Letters to the New York Times!

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2020

Sunday's unhelpful example(s): On Sunday, the virus of peaceful separation spread to the letters published by the New York Times:

To the Editor:

Thomas L. Friedman has written another brilliant column, outlining the deep, irreconcilable divides in our country. He describes the fear of less educated whites that the country’s population is moving heavily toward people of color and different cultural backgrounds, and that they are being left behind by a skilled technological society that they believe ignores their needs and demeans them. There is also a rural and urban divide. These differences have deeply divided America, exacerbated by the Trump presidency.

A century and a half ago America fought a civil war over issues painfully analogous to these. Perhaps it is time to consider a similar solution, but by peaceful means. The fractionalization of the country is leaving deep scars that will not heal.

Perhaps recognizing this can lead to peaceful separation of the union into red states and blue states acceptable to both sides. The states on each coast could join in a blue union, with a few states in between, perhaps even joining with Canada to unite the geographic separation.

Once again, our own blue tribe will get both coasts. We might even join with Canada!

We're not entirely sure that this will be "acceptable to both sides." For our previous discussion of such implausible cogitation, you can just click here.

Did it make sense to publish this letter? We have no idea. That said, the letter below was comically wrong on several levels. Let's start with what it said:

To the Editor:

Like [Frank] Bruni, I wonder how more than 70 million Americans could have voted for Donald Trump. I understand that many who live away from large, diverse urban areas believe that “elites” look down on them and have strong negative feelings about nonwhites and immigrants. That said, I am baffled as to why his failure to manage Covid and its economic fallout—which must have affected many directly—wasn’t more important in their electoral decisions.

Part of the answer is that many of them do not share the view that, in fact, he did fail. I heard an elderly person in Florida tell an interviewer that she thought Mr. Trump had done all he could about the virus. Yet those of us who read The Times and other mainstream media know that Mr. Trump rejected science-based recommendations. As a result we did worse than every other developed country.

Since the data don’t lie, my assumption is that those facts did not make an impression on Trump voters. Why? Because they get their news and views from sources—Fox and social media—that overwhelm them with “alternative facts.”

To make progress on the many fronts that need attention, this is a problem that must be overcome.

This letter strikes us as comically wrong. We'll take you through several steps:

We agree on one general point. In our view, Donald J. Trump's approach to the pandemic has resided just this side of lunacy from the very beginning.  There has never been a perfect way to react to this horrible situation. But the president's public statements have generally been insane.

That said, have we "done worse than every developed country?" Also, do "those of us who read The Times" know such "facts" from reading that newspaper? 

Also, "since the data don't lie," is it fair to assume that the letter-writer's factual claims "did not make an impression on Trump voters?"

Comically, the answers are basically no. Things get even dumber when you ponder the link the Times inserted into the letter's text.

Let's start with the basic facts. At present, our "total deaths to date" are not the highest in the developed world after adjusting for size of population.

We do reside near the top on this unfortunate measure. That said, after adjusting for population, the U.K.'s number is slightly worse. Spain and Belgium are still doing considerably worse, with Italy right on our tail.

How about an arguably more salient measure—current "daily or weekly deaths?" On that unfortunate measure, quite a few of our most obvious peer nations are currently doing much worse.

After adjusting for population, European nations which once seemed to have the virus licked are now recording weekly deaths at rates which significantly exceed our own. Canada and Germany are still doing better than we are, but even Germany's weekly death rate has risen to the point where it's more than half of ours.

At present, daily/weekly death rates in Spain, France, Italy and the U.K. substantially exceed our own (see data below). This could always change, of course. But "those of us who read The Times" may not be aware of such facts, especially after reading the letter the Times chose to publish this Sunday.

The self-impressed reader felt fairly sure that "those of us who read The Times" have been getting the full set of relevant facts from that great newspaper. Oddly, when the Times inserted a link into the text of his letter, the link went to a five-week-old, barely coherent report in Bloomberg. 

The Bloomberg reporter sourced her fuzzy claims to a JAMA report, to which she didn't link. The Bloomberg  report was five weeks old and largely incompetent. For unknown reasons, the Times provided a link to that report, not to its own work.

At present, major peer nations are drowning in Covid deaths. Despite the president's crazy behavior, we are not the worst in the world at the present time. That said, "those of us who read The Times" are often poorly informed, along with reams of The Others.

On the brighter side, we're rarely in doubt about our tribal superiority. In such ways, our failing nation continues to slide toward the sea.

Current weekly deaths: Below, you see Covid death counts from the past week (through November 17). When you adjust for population, our rate in nowhere near the worst in the developed world:

Deaths from Covid in the past week:
United States: 8969
France: 4067
Italy: 3983
United Kingdom: 2909
Spain: 1908
Germany: 1308
Canada: 463
When you adjust for population, our current death rate is far from the worst. Example: France's population is roughly one-sixth the size of ours. The same is true of the U.K. 

