FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2020
Who lost (track of) Europe?: Cable pundits keep insisting that we're tops in covid deaths.
In fact, after adjusting for population, current daily / weekly death rates in many European nations are plainly worse than ours. Yesterday, we cited this fact, linking to Kevin Drum's instructive "Chart of the Day."
As Drum's chart shows, current death rates in many Euro nations are substantially worse than ours.
Speaking extremely slowly, this doesn't mean that our own death rate is good. It simply means that their current death rates are worse.
Today, we'll answer a few questions about this state of affairs. To wit:
Why should anyone care about Europe? Who cares if their death rates are worse than ours?
Also, why should anyone care if pundits keep making an imprecise or inaccurate claim? If it helps us pile on Trump, why shouldn't we be grateful for their constant fuzzy or inaccurate statements?
Our answers go something like this:
No one has to care about Europe, or about anything else. It's fairly clear that nobody does. Such is the fairly obvious state of our failing culture.
That said:
Many of these European nations seemed to have the virus licked not too long ago. The fact that their situations have spun out of control so quickly could have served as a warning for us lunkheads Over Here.
Concerning persistent pundit misstatement, we'll only offer this:
It's stunning to see how few analytical tools our high-end journalists have. To wit:
As people have known for thousands of years, there's a difference between a "lie" and a "falsehood" or a "misstatement." Routinely, this blindingly obvious point seems to lie beyond the ken of our highest-paid media stars.
Simply put, they don't get it. Amazingly, such ancient distinctions lie beyond their ken.
Similarly, there's a difference between "total deaths to date" and "current daily or weekly death rate." And no, it doesn't make sense to draw certain comparisons between two countries without adjusting for the size of their differing populations.
If major journalists can't gasp such blindingly obvious points, what can they be expected to understand and explain? Routinely, they're left with one tool alone:
They're left with the tool of Standard Group Narrative. Memorize, orate, rinse and repeat. At the present time, it's pretty much all we have.
Our upper-end culture lies in a state of remarkably low cognition. Donald J. Trump is a lunatic, but he didn't invent this state of affairs.
We'll be discussing this cognitive shortfall all through the course of next week.
Psychiatric disorder also seems to be part of the mix. We'll be discussing that too. Needless to say, you'll see this nowhere else!
Meanwhile, west of Cali: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia?
They're sill experiencing very few deaths. That doesn't get talked about either!
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Current Daily deaths per million per Drum’s chart:
ReplyDeleteDenmark: ~16
US:~3
But:
Cumulative deaths/million:
Denmark: 134
US: 781
They are spiking. It’s being widely reported. Fears of a spike in the US have been discussed at least since the summer.
Wonder what Denmark did to keep its cumulative numbers vastly lower than ours?
Somerby and Drum's take on this is really dumb.
DeleteIn areas of similar area, population, and density, the US is worst in the world in death rate. In fact American states make up most of the the ten worst areas for death rate. NY's death rate, for example, of 1757/million dwarfs all other countries. NY is not even our worst state.
Interestingly, CA has one of the better death rates for a large dense area. CA has been abandoned by Republicans, given no help from Trump, and yet provides the country with most of it's economic engine (CA is the fifth largest economy in the world).
LA County is the worst area in CA, it's large working class population and high rent have combined to provide little patience among the locals for staying at home. I live in LA, much prefer it to the snobbish elites of SF, but I am astonished to see many of my neighbors put their self interest over the welfare of society.
CA supplies 80% of the fresh produce consumed by the rest of the nation.
DeleteOne key difference between CA and especially LA and other places has been consistent leadership from Mayor to Governor, relaxation of restrictions when possible but strict enforcement during outbreaks, backed by threats to shut off water and power to non-compliant businesses and homes. LA has not tolerated individualist Trump revolts against restrictions, the way other states have. Further, by designating different levels of concern on the county level, the Governor has not punished all areas for outbreaks in localities, and most importantly, has coordinated efforts to prevent hospitals from being overrun.
CA is an excellent example of what leadership can do to mitigate the pandemic. As the rest of the country has struggled with this latest peak in cases, CA has held steady because of the measures taken at all levels from city to state.
I too live in CA, in a Trump-supporting semi-rural area, but people are wearing masks here and observing precautions when interacting with strangers, if not with friends and family. This suggests to me that even resistant conservatives will go along with the program if there is strong, coordinated leadership throughout the state.
“Many of these European nations seemed to have the virus licked not too long ago.”
ReplyDeleteNo one—no one thought the virus was “licked.”
Everyone, except Trump and his cretins, was predicting a second wave.
Everyone.
