Kristof reports a projected deluge!

 MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2020

Breaking elementary rules, displays intellectual skill: In yesterday's New York Times, Nicholas Kristof broke every rule in the book.

Conduct like this is rarely observed. Concerning the possible spread of the virus, Kristof displayed some basic intellectual skill:

KRISTOF (10/4/20): The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that 363,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19 by Jan. 1. That would amount to more Americans dying in nine months from the virus than the total number of combat deaths over four years in World War II.

[...]

Think about that. As a country, we’re still seared by the nearly 3,000 deaths in the 9/11 attacks. But the institute’s model warns that by the end of December, we’ll be losing that many each day.

Say what? According to a major projection, we'll be experiencing nearly 3,000 Covid-19 deaths per day by the end of the year?

So said Kristof, correctly describing the current projection by the University of Washington's IHME. We discussed that institute's projection back on September 23. 

We did so when  Lester Holt reported on the projection. He did so, in the least informative possible way, on NBC Nightly News. 

Holt reported the total number of deaths the IHME was projecting to take place by the end of the year. In doing so, he completely buried the lede:

Holt reported the total number of deaths the IHME was projecting. He didn't report the remarkable increase in the daily and weekly death rate this new projection entailed.

The IHME's projection is just a projection, of course. Nothing says that it will be right. Almost surely, it will be wrong to some minor (or major) extent.

That said, Kristof actually managed to report the major part of the IHME's projection. By the end of the year, almost 3,000 Americans will be dying from the virus on a daily basis!

That projection compares to our current rate of roughly 700 daily deaths.  That projected daily death rate would be substantially higher than the 2,000 daily deaths we briefly experienced, for roughly two weeks, back in mid-April.

Will the IHME projection turn out to be basically accurate? We have no way of knowing. 

We do know this—the IHME is predicting a serious killing field as of the end of the year. It was a marker of our press corps' flyweight analytical level when Holt blew past this gruesome part of the IHME's projection. 

Meanwhile, this horrible projection gains added meaning as the commander in chief continues to say and suggest that the dying is pretty much over. 

As we noted earlier, this new projection by the IHME produced barely a blip of reporting or discussion when it appeared. Holt did report the projection on Nightly News, but he (and his correspondents) thoroughly buried the lede.

Two weeks later, Kristof has journeyed to this link and offered a more granular account of what the IHME is projecting. That projection of nearly 3,000 deaths per day flies in the face of what Donald J. Trump has been cheerfully saying.

The projection will be imperfect. But the IHME is projecting disaster, and the band has largely kept playing on.


20 comments:

  1. Ah, the dembot science.

    Check the excess deaths, dear Bob: there are none.

    But never mind, dear Bob, the Cult Knows Best.

    Harken, The Covidean Creed...

    We believe in one Virus, the SARS-COV-2, the Almighty, destroyer of heaven and earth, that is all there is, seen and unseen.

    We believe in one Malady, Covid-19, the only son of SARS-COV-2, eternally begotten of the Virus, God from God, Darkness from Darkness, true God from true God, begotten, not made (probably) of one Being with the Virus.

    For diseases are they none but the One True Virus and Death comes not without Its presence. Thou shalt have no diseases before the One True Virus. They that die outside the Virus shall not have their passing told unto the people on a quotidian basis in hushed tones, but shall be quietly recorded in obscure tables when the time comes.

    Through the Virus all things were unmade.
    For us men (and women and all points in between) and for our damnation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fucking idiot:

      Covid slightly higher than excess death because of 1) fewer car & workplace accidents, 2) fewer elective surgeries.

      Delete
    2. Social distancing is causing fewer traumas.

      Try again for another scapegoat for your Dear Leader's colossal fuck up, dumb shit.

      Delete
    3. That's the best thing the Establishment could come up with?
      Sad.

      Delete
    4. Excess deaths have been up around 20% (as high as 50% early on) since Covid started, but has been trending down due to the shutdown.

      Republicans breath in, tell a lie, breathe out.

      Delete
    5. There are more Covid cases in the White House than in New Zealand, Taiwan, and Vietnam combined.

      And Dembots still are trying to deflect blame from Governor Cuomo whose fault the whole thing is.

      (and I'm gay.)

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  2. You can see the deluge in action in the number of people in the WH and Trump's immediate vicinity who are infected.

    People all over the country are behaving as Trump has done.

    Somerby is fixated on models and statistics and is ignoring the behavior that is going on all around us.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "“He has experience now fighting the coronavirus… those first-hand experiences, Joe Biden doesn’t have those.”

    — Trump campaign spokesperson Erin Perrine, attacking Joe Biden on Fox News for not getting the coronavirus."

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