What if the GOP actually wins?


With rumblings from Cleveland and Oakland: In this morning's Washington Post, Megan McArdle dares to ask a certain question:

What if the GOP actually wins the 2024 White House election? What if they win fair and square? 

That question anchors an important column. In print editions, McArdle's headline says this:

What if the GOP becomes a majority party?

In some ways, the question may seem silly. Starting in 1992, the Democratic candidate has won the popular vote in seven of the last eight White House campaigns. 

That said, the winning margins haven't always been huge. In dystopian fashion, McArdle sets the stage for possible disaster as her column starts:

MCARDLE (1/12/22): What happens if Democrats lose in 2024?

I don’t mean “What if Republican-controlled legislatures override the results of the presidential election?” or even a less noxious “What if a Republican wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote?” I mean, what if Democrats just … lose?

The question is admittedly speculative, but it’s not as far-fetched as my left-leaning readers might imagine. They ought to start imagining it, however, because the more the left assumes it can’t happen, the more likely it becomes.

"The more the left assumes it can’t happen, the more likely it becomes?" We'd say there's a germ of truth to that statement. We'd say it could happen here.

(We have no idea if it will.)

How could such a crazy thing happen? In her column, McArdle cites some indications which may suggest that all may not be going well out in the provinces. 

MCARDLE: [T]he belief in an “emerging Democratic majority” predates any Trumpian alarm bells. It goes back to a 2002 book by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira that outlined how demographic change could give Democrats a durable advantage. Over time, the left elevated the authors’ modest hypothesis into a prophecy; in 2016, one heard repeated suggestions that Republicans might never win another presidential election.

That belief helped shift left-wing politics further leftward—less need to worry about wooing moderates when you can instead just turn out your growing base. Yet that leftward shift alienated a chunk of White working-class voters whom Judis and Teixeira had counted on keeping in the Democratic camp. Now, Teixeira is warning that Democrats risk losing many Hispanic and Asian voters, too.

Are members of various demographic groups sliding away from the Democrats? Only time will tell how such things will shake out.

That said, we've recently read a pair of essays by center-left parents of public school kids who report that our noxious tribal behavior is driving them away from the fold. If you think our self-impressed tribe's relentlessly noxious and stupid behavior can't accomplish this task on a wider scale, we think you may be in La-La Land at this particular juncture.

One of those essays appeared in The Atlantic. It was written by the lefty parent of a white kid in the Cleveland public schools—and there are very few parents like that out there!

The other essay appeared at Politico; it was written by the Hispanic parent of a public school kid in Oakland. Each of these left-leaning women describe the way their faith in the tribe has been reduced, perhaps even broken, by the noxious behavior they've encountered as they've tried to discuss the best ways to run the public schools during the pandemic.

Racialized insults were hurled around; the mothers were of course referred to as Karens. The woods are lovely, dark and deep, but we liberals aren't nearly as fine as we may say when we start to emote about our own moral grandeur.

Our tribe is frequently stupid, small, petty, dumb—and our tribe is highly performative. These are traits we often can't see in ourselves—but everyone else can see them.

How small, stupid and dumb can we be? We'll recommend that you read the comments to McArdle's column. 

McArdle herself joins in the discussion as Post readers wail and complain. McArdle's comments make perfect sense. By way of contrast, our tribe is relentlessly insulting, small-minded and just plain dumb as we lodge our scripted attempts at rebuttal.

From time immemorial, our liberal tribe has told itself that we are the smart, decent, good ones. As for The Others, they were "all made of ticky-tacky, and they all looked just the same!"

In recent years, our unending streams of dumbness have perhaps begun to put our reign in peril. How many people will quit our tribe? We don't have the slightest idea, but we here in our self-impressed tribe are persistently delusional, phony, fake, faux.

Unfortunately, McArdle's column is well worth considering. So are the comments which pour in from the Post's liberal readers. Those comments may help us grasp a key fact:

We may not be as brilliant and great and morally pure as we constantly claim to be.


  1. "What if they win fair and square? "

    Oh dear. Your liberal cult will burn you at the stake for asking heretical questions like this, dear Bob.

    Repeat after me, dear: every time your liberal-hitlerian cult loses, it's always a consequence of the American public being hypnotized by Dark Lord Putin.

    There can be no other reason. Comprende?

  2. If, despite our best efforts, the Republicans win the presidency in 2024, fair and square, we go on from there with a Republican president. It has happened before and it will happen again. So what?

    It isn't going to happen because some parent has a hard time at a school board meeting. It isn't going to happen because Democrats support civil rights and want to improve race relations. It isn't going to happen because Somerby or even Megan McArdle writes a column.

    Somerby seems to think that he can blackmail liberals into abandoning issues related to civil rights simply by claiming that we may lose votes by pressing such issues. That is hardly new and if we lose some votes, we will gain others. No election is going to be won or lost over the things Somerby threatens us with here.

    Many discussions about how to operate the schools are overheated right now because of covid. My hope is that covid will no longer be causing so much stress to parents, teachers and kids, by 2024. No matter what these individuals say about their party allegiances, I doubt anyone would seriously switch political party because someone dissed her at a school board meeting. But Somerby will grasp at any straw to try to convince liberals to be less liberal. That's what he does here.

  3. "Each of these left-leaning women describe the way their faith in the tribe has been reduced, perhaps even broken, by the noxious behavior they've encountered as they've tried to discuss the best ways to run the public schools during the pandemic."

    This is a pretty good example of what entitlement looks like in the real world. These women expect their party to look out for their personal concerns, to reflect their opinions about local issues such as schools, even when a political party includes many different people with possibly conflicting needs and interests. It sounds like these women are so sure that the party must represent them that they will leave if it doesn't. That's just plain white entitlement, and it isn't pretty.

