Why did Dems lose seats in the House?

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2020

Again with the latest headcounts: For today, we'll recommend a new colloquy between New York magazine's Eric Levitz and Democratic number-cruncher David Shor.

Levitz offers a brief introduction to the lengthy discussion. Once again, we're prepared to explain the highlighted observation:

LEVITZ (11/13/20): Barring an unlikely triumph in Georgia’s Senate runoffs in January, the 2020 election will go down as a down-ballot disaster for the Democratic Party. Even as Biden won the popular vote by as much as five points, Democrats saw their House majority shrink, most of their top Senate challengers fall flat, and their attempts to flip state legislatures come up empty. What’s worse, these losses appear attributable to trends that raise ominous questions about the party’s electoral prospects going forward: The most xenophobic Republican president in modern memory made large gains with Latino voters, while white rural America continued its steady rightward march. Most Democrats weren’t prepared for these disappointments.

Once again, the question arises. If Biden won the popular vote by as much as five points, why did Democrats see their House majority shrink?

As we noted at the start of the week, this doesn't seem like much of a mystery. Here's the breakdown of the electorate in 2018—the electorate which gave Dems 235 House seats:

Total votes, nationwide, 2018 House elections:
Democrats: 60,572,245 (53.4%)
Republicans: 50,861,970 (44.8%)

Biden may end up defeating Trump by as much as five points. But the 2018 electorate favored Dems by almost nine points—by roughly 8.6!

(In a president's initial off-year election, it's typical for the opposition party to turn out more heavily than the president's party.)

In short, the Dems had a larger turnout advantage last time around. We don't know why it should be surprising to see that this year's electorate gave Democrats fewer House seats. 

Dems keep winning the popular vote in national elections. That said, a lot of the Democratic vote is "wasted" in super-majority California and in overwhelmingly Democratic House districts.

Meanwhile, our cockeyed system of "Senate math" vastly favors the GOP. Also, we have the basic fact Kevin Drum recently cited:

There are a lot of conservatives out there! Whatever such fuzzy terms might mean, self-identified conservatives tend to outnumber self-identified liberals by a substantial margin.

You go to the polls with the electorate you have. It's also true that Democrats face several significant structural disadvantages. These basic facts can't be wished away, not even by giants like us. 

Shor identifies as a socialist, but he has also looked at the numbers (and looked and looked and looked). Here's the final Q-and-A, vastly edited down:

LEVITZ: [A]ssuming you still identify as a socialist—what does that identification mean to you? And do you think that your empirical analysis of how politics works today is compatible with a belief in the possibility of socialism’s realization at some distant future date?

SHOR: I still identify as a socialist. I think there’s a lot of academic arguments that we can have. But like I said, when you look at all the popular things that are out there, there’s a lot we can do. And it’s true that not being able to pass large middle-class tax increases is a big constraint. It means we can’t re-create Sweden, definitely can’t re-create things past Sweden. But I think that pretending that these very real political constraints don’t exist does not accomplish anything. 

...And you can’t just switch off cultural conservatism or pretend that it doesn’t exist.

Shor identifies as a socialist, but he says we can't pretend that The Others don't exist! Where does he get these ideas?

Final point:

People with conservative views have every right to hold them. Our tribe is strongly inclined to "otherize" these people, in ways which can get ugly and dumb.

Politically, this probably isn't especially helpful. But our species has always been like this, and we don't seem inclined to move beyond our basic wiring.

Concerning the brilliance we tend to ascribe to ourselves:

A five-point advantage is less than nine. This seems like an obvious point, but we can't seem to puzzle it out!


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  2. On the other hand, this article at Daily Kos explains why Somerby's constant belittling of professors and others with expertise is bad for our country:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/14/1995469/-Anti-intellectualism-is-killing-people-all-around-us-and-the-left-needs-to-eradicate-it

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  3. "A five-point advantage is less than nine. This seems like an obvious point, but we can't seem to puzzle it out!"

    Seems to me, an essay about how liberals cannot understand basic math needs to start with some example of liberals failing to do that math. Here, Somerby's contradiction of the concern about losing House seats, comes from liberals such as Kevin Drum (who writes for Mother Jones).

