Georgia picks Biden, Ohio says no!

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2020

Weirdly, Krugman explains: At present, Biden has won Georgia by less than half a point. He has lost Ohio by eight.

What explains these different outcomes? Weirdly, Krugman explains:

KRUGMAN (11/10/20): [T]he fact that Democrats are now competitive in Georgia but not in Ohio, which appears to have become Trumpier than Texas, tells you a lot about where America is heading. In some ways these changes in the electoral map offer reason for hope; but they also suggest looming problems for U.S. democracy.

How did Georgia turn faintly blue? As The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson wrote, in a phrase I wish I’d come up with, the great divide in American politics is now over “density and diplomas”: highly urbanized states—especially those containing large metropolitan areas—with highly educated populations tend to be Democratic.

Say what? Biden did eight points better in Georgia because its population is more highly educated?

Later, Krugman seems to advance this claim further. This time, he brings Wisconsin and Michigan into the mix:

KRUGMAN: In practice, density and diplomas tend to go together—an association that has grown stronger over the past few decades. Modern economic growth has been led by knowledge-based industries; these industries tend to concentrate in large metropolitan areas that have highly educated work forces; and the growth of these metropolitan areas brings in even more highly educated workers.

Hence the transformation of Georgia. The state is home to greater Atlanta, one of the nation’s most dynamic metropolises, which now accounts for 57 percent of Georgia’s population. Atlanta has drawn in a growing number of college-educated workers, so that at this point the percentage of working-age adults with bachelor’s degrees is higher in Georgia than in Wisconsin or Michigan. So at some level it shouldn’t be surprising that Georgia apparently joined the “blue wall” in securing the presidency for Biden.

According to Krugman, Georgia joined the blue wall for Biden because its population is well educated. Indeed, the percentage of working-age adults with bachelor’s degrees is higher in Georgia than in Wisconsin or Michigan, Krugman says.

For the record, the percentage is also higher in Georgia than in Ohio. Is that why Georgia went blue, while Ohio voted for Trump?

This idea struck us as possibly far-fetched. We decided to check the data to which Krugman provided a link.

On the one hand, it's true! Georgia does have more college-educated voters, or at least it did two years ago within a certain age range. But, according to Krugman's source, the differences are small:

Adults 25 to 64 with a bachelors degree or higher, 2018:
Georgia: 33.3%
Ohio: 30.9%
Michigan: 31.2%
Wisconsin: 31.8%

Those are the data to which Krugman linked. Georgia's percentage was higher than Ohio's, but only by a smidge. 

Does that explain the gap between Georgia and Ohio this year? Or could it perhaps be related to this, as recorded in this year's (imperfect) exit poll data?

Racial identity of 2020 voters:
Georgia: 61% white, 29% black
Ohio: 84% white, 11% black

According to the exit polls, Ohio's electorate is much whiter. When we compare these states, the "education" gap is small, the "racial" gap much larger.

For what it's worth, "race" isn't always destiny. In Ohio, Biden won 41% of white votes. In Georgia, the number was 30%. 

That's according to the exit polls, which can't be assumed to be perfectly accurate. That said, the education gap seems rather small, the racial gap much larger.

Why did Georgia tip to Biden while Ohio went to Trump? For our money, Krugman's explanation is extremely odd.

Weirdly, Krugman explained. What we want to know is how do you like the things you read in our blue-eyed top newspaper now?


30 comments:

  1. The less quantitative explanation for why Georgia went blue is the hard work of Stacey Abrahms and the foiling of voter suppression efforts that kept her from winning her election to Governor in 2018.

    Also, what Somerby calls "a smidge" of a difference is 10%. There are close to 10% more college degrees in GA than in OH. That can clearly make the difference in a close election, not that OH was close. Also, don't forget that MI and WI went for Biden. 2016 can be considered an aberration due to the interference by Russia and Comey and some Bernie bros who stayed home. Or it may just be that white Midwestern males just aren't going to vote for a female president. Somerby has yet to discuss effects of toxic masculinity on voting even though that is a glaring explanation for Trump's success with a certain kind of guy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, her name is spelled Abrams (no h).

      Delete
    2. Not sure why Somerby was pissing in Krugman's cornflakes on this. Thanks for your well-reasoned response.

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    4. 11:17, that's what you get here, well-reasoned responses. And your much-appreciated sarcasm will be evidence to 10:55 of her superior reasoning abilities. So it goes.

      Leroy

      Delete
    5. Fuck off Leroy. How's that for reasoning?

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  2. Calling someone weird because you disagree with a small technical point sounds kind of tribal to me.

