and feigned pity for when Trump gets kicked out of office.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "The NYT/Siena Poll, rated A+ by 538, has Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead in Michigan and a 51% to 41% lead in Wisconsin. The polls are of likely voters and were taken October 8-11."

    ReplyDelete
  6. If you cannot earn votes, may be you can buy them...

    "New York Times: “Federal payments to farmers are projected to hit a record $46 billion this year as the White House funnels money to Mr. Trump’s rural base in the South and Midwest ahead of Election Day.”

    “The gush of funds has accelerated in recent weeks as the president looks to help his core supporters who have been hit hard by the double whammy of his combative trade practices and the coronavirus pandemic.”

    From Political Wire

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This welfare to farmers is worrisome because we all know what it did to black people. Made them lazy and shiftless!

      Delete
    2. Hopefully the farmers will treat this like the Fortune 1000 treats the tax breaks they get in exchange for investing in the economy. i.e. Take the money and put their hands out and ask for more.

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete
  8. Ah that link to Bartcop brings back memories..

    I wonder what ol' Bart would have made of our current mess, along with another dear departed pundit, Steve Gilliard. In particular, I wonder if either of them would have bought in to the evidence-free Russian collusion nonsense that has so sidetracked our side and given the Trumpistas so many free kicks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mueller ran a piss poor investigation yet he filled an entire volume with evidence. You may not be bothered by it, more power to you. Clearly if anything the investigation and impeachment hurt Trump as 2018 was historic for Dems and 2020 looks the same.

      But please, bore us more with your ignorance.

      Delete
    2. Magnum,
      So you don't think it took a foreign power meddling in the 2016 election to get the Republican base jacked-up to vote for a guy who wears his bigotry on his sleeve?
      Why is that? Do you pay attention, or something?

      Delete
    3. So Putin isn't a diabolical evil genius, who figured out that one weird trick to get Republicans to vote for a bigot?
      Who knew?

      Delete
    4. "Russiagate" was an excuse pushed by the Right-wing, corporate-owned media, to make people think Republican voters care about something more than keeping black people down.
      How anyone can fall for it, is beyond me.

      Delete
    5. Anyone who isn't a bigot, or isn't okay with bigotry, left the Republican Party by 1990.

      Delete
    6. "He filled an entire volume with evidence."

      Evidence of what?

      Delete
  9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#2000_United_States_presidential_election

    He had a few good weeks after his convention, but by late September Gore mostly trailed. He never had the consistent lead that Biden has.

    ReplyDelete
  10. The Jim Jones moment for Trump supporters was a long time ago. How many people that didn’t vote for him last time have seen the light and crossed over to his side? A small handful at best. Stunning that a billionaire like Bloomberg throws down a hundred million dollars in Florida and not a peep about the billionaire Trump family pitching in a few bucks while being outspent handily by the Biden campaign in battleground states. Fascinating.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  12. Somerby continues concern trolling. Not surprising, because Somerby is a hard core, malignant Trumptard who wants Trump to win so he can spend the rest of his miserable existence bitching about 2000.

    ReplyDelete
  13. No way Trump can win this election. The 61 million votes he got in 2016, because he was going to "drain the swamp" (and not at all because of the love of his bigotry), are not going to vote for him again--after he larded his cabinet with swamp people.
    Where is Trump going to find 61 million voters to replace these "economically anxious", and not at all bigoted, voters?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump would get the exact same number of votes if they are all bigots who only vote for Trump because he is a bigot too.

      Bigotry is not an excuse to not acknowledge the class privilege of the elite, is it?

      Delete
    2. The whole bigotry canard will actually crumble if he doesn't get the exact same number of votes, won't it?

      Delete
    3. Trump will get about 40 million votes this time. That means only 66% of Trump voters are bigots.

      Delete
    4. I see. Some moron on here claims all Trump voters are bigots or are okay with bigotry. They think Trump won solely because of bigotry, haha. Fucking idiot. I feel sorry for that stupid fuck.

      Delete
    5. 1:48,
      He's trolling you by pretending Russia didn't really interfere in the 2016 election with the help of Trump's cabal.

      Delete
    6. "I feel sorry for that stupid fuck."

      Especially after we saw the reaction from Trump voters when he filled his cabinet with the swamp. Did this idiot miss when they burnt Mar a Lago to the ground, or was he too busy listening to them cry over a QB kneeling during the national anthem?

      Delete
    7. He's just a total fucking dumb fuck. Sucks for him. That nonsense prevents our party from introspection and revising and renewing its mission.

      Delete
    8. "filled his cabinet with the swamp"

      This pathetic dipshit is stupid enough to think bigotry is the only motivating factor. You would have to laugh at the ignorance if it wasn't such a serious subject. He's probably just a bigot himself projecting.

      Delete
    9. He will always lose that argument and always come off looking like an idiot. No mystery why. It's a foolish, idiotic argument.

      Delete
    10. 9:37,
      Agreed. Of course it was Russia.

      Delete
    11. Laughing at the ignorance of thinking all Trump voters are bigots, distracts one from realizing it's been almost 4 years, and no one can come up with an alternative reason.

      Delete
    12. It wasn't Trump's bigotry. It was that other thing. You know. The world's greatest mystery.

      Delete
    13. Maybe it was the Trump voters deep understanding of economics. LOL.

      Delete
    14. You're the only one who thinks they are all bigots and bigotry is the only factor. It's been almost 4 years and you can't come up with an alternative reason because you're stupid. Or whatever. Just scared. Ignorant. Afraid to face the truth of your own party's shortcomings and how Trump used them to get votes. Whatever. Have a nice day dumbfuck.

      Delete
    15. "It's been almost 4 years and you can't come up with an alternative reason because you're stupid."

      What's the reason you, the mainstream media, and Trump voters can't come up with an alternative reason than Trump's bigotry?

      Delete
    16. 9:03,
      How many more years will you need to come up with a reason for Trump's election that isn't bigotry?
      50?
      60?

      Delete
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    Because rules are for other people, not conservatives. These are not nice people. Screwing with the election by breaking rules is what they do. That's why they love Trump. He breaks rules too and goes on breaking them without any consequences. Republicans all want to be like him! Do whatever they want without thinking about anyone else.

    ReplyDelete
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  23. (RESTORED MARRIAGE) I PROMISE TO TELL THE WORLD MY TESTIMONY...

    Hello everyone, I am happy to share this Wonderful Testimony to the world... I'm  Victoria Matins and i am from Scotland. My husband and I have been married for 9 years with 3 kids, my husband and I had a little fight because of the way he has been going to nightclubs and keeping late nights and he has been cheating on me with another lady called bella, so because of this he wanted to divorce me and move in with her, i was so afraid to lose him because of our kids and i love him very much so i search online for help and i saw a lot of people's testimonies on how Dr BALBOSA help them and came out with positive results like Divorces, Cancers, lotteries, fertilities and others. So I emailed him and told him my problem and he responded and he told me what to do and I did it as he instructed, 24 hours later he told me he is done with the spell and my husband will no longer divorce me and he will always love me like never before. The next day my husband called me and apologized for all he had done to me and I was so happy to welcome him back to my life..so i decided to share this testimony to the world...I thank Dr BALBOSA for his help... If you are having a similar issue please contact him today for help...his email is: balbosasolutionhome@gmail.com and you can also add him on call and WhatsApp +2347048047728...stay safe from Victoria Martins..

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