    The right has been pointing out that the Democrats only took the presidency, and talking about "wasted" California votes, but the left doesn't think that way. Here, Somerby takes a right-wing perspective, attributes it to Democrats, then uses Democrats to argue against it. How does that make any sense?

    It would have been nice to win the Senate, but months ago the unlikelihood of doing that was accepted as reality. Dems may yet win the runoffs in Georgia, and it is an achievement to have come so close when there will be fewer secure conservative incumbents during the midterms. Somerby seems to confuse the voices of polling experts and serious party leadership with exuberant, enthusiastic partisans trying to whip up hopes in order to get out the vote, or horse race media figures trying to generate excitement about their down-ticket reporting.

    There are always people willing to further the conservative meme that even when Democrats win, they are losers. Somerby is arguing against that meme, but he is talking to the wrong people. Democrats can do math and don't believe conservative talking points. But Somerby seems to have bought into it, even as he argues against it. Essays like this one are why I believe he exists to repeat talking points, even when pretending to argue against them.

    Shorter Somerby: Those stupid liberals, will they ever learn?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Somerby reprints part of an interview with a self-identified socialist without ever discussing the dispute within the left about whether identifying as socialist (or radical progressive) is good or bad for House candidates, and whether such extreme views benefited the party as a whole during this election.

    There has been some in-fighting between the AOC and Bernie faction and the more moderate Democrats (who call themselves liberal and Democratic). The latter are upset about attacks of extremism against the Democratic Party, blaming the Bernie fringe for the failure to win more House seats.

    I have no doubt that Somerby has been following this controversy. Yet, he presents Shor without placing him in political context. He doesn't explain where the criticism is coming from over the debate about whether progressive views help or hurt the party outside of radical enclaves.

    This is the debate that Democrats have been having, not some stupid quarrel over math. And no Democrat ever calls votes in CA or NY or Chicago or any of the other liberal strongholds "wasted" votes. Kamala Harris came from one of those wasted vote states, which suggests she was added to the ticket, not because she would win a wasted-vote state, but because she would attract voters in other areas too by representing views and values important to winning nationwide (attracting blacks, women, law-and-order voters, progressives). Somerby doesn't like Harris, despite her progressivism, perhaps because she is black and supports women's issues -- these are the identity issues that Bernie thinks can be ignored.

    What self-respecting conservative would ever call Texas a wasted-vote state? Look how ridiculous that sounds coming from the right. It is just as silly when Somerby applies it to the left, hinting that CA's majority is produced by illegal voters. The idea that every vote counts, every vote matters, is central to liberal thinking. The concept of wasted voters is not. But once again Somerby comes out with conservative memes, as if liberals are responsible for addressing every stupid thing that comes from the right to harass or disparage the left. Somerby is doing no one any favors when he repeats this stuff that he hears on Fox News.

    ReplyDelete
  5. “Our tribe is strongly inclined to "otherize" these people, in ways which can get ugly and dumb.””

    No Democratic house or senate candidate was engaged in “otherizing” conservative voters. Biden specifically appealed to Republicans, and that is probably why he was able to pull off a win. My feeling is that Warren or Bernie would have lost in a landslide.

    On the other hand, Republicans were busy shouting down Democrats as “socialists”, ie “otherizing” them. This has been put forward as a reason why significant segments of the Latino vote went for Trump. Those Cuban-American voters in south Florida despise “socialism”, even if they misunderstand the differences between Cuban socialism and what the Democrats stand for.

    The notion that Democrats are busy demonizing conservatives is false, ginned up by Republicans and supported by the mainstream media. You’d think that a critic of the mainstream media might talk about that, rather than excoriating liberals and helping to reinforce the false narratives.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If Bernie Sanders and Angus King, both independents who vote with the Democrats, were to become Democrats, the Democrats would now have control of the Senate. It would be an awfully good way to prevent more Republican mischief going forward.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Somerby keeps talking about our (e.g. liberal) inflated self-importance. He says things like: "Concerning the brilliance we tend to ascribe to ourselves". Yesterday, he took potshots at Masha Gesson, disparaging her high IQ and calling her and her co-author "overpaid eggheads" (is there a standard of pay for writing about authoritarianism?). He accuses liberals of "otherizing" Trump supporters, but should we really have to ignore the stupidity of those elected by conservatives when they exemplify greater ignorance than Trump himself?