Italy's population is somewhat smaller than that. Germany's population is about one-fourth our size.

Rachel almost always forgets to adjust for population. So do the bulk of our "highly educated"  upper-end mainstream journalists. 

Such is the state of our failing nation's never-ending intellectual dysfunction. It's been like this for years and years, certainly so in the Times.


39 comments:

  1. Somerby should be informed enough to know that this separation talk was not started by "blue state" liberals. It was started as another area of grievance in deep "red states" and deep red areas of "blue states" because of stuff like gay marriage, firearms laws, civil rights, abortion and women's rights.
    Here in Illinois, there are constant petitions being circulated around "Red" downstate counties to "secede" from Chicago. Various downstate counties have placed such advisory referendums on their ballots, and they almost always pass overwhelmingly.
    Also, the NY Times letters section is supposed to give a broad taste of what the readers are thinking, not toe to Somerby's weird way of thinking.
    And by the way, the NY Times is not "Our" liberal newspaper. It is a newspaper pure and simple intended to bring a broad range of ideas and information to a wide swath of the country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There have been similar state-partitioning initiatives on the California ballot, again largely supported by red counties and eccentric Silicon valley millionaires (who want their valley to be its own state). These don't have a chance, but again, the impetus comes from conservatives but issues are a bit more diverse, including fights over water rights, environmental measures, taxes and other restrictions on personal freedom (soft drink sizes, paper bags). Our blue state liberals are pretty happy but, of course, would like to see further progressive measures, and guys like Devin Nunes lose their seats. Our red voters tend to move to Texas when they get too unhappy. That's their form of seceding.

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  2. 1. I don't accept Somerby as an arbiter of whether or not some other report is competent or not.

    2. There is a strong similarity between Somerby's self-serving "adjustment" of figures and Trump's desire to throw out votes against him in the past election.

    3. The proper authority for how well we have been doing on covid should be the CDC, but that was corrupted by politicization by Trump, another aspect of his mishandling of the pandemic.

    4. Somerby thinks that if he calls the figures into question that negates the entire argument the letter writer was making, which he never actually addresses -- did Trump supporters ignore the covid numbers in order to vote for him or were they misled by Fox? The answer is probably yes to both suggestions.

    5. These nitpicks that Somerby uses to confuse issues are unhelpful and do not demonstrate any malfeasance on the part of the NY Times or liberal sources. Those who read the NY Times were encouraged to wear masks and social distance and were informed of status of the virus, whereas those watching Fox were encouraged to fraternize, ignore the virus, trust the president's quack remedies, and were generally placed in greater danger. Somerby seems to be refusing to acknowledge that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. “European nations which once seemed to have the virus licked are now recording weekly deaths at rates which significantly exceed our own.”

    This is the key to Somerby’s trick.

    The European nations are experiencing a second wave. Meanwhile, the first wave in the US never ended.

    That is the point made here: (“COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries”
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771841)

    “Compared with other countries, the US experienced high COVID-19–associated mortality and excess all-cause mortality into September 2020. After the first peak in early spring, US death rates from COVID-19 and from all causes remained higher than even countries with high COVID-19 mortality.”

    “While the US had a lower COVID-19 mortality rate than high-mortality countries during the early spring, after May 10, all 6 high-mortality countries had fewer deaths per 100 000 than the US. For instance, between May 10 and September 19, 2020, Italy’s death rate was 9.1/100 000 while the US’s rate was 36.9/100 000. If the US had comparable death rates with most high-mortality countries beginning May 10, it would have had 44 210 to 104 177 fewer deaths (22%-52%) (Table 1). If the US had comparable death rates beginning June 7, it would have had 28% to 43% fewer reported deaths (as a percentage overall).”

    This isn’t confusing, although Somerby pretends that that Bloomberg article, which makes the same point, was.

    He also complains that the Bloomberg article is five weeks old. Well, duh. The letter writer is talking about the US response to the virus prior to the election. Obviously, the current values aren’t germane to that discussion.

    Also, Somerby doesn’t know what statistics the letter writer had in mind. They may have been different from his chosen ones. Besides, the letter writer is more concerned with the perception of Trump’s response being fed to his supporters than with specific data points.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well said. The USA never reduced the first wave to near zero like many other advanced countries did. We should expect the same bad response with the second wave.

      Why hasn't the government (or the media) explained to the American people why we couldn't have had the same success with the first wave that advanced countries like Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and even Canada had?