    ReplyDelete
  3. OH may have said no, but the majority of the country, including the majority of the Electoral College said "hell, yes!".

    Somerby is an asshole. Why is he focusing on one lost state when so many others were won?

    ReplyDelete
  4. There's one state, which happens to be the most educated state in the union, where not a single country voted for Trump, even outside the densely populated Urban area. Actually, not a single county in Hawaii voted for Trump either, but that doesn't count.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Another meritless lawsuit bites the dust:

    "Trump campaign files new election lawsuit in Pennsylvania
    Source: The Hill

    President Trump’s campaign on Monday filed a new lawsuit against Pennsylvania’s secretary of state and seven counties, seeking an injunction prohibiting them from certifying the state’s results of the 2020 election.

    The lawsuit, filed in federal district court in Pennsylvania, alleges that the commonwealth implemented an illegal “two-tiered” voting system in which voters were held to different standards depending on whether they voted in person or submitted their ballots by mail.

    Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) dismissed the new lawsuit as “meritless.”

    “This is the latest meritless lawsuit to challenge Pennsylvania’s election, which was overseen by bipartisan election officials and was lawful, fair and secure. For months, the vast majority of these lawsuits have been dismissed and found to have no merit by Courts at all levels, and this one is no different,” Shapiro said in a statement.

    “I am confident Pennsylvania law will be upheld and the will of the people of the Commonwealth will be respected in this election,” he continued.

    Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/525224-trump-campaign-files-new-election-lawsuit-in-pennsylvania
    "

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  7. blogger has been goin on and on for decades on behalf of "us librulz" - if he didn't expose himself through the Trayvon martin case - he has repeated this leprous fact bubbling up from right wing fever swamps: "trump won the popular vote if you don't count CA"

    he should come out for his philosophy "permanently angry white male codger" ism.

    ReplyDelete
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  15. My name is Joel dwin  am from Texas US. I want to share a testimony of how Dr DADA herbal mixture product saves me from shame and disgrace, my penis was a big problem to me as the size was really so embarrassing,and i was also having weak erection problem. I cant make love to my wife and my penis was just too small, a full grown man like me having 4 inches penis and to worsen it i don't last in sex, i cant even last two minutes it was really a thing of shame to me. My wife was really tired of me because my sex life was very poor,she never enjoyed sex,i was always thinking and searching for solutions everywhere until when i saw a testimony of how Dr.DADA  herbal product have been helping people regarding their sex life, so i decided to give him a try and to my greatest surprise in less than one week of taking the herbs my penis grow to 8 inches i couldn't believe my eyes and as i speak now my penis is now 8 inches and i do not have week erection again. I can make love to my wife longer in bed. And my marriage is now stable,my wife now enjoy me very well in bed. You can contact him via drdadaspellhome7@gmail.com  or Whatsapp him +22367565345

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  16. I just want to share my experience with the entire world on how i got my husband back and saved my marriage… I was married for 5 years with 2 kids and i have been living happily with my family until things started getting ugly with me and my husband that leads us to fights and arguments almost every time… it got worse at a point that my husband filed for divorce… I tried my best to make him change his mind & stay with me cause i love him with all my heart and didn't want to loose my husband but everything just didn't work out… He moved out of the house and still went ahead to file for divorce… I pleaded and tried everything but still nothing worked. The breakthrough came when someone introduced me to this wonderful, great spell caster called Dr Mark, Who eventually helped me out… I have never been a fan of things like this but just decided to try it because I was desperate and left with no choice… He did the spell for me and things really work out as he promise and my husband have a change of mind and come back home to stay with me and the kids. And promise never to hurt me again. we are living happily as it was with the help of Dr Mark. If you are in need of any help you can contact Dr Mark Email: drmarktempleforsolution@gmail.com

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  17. I just got my wife back through the help of genuine love spell caster dr Odion. Ever since Dr Odion helped me, my wife is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fix. Here his contact, WhatsApp him at:  +234813 648 2342  
    Email him at: wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com 

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  18. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
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  19. Contact DR DADA for Your Penis Enlargement pills which is capable of turning  your sex life from a laughing stock into a paradise. i had my penis grown from 4 inches to 10 inches and my sex life is wonderful contact DR DADA today to get your penis issue fixed he also cures sickness with his herbal medication my Aunt was cured of herpes as a results of DR DADA Herbal medication he cures lots of sickness, HIV/AID, HSV 1&2, CANCER, ASTHMA, HPV, COPD and lots more get in touch with him on today and get what bothering YOU soled mail (drdadaspellhome7@gmail.com) OR WHATAPP +22367565345  

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