    Digby talks about the ignorance of both voters and candidates, such as Tommy Tuberville, who cannot name the three branches of government (omitting the courts and counting Congress twice, the House and Senate). Tuberville said that WWII was fought to liberate Paris from socialism and communism. He either didn't listen to his father's war stories, or he is deliberately trying not to alienate neo-Nazis and fascists among his constituents, instead trying to link liberals to the Axis bad guys and the holocaust in an astonishing attempt at historical revisionism. Conservatives believe this stuff because they hear it on Fox and other right wing sources. Confusing the labels allows them to claim whatever negative thing they want about Democrats. And Somerby goes on confusing the labels today, here, when he accuses liberals of having the gall to be...wait for it...smart.

    It seems to me, Gessen deserves her pay and her reputation as a smart person, if she can write a competent book about fascism that doesn't link fascism with liberalism, as Jonah Goldberg did. I have been waiting for Somerby to discuss the film Idiocracy, but I suspect I will wait in vain. Trump voters defeated the most competent presidential candidate in our nation's history by siding with our historical enemy, Russia, to subvert an election, and now it continues as Trump refuses to transition to a more competent regime. But Somerby thinks Dems can't do math. If I were Somerby, I would insert a rabbit hole Lewis Carroll reference here, implying that Carroll would surely agree with me. Instead, I'll just link to Digby, who has also been discussing those down-ballot races and intelligence on the right:

    https://digbysblog.net/2020/11/the-essence-of-trumpism-is-ignorance/

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  9. " TDH: "People with conservative views have every right to hold them. Our tribe is strongly inclined to "otherize" these people, in ways which can get ugly and dumb."

    Why does Bob ignore decades of very "dumb and ugly" demonization of liberals by the right? For decades, Michael Savage has called liberals "vermin." His slogan was "To the right of Rush and to the left of God" when he hit the airwaves in 1994. By 2006, Savage had 8–10 million "Others" per week. who loved listening to Savage call people like Bob vermin. On right-wing talk radio, which is still going strong, 20 million "Others" a week love hating and "otherizing" you, Bob. And this doesn't even include the pulpits and media of the religious right, who describes liberals like you as agents of Satan. These are sources of incessant demonization of urban populations, gays, and young women who defend their rights to reproductive freedom. This is a huge part of America's information landscape, and the main sources of information for many of our poorer, older, and less-educated voters. That's a heck of a lot of "dumb and ugly" that Bob chooses to ignore.

    As for the Dems losing a few House seats and some slippage in support from minorities, minority support for Dems reached absurdly high levels when Obama was on the ticket in 2008 and 2012 -- it was unsustainable, some slippage was inevitable. Trump's absurdly high level of support among white men also went down, which is why Biden's popular vote margin increased from Hillary's 2016 margin of 2% to something approaching 4%. These factors, plus effective Republican gerrymandering, explain the House losses.

    ReplyDelete
  10. "the most xenophobic Republican president in modern memory made large gains with Latino voters"
    The obscene irony and face smacking obtuseness of this "journalist" is amazing.
    They just can't fathom they are misreporting even when stating statistics and facts that refute their premise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you suggesting that winning some Latino votes makes Trump not xenophobic?

      Delete
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  13. Are people with conservative views entitled to be ignorant?

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  14. Media criticism from The Palmer Report:

    "The media just loves talking to angry Trump voters right now. How many angry Hillary voters did the media talk to after she won by three million votes? None. The media was too busy pretending Hillary’s 65 million voters didn’t exist, because it didn’t fit their narrative about how the nation somehow hinged on Trump’s base."

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  19. Hi guys I'm Franklin , I was disorganized because i had a very small penis, about 2.0 inches soft and 4 inches hard not nice enough to satisfy my woman, i have been in so many relationship, but cut off because of my situation, i have used so many product which doctors prescribe for me, but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments on the internet about this herbal doctor called Dr Aziba and decided to contact him on whatsApp with his mobile no (+2348100368288) i saw on the internet, I decided to give his herbal product a try. he gave me some comforting words with his herbal product for Penis Enlargement, Within 1 week of it, i began to feel the enlargement of my penis, " and now it just 3 weeks of using his products my penis is about 9 inches longer, and i had to settle out with my Ex girlfriend, i was surprised when she said that she is satisfied with my sex and i have got a large penis. Am so happy, thanks to Dr Aziba I also learn that Dr Aziba also help with Breast Enlargement Hips and Bums Enlargement, Low Sperm Count, If you are in any situation with a little Penis, weak ejaculation, small breast_hips_bums do get to Dr Aziba contact him now on his mobile no, or add him up on whatsApp (+2348100368288) Email ( Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail. com )