      Delete
  4. When Somerby complains about "Rachel" not adjusting for something, it is actually her staff who he is criticizing. No one here believes that Rachel is doing her own stats these days (although she would no doubt be better at it than Somerby is, having had actual stats training). Steve Benen writes her MaddowBlog and took over Political Animal from Kevin Drum when he went to Mother Jones. He is a solid liberal and 10 times the blogger Somerby is.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree that death rates should be normalized per population -- but it's not the only marker. Perhaps, death rates should be also normalized per population density, in which case the US and Canada might leap to the top of the list.

    PS: Any letter that refers to anything that Friedman writes as "brilliant" should be discarded out of hand. The man is the dumbest creature to walk this god's green earth.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  7. In terms of goals, the difference between red and blue America is small. Both sides want a clean environment, good education, prosperity, peace, low crime rates, racial equality, etc. The sides differ on what governmental policies will produce these outcomes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All those things require a fair dosage of...you guessed it: socialism!

      Delete
    2. That's where the two sides differ, Ilya. One side thinks a lot of socialism will help achieve these goals. The other side thinks less socialism will help achieve these goals.

      Delete
    3. If your side favors these things, David, why has it made so little progress toward them in the past 4 years?

      Delete
    4. Really? Clean environment is going to be achieved by the companies that brought us collapsing mines, oil and slurry spills? Good education will be brought to us by -- oh, that's right, charter schools, which have been failure on a large scale everywhere.
      I don't disagree that there are different approaches to solving these problems -- don't forget healthcare, by the way -- but I am yet to see a Republican proposal that doesn't begin and end with a tax cut. Although, in the case of healthcare, there was Romney -care, which Obama implemented on the national level. Ever since then, though, Republicans have been tripping over themselves trying to destroy it.
      The Orange Turd(tm) had four -- I repeat: four -- years to come up with some semblance of a proposal. Nothing. Of course, we all know that if it doesn't help him in some way, he doesn't give a shit. I am quite certain that we can agree on that, since that's pretty much a simple fact.

      Delete
    5. Agreeing with Right-wingers is still the best way to defeat their shitty arguments.

      David in Cal, have you spoken to your representatives about enacting a 100% Estate Tax Rate, or do you know longer fancy the idea that people should earn what they receive, and not just get hand-outs?

      Delete
    6. Here's an example of Trump being concerned about clean environment: https://www.npr.org/2020/11/16/935527352/trump-administration-rushes-to-sell-oil-rights-in-arctic-national-wildlife-refug?utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&fbclid=IwAR3y0CPEE6RzPtpZccQqwZzrg3EDlH3sy5jmVcwlpo_QdXd2JjLeuu-_oSc

      Delete
    7. Of course, David is incorrect.
      There is no proof anywhere that Republicans want a clean environment, good education, prosperity, peace, low crime rates, racial equality, etc.

      Delete
  8. If Somerby were any kind of media critic, he would be talking about this, as Kevin Drum does, and not supporting it by routinely quoting and linking to material that is behind a paywall and thus cannot be read or verified without spending money.

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/11/is-the-substack-revolution-here-to-stay/

    ReplyDelete
  9. Why does Somerby follow mainstream media in lockstep by insisting that we must keep interviewing Trump voters in order to understand The Other?

    Eric Boelert rightly points out that this is a form of campaigning for Trump by normalizing the people who support him (via Digby):

    https://digbysblog.net/2020/11/trump-voters-arent-news/

    ReplyDelete
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  17. My life is back!!! After 1 years of Broken marriage, my husband left me with two kids . I felt like my life was about to end I almost committed suicide, I was emotionally down for a very long time. Thanks to a spell caster called Dr Mark, which I met online. On one faithful day, as I was browsing through the internet,I came across a lot of testimonies about this particular spell caster. Some people testified that he brought their Ex lover back, some testified that he restores womb,cure cancer,and other sickness, some testified that he can cast a spell to stop divorce and so on. I also came across one particular testimony,it was about a woman called Alandre,she testified about how he brought back her Ex lover in less than 2 days, and at the end of her testimony she dropped Dr Mark e-mail address. blessedlovetemple@gmail.com After reading all these,I decided to give it a try. I contacted him via email and explained my problem to him. In just 48 hours, my husband came back to me. We solved our issues, and we are even happier than before. Dr Mark is really a gifted man and I will not stop publishing him because he is a wonderful man... If you have a problem and you are looking for a real and genuine spell caster to solve all your problems for you. blessedlovetemple@gmail.com anytime, he might be the answer to your problems.