    It is like saying "this is my party and if it doesn't do what I want, I'm going elsewhere."

    Then Somerby suggests that if the Democrats don't appease white working people, they will leave and become Republicans. Again, there is an implicit assumption that the party exists for white working class people, not a wide variety of people who may be different from each other, and if the white ones leave, we may lose in 2024. I assume that is because the votes of anyone else (non-white, not necessarily working class) don't matter? And the white people will take their ball and go home, if they don't get things their way? That is how this is coming across, as Somerby describes it.

    People should vote Democratic if they agree with the Democratic platform, not because it pays the most attention to them. They should vote Republican if they can stomach it (they had no platform in 2020). People should be basing their votes on what will be best for our nation in terms of programs, issues, and competent representation, not based on identity or membership in a club that supplies red hats, or because you love to see Donald Trump own the libs.

    Someone who thinks that a party must serve only their own interests should be a Republican, because that is the party of self-interest, narcissism and greed. Democrats serve the common good and is the party of people who realize we are all in this together.

    That said, Somerby only grabbed these articles because they contained the word Karen. He doesn't actually care about covid-related school issues and the tensions they create.

    1. This is such a very stupid and naive take on the matter.

    2. Somerby's theory hinges on something that does not exist: there are no significant numbers of voters drifting between the two parties. Righteous is borne from guilt and soothed by projection; on the other hand, stupidity and naivete are no doubt traits that play a significant role in Somerby's nonsense. The comments do a good job exposing Somerby for the sham he is, but who will do the hard work of helping him climb out of the abyss he has fallen into?

    3. You're full of shit.

  4. You just might be a bigot if...

    the most noxious behavior you encounter at a school board meeting comes from the left and not the unmasked anti-vaxxers and book burners and community members insisting that Nazism be taught "objectively".

    Talk about dumbness!

  5. We need more parents to be involved in political matters. Can't wait to see them tell the police how to do their jobs, because little Johnny and Sue shouldn't be at the mercy of those who think they know best.

  6. That’s an easy question for today…
    The answer is Bob will be living in the America he wants, and the people he has dedicated his life to despising will be punished.
    Next question?

  7. "We may not be as brilliant and great and morally pure as we constantly claim to be."

    Overstating in every way. Shame on you.

  8. There is also the notion that the Atlantic and Politico have an interest in running stories about “I was a liberal until the shitlibs did x…”, something that the New York Times pitchbot frequently parodies, such as “ | was a lifelong liberal Democrat. Then I watched a deceptively-edited interview with CDC Director Rochelle Walensky on Rumble.”

    These types of stories amplify the “libs are horrible” shit that is common in the msm and serves an anti liberal bias there. We do know it exists, right?

    Are these types of things common, common enough to get major placement in mainstream media publications?

  9. McArdle says
    “A left that understood it could lose, outright, would still care about election integrity. But it would also try to stem recent losses by shifting focus away from the divisive issues that excite young progressives, and toward bread-and-butter policies that are broadly popular”

    She provides a link (to another of her own columns, of course) to describe what those “divisive” issues might be.

    Climate change is one of them.

    I can’t imagine in what world (other than ours of course) a concern with the extinction of the planet is divisive, and purely one that somehow interests only woke, elitist liberals.

    She also fails, of course, to describe those bread and butter issues that she claims are broadly popular.

    Venture to name one, and I will refute it.

  10. What if the Democrats lose the electoral college and the popular vote? (You mean, like they did in 2004?)

    They will figure out how to continue the fight.

    Somerby, of course, will continue to heap derision and scorn on them.

    Another hypothetical: what if the Republicans lose, but decide to throw out the results in favor of their guy?

    Will McArdle say boo?

  11. “ McArdle herself joins in the discussion as Post readers wail and complain. McArdle's comments make perfect sense. By way of contrast, our tribe is relentlessly insulting, small-minded and just plain dumb as we lodge our scripted attempts at rebuttal.”


  12. If the GOP actually wins in 2024, the corporate-owned Right-wing mainstream media (AKA the media) will still pretend Republican voters care about something other than bigotry.

  13. What if the GOP actually wins?

    The federal government is then larded with Establishment Elites and pedophiles.

  14. Here is Glen Beck's prediction (made on Tucker Carlson's show):

    "This is not an American problem. This is the entire West going away by 2030. And I think - you know the World Economic Forum just war gamed the next economic collapse. I think that's coming in the next couple of years. I could be wrong. I usually am on timing. But when that happens, it is lights out. It is over. They will control your food, your water, your work, your education, your banking, your money, gasoline. [...] They are going to bankrupt the entire West. And only the elites are going to be able to have money, the food they want, the jobs they want, etc., etc. We will be left in the dust. We must educate ourselves right now."

    Maybe this is where Somerby gets his doomsday tone and dire predictions?

    What if Republicans win? It will be mass hysteria -- dogs and cats, living together! Throw your dish towel over your head and run out into the street...

  15. An actual media critic might mention this:

    "Fox News used an 11-year old photo of empty store shelves in Japan to slam who they now call “Bare Shelves Biden,” Mediaite reports."

  16. This is why we need the Voting Rights acts:

    "“Extreme Republicans loyal to Donald Trump and his ‘big lie’ that the 2020 election was rigged have formed a nationwide alliance aiming to take control of the presidential election process in key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential race,” The Guardian reports.

    “At least eight Republicans who are currently running to serve as chief election officials in crucial swing states have come together to form the coalition.”


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