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  20. Before I began Doctor Aziba natural penis enlargement Product I measured 4 Inches in erect length, and 3 inches in erect girth. While flaccid I measured 3.4 Inches long. I began using his product, slightly skeptical I admit, and just 2 weeks later I was very happy with my progress. I measured 7.5 inches erect length and 6.5 inches erect girth, and 5.5 inches flaccid length. I was actually quite shocked at the huge gains I’d had, and continued using the product regularly, sticking to the usage schedule rigorously. After about 2-3 weeks I am 8.2 Inches in erect length and 8.1 Inches in erect girth. I am also 7.2 inches long while flaccid. This has had a huge impact on my life, not only has my sex life improved greatly, I feel much more confident and proud.Dr Aziba Natural Penis Enlargement works! You can Get in Contact with his via Email ( Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com ) or WhatsApp him via Phone contact +2348100368288 His the solution you've been serching !

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  21. My name is Joel dwin  am from Texas US. I want to share a testimony of how Dr DADA herbal mixture product saves me from shame and disgrace, my penis was a big problem to me as the size was really so embarrassing,and i was also having weak erection problem. I cant make love to my wife and my penis was just too small, a full grown man like me having 4 inches penis and to worsen it i don't last in sex, i cant even last two minutes it was really a thing of shame to me. My wife was really tired of me because my sex life was very poor,she never enjoyed sex,i was always thinking and searching for solutions everywhere until when i saw a testimony of how Dr.DADA  herbal product have been helping people regarding their sex life, so i decided to give him a try and to my greatest surprise in less than one week of taking the herbs my penis grow to 8 inches i couldn't believe my eyes and as i speak now my penis is now 8 inches and i do not have week erection again. I can make love to my wife longer in bed. And my marriage is now stable,my wife now enjoy me very well in bed. You can contact him via drdadaspellhome7@gmail.com  or Whatsapp him +22367565345

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  22. I just want to share my experience with the entire world on how i got my husband back and saved my marriage… I was married for 5 years with 2 kids and i have been living happily with my family until things started getting ugly with me and my husband that leads us to fights and arguments almost every time… it got worse at a point that my husband filed for divorce… I tried my best to make him change his mind & stay with me cause i love him with all my heart and didn't want to loose my husband but everything just didn't work out… He moved out of the house and still went ahead to file for divorce… I pleaded and tried everything but still nothing worked. The breakthrough came when someone introduced me to this wonderful, great spell caster called Dr Mark, Who eventually helped me out… I have never been a fan of things like this but just decided to try it because I was desperate and left with no choice… He did the spell for me and things really work out as he promise and my husband have a change of mind and come back home to stay with me and the kids. And promise never to hurt me again. we are living happily as it was with the help of Dr Mark. If you are in need of any help you can contact Dr Mark Email: drmarktempleforsolution@gmail.com

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  23. Before I began Doctor Aziba natural penis enlargement Product I measured 4 Inches in erect length, and 3 inches in erect girth. While flaccid I measured 3.4 Inches long. I began using his product, slightly skeptical I admit, and just 2 weeks later I was very happy with my progress. I measured 7.5 inches erect length and 6.5 inches erect girth, and 5.5 inches flaccid length. I was actually quite shocked at the huge gains I’d had, and continued using the product regularly, sticking to the usage schedule rigorously. After about 2-3 weeks I am 8.2 Inches in erect length and 8.1 Inches in erect girth. I am also 7.2 inches long while flaccid. This has had a huge impact on my life, not only has my sex life improved greatly, I feel much more confident and proud.Dr Aziba Natural Penis Enlargement works! You can Get in Contact with his via Email: (Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com ) or WhatsApp him via Phone contact +2348100368288 His the solution you've been searching !