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  18. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
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    left me 3 years ago left with my kids I was going through online
    when I meant this wonderful man's testimony online I decided to
    give it a try and my wife is back to me now and we ar1e happily
    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
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    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

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  19. My ex-husband and I had always managed to stay friendly after our divorce in February 2017. But I always wanted to get back together with him, All it took was a visit to this spell casters website last December, because my dream was to start a new year with my husband, and live happily with him.. This spell caster requested a specific love spell for me and my husband, and I accepted it. And this powerful spell caster began to work his magic. And 48 hours after this spell caster worked for me, my husband called me back for us to be together again, and he was remorseful for all his wrong deeds. My spell is working because guess what: My “husband” is back and we are making preparations on how to go to court and withdraw our divorce papers ASAP. This is nothing short of a miracle. Thank you Dr Emu for your powerful spells. Words are not enough. here is his Email: emutemple@gmail.com or call/text him on his WhatsApp +2347012841542

    He is also able to cast spell like 1: Lottery 2: Conceive 3: Breakup 4: Divorce 5: Cure for all kinds of diseases and viruses.

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  20. I just got my wife back through the help of genuine love spell caster dr Odion. Ever since Dr Odion helped me, my wife is very stable, faithful and closer to me than before. You can also contact this spell caster and get your relationship fix. Here his contact, WhatsApp him at:  +234813 648 2342  
    Email him at: wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com 

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  21. The great Dr.Mark everyone has been talking about on the internet has also helped me with his love spell last week Wednesday he restored my broken relationship and brought my ex back to me. I have been with a broken heart for the past 6months after my boyfriend broke up with me but after i have read online about Dr.Mark love spell i was really pleased to contact him for the chance that i have got to get my ex back, after Dr.Mark has cast the spell for me my boyfriend came back to me after 48 hours which is last week Friday. With so much joy in my heart I want to appreciate Dr.Mark for his great help he rendered to me. incase you need his help you can also
    contact him via his email address Blessedlovetemple@gmail.com  

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  22. This is very simple method about penis Enlargement Herbal medicine is 100% guaranteed for Penis Enlargement and Good Erection, The main reason why lots of men are finding it difficult to Enlarge penis and last long during xxx is because they so believe in medical report and drugs made of chemicals which cause damages to the body system. so I'm recommending Y'all fellow men facing this mess to contact Dr Aziba WhatsApp via +2348100368288 or Email : priestazibasolutioncenter@gmail.com for Natural Herbal Penis Enlargement Product

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  23. I just want the whole world to know about this spell caster I met
    two weeks ago, wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com I cannot say everything he has done for me my wife
    left me 3 years ago left with my kids I was going through online
    when I meant this wonderful man's testimony online I decided to
    give it a try and my wife is back to me now and we ar1e happily
    married again cause is too much to put in writing all I can say is
    thank you very much am very happy .and does alot of spell
    including Love Spell
    Death Spell
    Money Spell
    Power Spell
    Success Spell
    Sickness Spell
    Pregnancy Spell
    Marriage Spell
    Job Spell
    Protection Spell
    Lottery Spell
    Court Case Spell
    Luck Spell etc. In case you need his help contact him on this email
    address wisdomspiritualtemple@gmail.com he is a good man
    thanks.whatsapp number +234813 648 2342

    ReplyDelete
  24. Contact DR DADA for Your Penis Enlargement pills which is capable of turning  your sex life from a laughing stock into a paradise. i had my penis grown from 4 inches to 10 inches and my sex life is wonderful contact DR DADA today to get your penis issue fixed he also cures sickness with his herbal medication my Aunt was cured of herpes as a results of DR DADA Herbal medication he cures lots of sickness, HIV/AID, HSV 1&2, CANCER, ASTHMA, HPV, COPD and lots more get in touch with him on today and get what bothering YOU soled mail (drdadaspellhome7@gmail.com) OR WHATAPP +22367565345  

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  25. How i was able to have my ex back with me again


    Hello everyone i want to testify of the great and powerful spell caster named Dr IYAYA who brought back my ex who left me and got engaged to another girl,We where happy together when all of a sudden he just change he used to call me every morning and and night before going to bed but all that stopped when i call him he yell at me and told me he didn't want to have anything to do with me anymore i was so sad and confused i didn't know what to do then i went online to search on how to get back my ex then i found an article where someone was talking about how the great and powerful Dr IYAYA helped her and she left his email address i took it and contacted him i told him my problem he only smiled and told me to relax everything will be OK i did everything he asked me to do and he assured me that after 24hrs he will be back,To my greatest surprise the next morning it was my boyfriend he came back knelling and begging for me to accept him back now we are so happy together he can also help you contact him Here: Doctoriyaya@gmail.com you can also reach Dr IYAYA throungh WhatsApp Number: +2349055785722
    If you wish to know more about Dr IYAYA visit he website you may found your solution there www.https://dr-iyaya-herbal-remedy.webnode.com

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