"Also, why should anyone care if pundits keep making an imprecise or inaccurate claim? "
ReplyDeleteSomerby insists on using a different statistic than some journalist and then calling theirs wrong when it is simply measuring some other aspect of covid experience.
One cannot decide which statistic is correct without knowing the purpose of the discussion, what the statistic is meant to be showing. Somerby often neglects that context.
It is true that some statistics make Trump look worse than others. When the purpose is to conceal or minimize covid deaths or cases in order to make Trump look better, then the choice of statistic is part of a propagandistic argument.
Often, the main disagreement between some journalist and Somerby's choice of statistic is that Somerby insists upon the measure that makes Trump look better, objecting to the one that makes Trump look worse.
Then, we have to ask why Somerby is investing so much effort into minimizing the damage Trump has done to our country, instead of impressing upon people (before the election) the magnitude of his failure to contain covid?
There is no reason to consider Somerby as an objective purveyor of information in this situation. He has not earned that status through his behavior in this blog and his simple insistence that his figures are "correct" whereas those of long-time journalists are not, is self-serving.
"And no, it doesn't make sense to draw certain comparisons between two countries without adjusting for the size of their differing populations."
ReplyDeleteIt depends on what question is under discussion. If I were to ask, in total, which country has had the most deaths, then adjusting for population size would make no sense. Similarly, if I were to ask, which country has bought the most caskets from American manufacturers, it would make no sense to adjust by population size. The discussion asks for totals, not rates (coffins per million). If I were to ask, in which country around the world have the most people died, it wouldn't be right to report an adjusted figure. Why? Because the asker would then have to multiply by millions in that country's population in order to figure out the totals. That would be extra work using numbers that may not be readily at hand. You report the statistic that answers the question that has been asked. Even when making cross-country comparisons.
If you want to know "how many doses of vaccine will be needed to vaccinate everyone in the USA" then you do not divide by population size and report a dose per million figure. You would take the population size, exclude babies and pregnant women, multiply by 2 because 2 spaced doses are needed and come up with your figure. The statistic would thus fit the question asked.
Somerby's notion that there is a single best or correct statistic to use is garbage and no statistics class would have taught him that. That's one way that we know Somerby is pretending an expertise he does not have.
"Psychiatric disorder also seems to be part of the mix. We'll be discussing that too. "
ReplyDeleteSomerby said this immediately after referring to the dumbness of upper-end culture. Does this mean he is going to call all of us crazy too?
Somerby has gone off the deep end. He is ranting that everyone is dumb except himself and Sanjay Gupta. Now he wants to ascribe mental illness to who? The upper-end culture?
He is becoming the Rudy Guiliani of bloggers. There is something paranoid about claiming that we are all doomed, the end is nigh, Mr. Trump's war is upon us, and we are not only stupid but also crazy. For his own good, someone needs to call Somerby's relatives and tell them he isn't doing well shut-in with only his pear tree for company.
I find the term "Eurodeath" offensive. First, Europe didn't create covid. Second, this isn't some fad or trend we are discussing, but a nasty form of death by virus. Third, if Somerby has no respect for those who have died of covid and no respect for Europe as it struggles with the same pandemic as we are enduring, he should understand that use of tabloid language to talk about covid numbers isn't funny, nice, respectful, or worthy of someone who pretends to be a liberal (you know, one of the non-Trump Others who actually cares about people).
ReplyDeleteIt is Somerby who keeps returning to a discussion of death statistics, day after day. It is almost as if he thinks that reducing ugly death to numbers will provide some distance or immunity from what those numbers represent, loss.
ReplyDeleteReducing heinous death to numbers is how the military enables itself to commit war, it is how doctors face the certainty that they cannot always heal, but it is no way to relate to people on a blog who are losing loved ones to a virus that cannot be contained by individual efforts. Dehumanizing tragedy in order to cope is fine as long as you don't lose humanity altogether and become a monster (like Trump is). Somerby treads that fine line today, but he reveals his preoccupation with covid by returning again and again to this subject, while he reveals his inability to cope effectively with it, by using numbers to justify Trump's malfeasance, unable to face what Trump has done to us all. We have enough tragedy around us without Somerby compounding it. Someone, please, wrap Somerby in a blanket and take him to someone who can help him.
Since the US response to Covid has essentially been 50 separate responses, the overall death rate masks the higher death rates in individual states.
ReplyDeleteFor example, North Dakota has a cumulative death per million of 1,073 and their current daily deaths per million (7 day average) is over 18, which is higher than all of the European countries on Drum’s chart.
People who don't care about the deaths of other people, even in Europe, are called sociopaths.
ReplyDeleteThe question isn't why should we care about Eurodeaths, but what kind of person doesn't care?
Why should we care about Somerby? Someone remind me, please.
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