    Before I began Doctor Aziba natural penis enlargement Product I measured 4 Inches in erect length, and 3 inches in erect girth. While flaccid I measured 3.4 Inches long. I began using his product, slightly skeptical I admit, and just 2 weeks later I was very happy with my progress. I measured 7.5 inches erect length and 6.5 inches erect girth, and 5.5 inches flaccid length. I was actually quite shocked at the huge gains I’d had, and continued using the product regularly, sticking to the usage schedule rigorously. After about 2-3 weeks I am 8.2 Inches in erect length and 8.1 Inches in erect girth. I am also 7.2 inches long while flaccid. This has had a huge impact on my life, not only has my sex life improved greatly, I feel much more confident and proud.Dr Aziba Natural Penis Enlargement works! You can Get in Contact with his via Email: (Priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com ) or WhatsApp him via Phone contact +2348100368288 His the solution you've been searching !

    ReplyDelete
  24. My life is back!!! After 1 years of Broken marriage, my husband left me with two kids . I felt like my life was about to end I almost committed suicide, I was emotionally down for a very long time. Thanks to a spell caster called Dr Mark, which I met online. On one faithful day, as I was browsing through the internet,I came across a lot of testimonies about this particular spell caster. Some people testified that he brought their Ex lover back, some testified that he restores womb,cure cancer,and other sickness, some testified that he can cast a spell to stop divorce and so on. I also came across one particular testimony,it was about a woman called Alandre,she testified about how he brought back her Ex lover in less than 2 days, and at the end of her testimony she dropped Dr Mark e-mail address. blessedlovetemple@gmail.com After reading all these,I decided to give it a try. I contacted him via email and explained my problem to him. In just 48 hours, my husband came back to me. We solved our issues, and we are even happier than before. Dr Mark is really a gifted man and I will not stop publishing him because he is a wonderful man... If you have a problem and you are looking for a real and genuine spell caster to solve all your problems for you. blessedlovetemple@gmail.com anytime, he might be the answer to your problems.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
    two weeks ago, wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com I cannot say everything he has done for me my wife
    left me 3 years ago left with my kids I was going through online
    when I meant this wonderful man's testimony online I decided to
    give it a try and my wife is back to me now and we ar1e happily
    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
    address wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a good man
    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

    ReplyDelete
  26. My ex-husband and I had always managed to stay friendly after our divorce in February 2017. But I always wanted to get back together with him, All it took was a visit to this spell casters website last December, because my dream was to start a new year with my husband, and live happily with him.. This spell caster requested a specific love spell for me and my husband, and I accepted it. And this powerful spell caster began to work his magic. And 48 hours after this spell caster worked for me, my husband called me back for us to be together again, and he was remorseful for all his wrong deeds. My spell is working because guess what: My “husband” is back and we are making preparations on how to go to court and withdraw our divorce papers ASAP. This is nothing short of a miracle. Thank you Dr Emu for your powerful spells. Words are not enough. here is his Email: emutemple@gmail.com or call/text him on his WhatsApp +2347012841542

    He is also able to cast spell like 1: Lottery 2: Conceive 3: Breakup 4: Divorce 5: Cure for all kinds of diseases and viruses.

    ReplyDelete
  27. I just got my wife back through the help of genuine love spell caster dr Odion. Ever since Dr Odion helped me, my wife is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fix. Here his contact, WhatsApp him at:  +234813 648 2342  
    Email him at: wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com 

    ReplyDelete
  28. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
    two weeks ago, wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com I cannot say everything he has done for me my wife
    left me 3 years ago left with my kids I was going through online
    when I meant this wonderful man's testimony online I decided to
    give it a try and my wife is back to me now and we ar1e happily
    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
    address wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a good man
    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

    ReplyDelete
  29. Contact DR DADA for Your Penis Enlargement pills which is capable of turning  your sex life from a laughing stock into a paradise. i had my penis grown from 4 inches to 10 inches and my sex life is wonderful contact DR DADA today to get your penis issue fixed he also cures sickness with his herbal medication my Aunt was cured of herpes as a results of DR DADA Herbal medication he cures lots of sickness, HIV/AID, HSV 1&2, CANCER, ASTHMA, HPV, COPD and lots more get in touch with him on today and get what bothering YOU soled mail (drdadaspellhome7@gmail.com) OR WHATAPP +22367565345  

    ReplyDelete